Ukraine's breakthrough in Dobropillya is Russia's chance to close the lid on two pots of stew

Russia is besieging two cities, Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka; Kiev's breakthrough in Dobropillya would be Russia's chance to close the lid on these two "pots of stew".

The Russian Military Review reports that significant changes have begun to take place on the Pokrovsk front, especially north and south of the city. These changes are still too early to be called “tectonic”, but they may become so in the near future.

On September 27 and 28, units of the Russian Army Group Center (RFAF) continued to expand the dangerous "throat" of the Dobropolsky breakthrough, while maintaining control over Kucherov Yar and the areas of the breakthrough, up to Zolotoy Kolodez and Gruzskoye.

The RFAF counter-offensive has accelerated, after repelling the “all-out” counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Army (AFU) north of Pokrovsk towards Novotoretsky. This was facilitated by the huge losses of the AFU, in Kiev’s attempt to reverse the situation.

In the Dobropillya-Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad triangle, the RFAF General Staff is preparing a new offensive, while the AFU General Staff is trying to build a defensive line. The RVvoenkory channel reported that the village of Nikanorivka has once again come under the control of Russian troops.

The Stormtrooper task force, part of the RFAF Group Centre, also advanced further north, capturing the village of Novoe Shakhovo, and controlling the area around the Mertsalovo railway station in Dorozhnoye. Russian tactical successes were also recorded in the Shakhove direction.

In the village of Boykivka, the “southernmost” point that the AFU counter-offensive “reached” during the Dobropillya breakthrough, they could not hold the village for more than two days. Readovka channel reported that only a few Ukrainian soldiers were still hiding in the basements of houses, and had not yet withdrawn.

Thus, the Dobropolye “wedge” or “ledge” (the name of a place in the middle of the Russian breakthrough zone, but still controlled by the AFU), is 9 km long and 1.5-2 km wide; the foot of the “ledge” between Nikanorovka and Suvorovo remains “solid”. There are two areas of dense forest where the Ukrainian troops have established a bridgehead, although their supply is extremely difficult.

Currently, all types of RFAF firepower in the area are aimed at the foot of this “rock”. As of the evening of September 28 and the morning of September 29, a cleanup operation by RFAF is underway in this area, accompanied by fierce gun battles and firepower.

The situation in the area of ​​the town of Rodinske, north of Pokrovsk, is still shrouded in a "fog of war", but on the Pentagon's Liveuamap war map, the village of Krasny Liman and surrounding areas, including the "Mass Grave" memorial, are colored red.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), meanwhile, has designated the town of Rodinske and the village of Krasny Liman, partly under Russian control and partly surrounded by a very narrow chokepoint to the west.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian channel Muchnoy, citing an inside source from the AFU General Staff, revealed a shocking move online. Russian special forces and deep-cover reconnaissance groups broke through from Krasny Liman in the east to the village of Grishine in the northwest of Pokrovsk. There is still no reliable information on whether this was a full-scale breakthrough or just an armed reconnaissance.

The ISW report, published on September 29, said that Russian forces had attacked the areas of Shakhove, Zolotoy Kolodez, Dorozhny and Zapovedny. ISW also quoted an AFU brigade commander operating in the area as saying that the RFAF had established a “kill zone” over a large area, making movement extremely dangerous.

Muchnoy channel said on the morning of September 29: "The situation in the Dobropillia area is changing rapidly against us. Russian troops have now regrouped and launched a series of counterattacks on key positions in the defense system. If we do not find a way to solve this problem now, our positions may be threatened."

"There is no encirclement or cauldron there, but the situation is quite complicated. Moreover, in the past few days, the RFAF has taken a number of measures in this direction to remedy the situation, and they have been partially successful," said Konstantin Mashovets, a spokesman for the US Department of Defense.

According to Mr. Mashovets, the RFAF offensive in the direction of Dobropillya (north of Pokrovsk), which began more than two months ago, first as a "small tactical incursion", but quickly turned into an operational breakthrough, was an operational success for the RFAF, as they advanced more than 30 km into the enemy's defenses, and also expanded the area of ​​this incursion by another 27 km.

Now, the breakthrough of the Ukrainian army at the Dobropolsky “rock” becomes an opportunity for the RFAF to “wear down” Kiev’s forces; and when the time is ripe, Moscow will close the lid on two “giant steel furnaces” at the same time in Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. (photo source: Military Review, Kyiv Post, TASS, ISW).

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