A new cycle of tension

These recent developments mark an increasingly tense relationship between South Korea and North Korea.

Pyongyang's launch of a military reconnaissance satellite and the abandonment of the CMA by both sides have led to a new spiral of tension on the Korean Peninsula. (Source: KCNA)

From a spy satellite...

First, there's the story of North Korea's military satellite launch. On November 21, the country successfully launched the Malligyong-1 military reconnaissance satellite, in what it considers an exercise of Pyongyang's "legitimate right of self-defense."

On November 28, North Korea's state news agency KCNA quoted the Foreign Ministry as rejecting criticism from the United States and nine other Security Council members regarding Pyongyang's satellite launch. They stated that the move was "a legitimate and fair way to exercise the right of self-defense, and a thoughtful and carefully monitored response… to serious military action by the United States and its supporters."

The country asserted: "North Korea's newly launched military reconnaissance satellite has successfully captured images of the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson and military bases in Hawaii." North Korea emphasized that Pyongyang may launch more military satellites in the future.

Meanwhile, South Korea confirmed the satellite had entered orbit and said it needed more time to determine if it was functioning properly. However, some speculated that the launch was made possible with technological assistance from Russia. More importantly, in response, Seoul officially suspended part of the Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA), signed in 2018. Shortly afterward, on November 25, Pyongyang completely abrogated the agreement. So what is the CMA? Why is it important?

The end of CMA…

On September 19, 2018, following a series of historic meetings, then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed the CMA. Both sides agreed to “completely cease all hostile actions against each other” through measures such as ending military exercises near the border, limiting live-fire drills, imposing no-fly zones, and maintaining a hotline. The purpose of the agreement was to reduce military tensions on the peninsula and build mutual trust.

Writing in The Diplomat , international relations expert Kim So Young at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies argues that Pyongyang's launch of a spy satellite, while violating UN Security Council sanctions by using long-range ballistic missiles, did not violate the CMA agreement.

According to her, by partially suspending the agreement, Seoul suspended Article 1, Clause 3 concerning the no-fly zone for all types of aircraft crossing the Military Demarcation Line (MDL), effective from November 1, 2018. This clause prohibits fixed-wing aircraft from operating within 40km of the MDL in the eastern area and 20km in the western area. Propeller aircraft are prohibited within 10km of the MDL; unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are prohibited within 10km in the eastern area and 25km in the western area; and balloons are prohibited within 25km of the MDL.

Supporters of the CMA argue that the agreement has eased military tensions along the inter-Korean border, as well as the risk of military conflict. However, President Yoon Suk-yeol's administration and the ruling party criticize it as merely nominal, as South Korea is the only party to uphold and strictly adhere to it. Accordingly, Seoul accuses Pyongyang of 17 violations of the CMA since its signing. Furthermore, critics of the agreement have long argued that the CMA weakens the ability to monitor North Korea. Therefore, suspending this provision would allow South Korea to continue its surveillance and reconnaissance activities along the border.

For its part, after Seoul partially suspended the CMA, Pyongyang canceled the entire agreement and increased its military presence at the border. North Korea accused South Korea of ​​breaking the agreement and being responsible for increasing the risk of conflict.

On November 28, the South Korean Ministry of Defense discovered that North Korea was constructing guard posts at border locations and deploying troops and heavy weapons. Meanwhile, The Guardian (UK) reported that a photograph sent to journalists by the South Korean Ministry of Defense that same day showed North Korean soldiers constructing temporary guard posts and moving what appeared to be recoilless rifles, portable anti-tank weapons, or light artillery to a newly constructed trench.

Previously, according to the CMA, both sides had dismantled or disarmed 11 guard posts located within the heavily guarded border area known as the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). South Korea now has 50 guard posts and North Korea has 150. Prior to this change, the South Korean Ministry of Defense stated: “Our military will closely monitor North Korea’s actions while maintaining full readiness to retaliate immediately… based on enhanced coordinated action with the U.S.”

In the current context, the risk of conflict between the two Koreas is likely to increase. What would happen if South Korea reconsidered its agreement with Pyongyang regarding military operations on land and at sea? Only time will tell.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/ban-dao-trieu-tien-vong-xoay-cang-thang-moi-252042.html