Bitcoin at its peak: The boom is over, a new story begins?

(Dan Tri) - Bitcoin has quietly reached a peak of $118,000. The market is no longer boiling but calm, led by institutional money and methodical investment strategies.

White House push and Wall Street response

In early July, President Donald Trump, in his usual assertive style, announced a series of new tariffs, targeting countries from Brazil to Malaysia with duties ranging from 20% to 50%.

Immediately, global financial markets were in turmoil. Fears of a new trade war were rife, and stock indexes were in the red. Amidst the chaos, one asset quietly went against the tide. Without much fanfare or drama, bitcoin began its ascent.

A few days later, the price of bitcoin officially surpassed the $118,403 mark, setting a new all-time high (ATH). This breakout was not the result of a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) from retail investors as in the past. Instead, it was fueled by two main, solid, and systematic drivers:

Huge ETF Inflows: In the first days of July alone, spot bitcoin ETFs have attracted a net inflow of more than $1.2 billion. This inflow, coming from names like BlackRock and Fidelity, is not just a number, but a strong vote of confidence from the traditional financial world.

Geopolitics : Trump’s tariff moves have inadvertently become a powerful catalyst, driving investors to bitcoin as a digital “safe haven.” As confidence in traditional channels falters, bitcoin has once again proven its appeal as a hedge against risk, a more resilient version of gold.

But the story doesn’t end there. An executive order issued by Mr. Trump later, calling for the establishment of a strategic bitcoin reserve for the United States—a “virtual Fort Knox for digital gold”—officially propelled bitcoin from a fringe asset to the center of the nation’s economic thinking.

“When a sitting government considers adding bitcoin to its national reserves, it changes the entire global risk framework. This not only legitimizes bitcoin, but also forces other institutions and governments to act,” said Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group.

The Silent Transformation: From the Wild West to the Rhythm of Wall Street

The most surprising thing about this rally is not the $118,000 figure, but its "silence".

Historically, bitcoin’s price surge has been accompanied by market turbulence, with volatility soaring to 80-90%. But this time, things are different. Despite a 68% increase in price from $70,000 late last year, volatility measures have plummeted.

According to data from Volmex Finance, the BVIV index (which measures 30-day implied volatility) has fallen from 70% to just around 40%, its lowest level since October 2023. Similarly, 30-day realized volatility has also fallen from a peak of 85% at the beginning of the year to just 28%.

In simple terms, bitcoin is rising steadily, steadily, and… boringly, more like a blue-chip stock on the stock exchange than a volatile crypto asset.

“The decoupling between spot prices and volatility shows that the market has matured, especially with the participation of institutional investors,” said Pulkit Goyal, head of trading at Orbit Markets. “This is no longer a retail speculative craze.”

This “maturity” is the clearest sign that bitcoin is entering a new era, where the rules of the game are rewritten by smart money and professional financial strategies.

Bitcoin’s latest breakout comes after the coin broke through the key resistance level of $111,000 earlier this week. Within a few days, BTC’s price jumped nearly 9% and reached a new high of $118,403 (Photo: Bitget).

Inside the Machine: How the Elite Keep a Grip on Change

So what forces are holding back the untamed horse called bitcoin? The answer lies in derivatives and institutional investor strategies.

One key strategy is “covered calls.” Imagine an institution holding a large amount of bitcoin. Instead of just waiting for the price to rise, they can “rent” that potential upside by selling call options at a higher price in the future. In return, they receive a premium, creating a steady cash flow.

ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT have opened the door for institutional investors to execute strategies that generate returns with controlled risk, explained Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata. The widespread call option selling has created selling pressure on the volatility index, pushing it lower even as the underlying asset price is rising.

Market makers also play an important role. Their job is to ensure liquidity in the market. When institutions sell call options in droves, market makers are forced to take the opposite side, meaning they “buy” the volatility.

To hedge their own risk (called vega risk), they must continuously sell other options contracts in the market. This loop creates an invisible drag, suppressing the overall volatility of the entire market.

This is a game for big financial minds, a game that requires capital, knowledge and complex tools - something that small investors can hardly participate in.

An interesting paradox is unfolding: while institutions are quietly accumulating, the retail investor crowd is skeptical and discouraged. Data analytics platform Santiment points out that crowd sentiment is low, with many people withdrawing from the market.

"History has shown that when retail investors panic, that's often when the smart money starts buying quietly," Santiment said.

That divergence shows that the market is no longer driven by the emotions of the crowd. Instead, it is driven by the logic of large capital flows. Whales do not need markets to be volatile to make money; they can make money from stability, from small but steady premiums, and from the accumulation of assets over the long term.

The Road Ahead: $135,000 or a Sudden Derailment?

With solid growth momentum and a supportive macro backdrop (weak USD, rate cut expectations), many experts are eyeing higher price targets. The psychological threshold of $135,000 is seen as the next short-term target. A Finder survey of 22 experts also forecast an average of $145,167 by the end of this year and a staggering $458,000 by 2030.

Not everyone is optimistic, however. John Hawkins, a lecturer at the University of Canberra, offers a counter-view, arguing that bitcoin’s price remains a “speculative bubble” inflated by the Trump administration and could correct to the $80,000 region. “After 16 years, bitcoin still lacks intrinsic value and has yet to fulfill its ambition of becoming a universal means of payment,” he says.

And the current calm is not without risks. “Everything is running like a slow train until something derails it,” warns Philip Gillespie of AWR Capital. A “black swan event,” like the collapse of SVB in 2023 or an inflationary shock in 2022, could shatter the calm, sparking a new wave of volatility and unforeseeable scenarios.

Bitcoin is facing historic resistance. The price could head towards $135,000 if the rally holds, but there is also a risk of a correction to $107,000 if profit-taking pressure increases (Image: CoinGape).

Bitcoin’s journey to the $118,000 peak this time paints a completely new picture. It is no longer a story of overnight crypto millionaires through speculation but of a shift in power, from the masses to institutions, from chaos to order, from volatility to stability.

Bitcoin appears to be evolving. It is taking on the characteristics of a traditional financial asset, becoming more integrated into the global economic system. This maturity brings stability and trust, but also means it will become increasingly subject to the rules of Wall Street.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/bitcoin-len-dinh-het-thoi-bung-no-bat-dau-cau-chuyen-moi-20250712192006619.htm