When is the European Union (EU) ready to expand?

“You are part of our family, your future lies in our union and our union would be incomplete without you,” European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen said last year to Ukraine and nine other countries patiently queuing to become members of the European Union (EU).

The EU's top leader has repeatedly reiterated his invitation to join the bloc but has never set a date for when that would happen.

Reply as soon as possible

Russia's military campaign in Ukraine has brought EU enlargement back to the top of the alliance's agenda, adding three more countries to the list of potential candidates.

“It is too late for current EU member states to wake up to the idea that they will have to reform internally,” said Steven Blockmans, research director at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS).

“Enlargement is not only back on the agenda, it has become one of the top three issues leaders are tackling,” Modern Diplomacy quoted an EU diplomat as saying.

Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia were added to the official list of candidates last summer, which already includes Albania, Serbia, Kosovo, Türkiye, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Leaders attend the Ukraine-Balkan Summit in Athens, Greece, August 21, 2023. Photo: Kyiv Independent

European Parliament (EP) President Roberta Metsola has called for formal EU accession talks to begin with Ukraine and Moldova next year. High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and EC Vice-President Josep Borrell has said the door is open for Georgia to join the EU, but stressed that Tbilisi “still has a lot of work to do”.

Meanwhile, the EC chief has admitted that attention must now also be focused on the remaining issue of the accession of the Western Balkan countries.

“We have to discuss what the decision-making process will be. We have to discuss how to allocate the common funding that we have, what are the common policies that we follow? These are very principled questions that we have to ask each other. We have to answer these questions as soon as possible, because it will take time for us to come to a conclusion,” Ms. von der Leyen said last month.

While Ukraine and Moldova are currently the leading potential candidates, a senior EU diplomat warned that nothing will happen to speed up the process until there is a greater call from within the EU.

“Nothing will happen until there is maximum political pressure. Why would member states agree to an expansion that is contrary to the status quo?” the diplomat said.

"Nightmare" of internal reform

Many questions will need to be answered when it comes to EU enlargement. For example: What impact will enlargement have on the already-stressed EU budget?

How much will the EU budget, currently 186 billion euros, increase after enlargement? Will the top three members – Germany, France and Italy – be willing to contribute more? Would Poland, Greece or Hungary be happy to move from being net beneficiaries of EU funding to being net contributors?

Then there is the question of the size of the European Parliament (EP) – which currently consists of 705 lawmakers representing 27 member states. Will EP members have to move up the benches to make room for more politicians from new member states to join what could become the world’s largest parliament? Will the political balance tilt to the left or the right?

To put things in perspective, consider Ukraine. With a pre-conflict population of 44 million, 3 million less than Spain and 3 million more than Poland, Ukraine could expect to have 50-60 seats in the EP after joining the bloc. The question is how many of the 73 seats left vacant by Brexit will Ukrainians be able to win, and how many will be new? Or will EU enlargement make the EP too bloated to function?

European Parliament (EP) President Roberta Metsola opens a plenary session in Strasbourg, April 2023. Photo: EP News

Ultimately, any of the current 27 EU member states can veto another country's accession, making domestic politics a powerful factor in deciding which candidates will join the EU and which will not.

If an EU member state finds any of these questions likely to offend its voters, it could act to block enlargement.

It is clear that EU leaders will need to confront growing pains if they are to realise their ambitions. There will likely be fierce debate between governments across Europe as officials weigh the suitability of candidate countries, and then there is the “nightmare” prospect of reforming the EU’s internal decision-making processes to accommodate a much larger bloc.

Last week, European Council President Charles Michel urged politicians to start working on EU reforms, aiming to be ready for the bloc to expand by 2030. “There is still a lot to do. It will be difficult and sometimes painful. For future member states and for the EU,” he said .

Minh Duc (According to Modern Diplomacy, Politics EU)

Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/bao-gio-lien-minh-chau-au-eu-san-sang-mo-rong-a626227.html