Bitcoin at its peak: The boom is over, a new story begins?

(Dan Tri) - Bitcoin has quietly reached a peak of 118,000 USD. The market is no longer boiling but calm, led by institutional money and methodical investment strategies.

A push from the White House and a response from Wall Street.

In early July, President Donald Trump, in his usual decisive manner, announced a series of new tariffs targeting countries from Brazil to Malaysia, with rates ranging from 20% to 50%.

Immediately, the global financial markets were thrown into turmoil. Fears of a new trade war gripped the market, and stock indices plummeted. Amidst this chaos, one asset quietly bucked the trend. Without fanfare or drama, Bitcoin began its upward surge.

A few days later, the price of Bitcoin officially surpassed $118,403, setting a new all-time high (ATH). This breakout wasn't the result of a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) surge from retail investors as in the past. Instead, it was triggered by two main, solid, and systematic drivers:

Massive ETF inflows: In just the first few days of July, spot bitcoin ETFs attracted over $1.2 billion in net inflows. This influx, from names like BlackRock and Fidelity, is not just a number, but a strong vote of confidence from the traditional financial world.

Geopolitics : Trump's tariff moves have inadvertently become a powerful catalyst, driving investors to bitcoin as a digital "safe haven." As confidence in traditional channels wavers, bitcoin is once again proving its appeal as a risk-hedging asset, a more flexible version of gold.

But the story didn't end there. A subsequent executive order issued by Trump, requiring the establishment of a strategic bitcoin reserve for the U.S. – a "virtual Fort Knox for digital gold" – officially propelled bitcoin from a marginal asset to the center of national economic thinking.

Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, commented: "When a sitting government considers including bitcoin in its national reserves, it changes the entire global risk landscape. This not only legitimizes Bitcoin, but also compels other institutions and governments to act."

The quiet transformation: From the Wild West to the rhythm of Wall Street

The most surprising thing about this price surge isn't the $118,000 figure, but its "silence."

In the past, every time Bitcoin's price surged, the market was shaken, with volatility potentially skyrocketing to 80-90%. But this time, things are different. Although the price has risen more than 68% from its $70,000 peak at the end of last year, volatility metrics have plummeted.

According to data from Volmex Finance, the BVIV index (measuring implied 30-day volatility) has fallen from 70% to just around 40%, its lowest level since October 2023. Similarly, actual 30-day volatility has also decreased from a peak of 85% earlier this year to just 28%.

Simply put, Bitcoin is steadily and... boringly increasing in price, more like a blue-chip stock on the stock exchange than a volatile cryptocurrency.

"The decoupling between spot price and volatility suggests the market has matured, particularly with the participation of institutional investors," said Pulkit Goyal, head of trading at Orbit Markets. "This is no longer a speculative frenzy for retail investors."

This "maturity" is the clearest indication that bitcoin is entering a new era, where the rules of the game are being rewritten by smart money and professional financial strategies.

Bitcoin's latest surge comes after the cryptocurrency broke through the key resistance level of $111,000 earlier this week. Within days, the price of BTC jumped nearly 9% and reached a new peak of $118,403 (Image: Bitget).

Inside the machine: How the elite "cling" to change.

So what forces are "reining in" the unruly horse that is Bitcoin? The answer lies in derivative instruments and the strategies of institutional investors.

One key strategy is "covered calls." Imagine an organization holding a large amount of bitcoin. Instead of just waiting for the price to rise, they can "rent" that potential price increase by selling covered call contracts at a higher price in the future. In return, they receive a premium, creating a steady stream of cash flow.

Greg Magadini, Director of Derivatives at Amberdata, explains that ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT have opened the door for institutional investors to execute profit-generating strategies with controlled risk. Widespread call option selling has created selling pressure on the volatility index, dragging it down even as the underlying asset price is rising.

In addition, market makers also play a crucial role. Their task is to ensure liquidity for the market. When institutions massively sell call options, market makers are forced to stand on the opposite side, meaning they "buy" the volatility.

To hedge against their own risk (known as Vega risk), they must continuously sell off other option contracts on the market. This cycle creates an invisible drag, suppressing the overall volatility of the entire market.

This is a game for the big financial minds, a game that requires capital, knowledge, and sophisticated tools—things that small retail investors can hardly participate in.

An interesting paradox is unfolding: while institutions are quietly accumulating, the retail investor crowd is showing skepticism and discouragement. The data analytics platform Santiment indicates that crowd sentiment is low, with many having withdrawn from the market.

"History has shown that when retail investors panic, that's often when smart money starts quietly buying in," Santiment noted.

This differentiation shows that the market is no longer dominated by crowd emotions. Instead, it is operating according to the logic of large capital flows. These "whales" don't need a booming market to profit; they can make money from stability, from small but consistent premium payments, and from long-term asset accumulation.

The road ahead: $135,000 or a sudden derailment?

With solid growth momentum and support from the macroeconomic environment (weaker USD, expectations of interest rate cuts), many experts are aiming for higher price targets. The psychological threshold of $135,000 is seen as the next short-term target. A Finder survey of 22 experts even predicted an average of $145,167 by the end of this year and an astonishing $458,000 by 2030.

However, not everyone is optimistic. John Hawkins, a lecturer at the University of Canberra, offers a counter-argument, suggesting that the price of bitcoin remains a "speculative bubble" inflated by the Trump administration and could correct to around $80,000. "After 16 years, bitcoin still lacks intrinsic value and has not fulfilled its aspiration to become a widely used means of payment," he said.

And the current calm also hides risks. Philip Gillespie from AWR Capital warns: "Everything is moving like a slow-moving train until something derails it." A "black swan event," similar to the SVB bank collapse in 2023 or the inflation shock of 2022, could completely disrupt this calm, causing volatility to erupt again and leading to unpredictable scenarios.

Bitcoin is facing historical resistance. The price could head towards $135,000 if the upward momentum holds, but there is also a risk of a correction to $107,000 if profit-taking pressure increases (Image: CoinGape).

Bitcoin's journey to its current peak of $118,000 has painted a completely new picture. It's no longer a story about cryptocurrency millionaires getting rich overnight through speculation, but about a shift in power, from the masses to institutions, from chaos to order, from volatility to stability.

Bitcoin appears to be undergoing a transformation. It is gradually adopting the characteristics of a traditional financial asset, becoming more deeply integrated into the global economic system. This maturation brings stability and confidence, but also means it will become increasingly subject to the rules of Wall Street.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/bitcoin-len-dinh-het-thoi-bung-no-bat-dau-cau-chuyen-moi-20250712192006619.htm