How does the prolonged Gaza conflict affect the parties and the world?

A prolonged conflict could have catastrophic consequences for the Palestinian people in the already devastated territory, experts say. For Israel, the conflict could further damage its economy, domestic politics , international standing and foreign relations. The conflict could also impact US politics, especially as President Joe Biden prepares for the November election.

"It's been a grueling journey. We see the number of casualties day after day... On top of that, Israel is paying an increasing price in terms of politics, diplomacy, information and reputation," said Assaf Orion, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv and former head of the strategic planning department of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

Palestinians displaced from southern Gaza by Israeli military offensive. Photo: Reuters

More suffering for Palestinians

The situation in Gaza is deteriorating by the day. Continued conflict is likely to significantly increase the suffering of the people there.

In February, when the death toll in the territory stood at 28,000, researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and the Johns Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Medicine predicted that if the conflict continued to escalate, the total death toll would exceed 72,000 by August. If the impact of conflict-related disease outbreaks were included, the death toll could then reach nearly 86,000.

Aid agencies have warned that civilians in many parts of Gaza are suffering from severe hunger. More air strikes and displacement in the south of the strip only exacerbate the humanitarian crisis.

Delivering aid to Gaza is extremely difficult. This week, the United Nations warned that humanitarian aid into Gaza had dropped by 67% following Israel’s military offensive in Rafah in early May.

"We once again call for a ceasefire and the release of all hostages. The longer this war lasts, the more Israeli and Palestinian civilians will suffer," said Juliette Touma, communications director at the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA).

The Future of the Israeli Prime Minister

Experts say both Hamas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu see benefits in prolonging the conflict, as their political survival depends on it.

A post-war scenario is unlikely for either side: Israel is committed to destroying Hamas, and Netanyahu could face accountability for failing to prevent the October 7 attacks that sparked the conflict. In addition, new elections in Israel could oust the long-serving prime minister.

Mr Netanyahu also faces intense pressure from hard-line members of his coalition, some of whom have warned they will leave the government if he accepts a ceasefire before Hamas is removed.

Israeli diplomacy

Israel could face further diplomatic isolation if the conflict drags on. The Israeli government is increasingly under fire on the world stage, especially from some of its closest allies in Europe.

Israel has recalled its ambassadors from three European countries after they formally recognized a Palestinian state. It has also asked several South American and other countries to downgrade diplomatic relations.

A prolonged conflict could also further delay the prospect of normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, which Netanyahu had indicated was a top priority for his government before the October 7 attack. The conflict has derailed those efforts, and the Jewish state has faced harsh criticism from Riyadh and other Arab countries that have diplomatic relations with Israel, including Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Egypt, the first Arab country to recognize Israel, has warned its neighbor not to station troops too close to its border. At least one Egyptian security officer was killed in a shooting on the Egypt-Gaza border this week.

Impact on the Israeli economy

The conflict had a severe impact on the Israeli economy immediately after October 7. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Israel's economic output fell 21.7% compared to the previous year.

In April, credit rating agency S&P Global downgraded Israel's credit rating, a measure of the government's ability to repay its debt, and warned of further downgrades in the future. It predicted the government's budget deficit would widen, largely due to increased defense spending.

Moody's Investor Service also downgraded Israel's rating, warning that the conflict would become a significant economic and political burden for Israel in the long term.

Israeli soldiers fire artillery at a tank after returning from the Gaza Strip on Israel's southern border, January 1. Photo: Amir Levy

Israel has fought many conflicts since its founding in 1948, but this is the most expensive. According to the Israeli news site Ynet, as of January, the Israeli military was spending $272 million a day on the war. At the time, the total cost was estimated at $60 billion, including military expenditures, damage to civilian infrastructure, and compensation to Israeli businesses. This figure is likely to have increased significantly since then.

Mr. Plesner noted that the government has not taken the necessary steps to minimize the economic damage. “There is not enough funding to cover the costs of the conflict, including military and civilian costs. The longer the conflict lasts, the deeper its economic impact.”

Biden's re-election prospects

The war is also having profound consequences for domestic politics and is weighing on Mr Biden’s re-election bid, with the president facing a domestic backlash from young voters and Arab Americans.

Mr. Biden has consistently supported Israel, providing it with virtually unconditional diplomatic and legal protection on the international stage. However, his administration has also imposed unprecedented sanctions on the Jewish state. Despite these efforts, the conflict continues, civilian casualties are rising, and famine is spreading in Gaza.

Hoai Phuong (according to CNN)

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/xung-dot-gaza-keo-dai-anh-huong-nhu-the-nao-den-cac-ben-va-the-gioi-post297800.html