Supply pressure continues to weaken sugar prices

Buying and selling power continued to struggle in the world commodity market in the session of December 3. However, the overwhelming buying power in the metal group reversed the trend, pulling the MXV-Index up nearly 0.4% to 2,377 points at the close. In contrast, the sugar market remained under pressure as abundant supply from India and Brazil continued to weigh on prices.

Supply pressure continues to weaken sugar prices

On the other hand, the industrial raw materials group recorded overwhelming selling pressure with 8 out of 9 items simultaneously closing in red. Of which, sugar price 11 recorded a decrease of more than 0.3% to 329 USD/ton, white sugar price also lost more than 0.7% to 426 USD/ton.

According to MXV, world sugar prices continue to be under downward pressure due to excess supply right from the start of the season. In India - the world's second-largest sugar producer, output has increased sharply in the first two months of the 2025-2026 sugarcane crushing season, which began in October. Industry organizations said sugar production increased by up to 43% compared to the same period last year. This unusual development is mainly due to higher sugar production rates and accelerated sugarcane crushing progress in major producing states. This has increased concerns about oversupply, thereby continuing to put pressure on world sugar prices.

Meanwhile, weather conditions in Brazil are turning more favorable, with the Midwest and the north-central south of the country likely to see significant rainfall from the latter part of this week into next week, according to World Weather Inc. The timely rains could improve crop quality and production conditions, giving a boost to the sugar crop in the world’s largest producer.

However, the decline in sugar prices was somewhat limited as the production situation in Thailand showed some unfavorable signs. Heavy rains in November caused widespread flooding, forcing experts to lower their yield forecasts. In addition, the white leaf disease is spreading, especially in the Northeast, affecting about 30% of the sugarcane area, making it unlikely that Thailand's total sugarcane output for the season will reach 100 million tons.

In the domestic market of Vietnam, sugar transactions during the week were quite gloomy and clearly differentiated. In the North, the selling price was stable, but purchasing power was weak (RS Nghe An at 17,150 VND/kg, Vang Lam Son 18,700 VND/kg). The Central region had abundant supply, causing sugar prices to slightly decrease to around 16,250-16,300 VND/kg. The South and Ho Chi Minh City recorded increased supply thanks to imports from the Central region, Long An and Myanmar, helping prices remain stable at 16,600 to 16,800 VND/kg. Particularly in the Western region such as Can Tho and An Giang, with limited supply of granulated sugar, retail prices remained high at around 17,100 VND/kg.

COMEX copper prices hit 5-month high

At the end of yesterday's trading session, the metal group was covered in green when 9 out of 10 items increased in price. In particular, COMEX copper attracted attention when it quickly rebounded after the downward adjustment session last Tuesday. Before that, the price of this metal had also experienced 5 consecutive increasing sessions. At the end of the session, COMEX copper price recorded a recovery of 2.8%, reaching 11,880.7 USD/ton.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the price of this commodity has climbed back to its highest level since last July in the context of the market receiving support from the prolonged weakness of the USD and tight supply.

Yesterday, the Dollar Index (DXY) continued to weaken for the 8th consecutive session, losing another 0.47% and stopping at 98.87 points. The weakening of the greenback made USD-denominated commodities more attractive to investors using other currencies, contributing to the recovery of copper prices during the session.

Pressure on the USD comes from market expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to cut interest rates at its meeting next week. The newly released ADP private sector employment report shows that businesses in the US cut 32,000 jobs in November, mainly at small businesses. Sectors with large reductions include professional and business services (26,000 jobs), information industry (20,000 jobs) and manufacturing (18,000 jobs). The weak labor market situation has reinforced expectations that the Fed will have a loose monetary policy to stimulate growth and stabilize employment.

Meanwhile, concerns about supply shortages continue to exist, supporting copper prices to continuously increase in recent times. According to data from INE, copper production in Chile in October decreased by 7% compared to the same period last year, to 458,405 tons. Previously, the Chilean State Copper Commission (Cochilco) forecast that copper production for the whole year 2025 would increase only slightly by 0.1% to 5.51 million tons due to a decrease in output at some large mines.

Tight supplies have prompted the world’s top copper miner Codelco to raise premiums for refined copper contracts sold to the US and China. Codelco is offering US customers a record premium of more than $500 a tonne and has proposed a $350 a tonne premium for Chinese companies in 2026, up nearly fourfold from $89 a tonne this year, according to market information.

Data from LSEG shows that as of December 2, copper inventories at COMEX depositories reached a record high of 434,283 tons. A report released by the US Geological Survey (USGS) said that in 2024, the US imported about 810,000 tons of refined copper, equivalent to nearly half of domestic consumption demand.

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