After withdrawing from the Black Sea grain agreement, Russia concentrated its efforts on attacking seaports and ports on the Danube River in an attempt to prevent Ukraine from exporting agricultural products.
The Black Sea Grains Initiative, negotiated and signed in Istanbul in July 2022 by the United Nations and Turkey, allows Ukraine to export millions of tons of maize, wheat, and other agricultural products by sea to the world market.
Since the initiative began in August 2022, nearly 33 million tons of Ukrainian grain had been exported via the Black Sea, before the last cargo ship left the Eastern European country on July 16. Russia announced the termination of the agreement on July 17.
After withdrawing from the agreement, Russia launched a series of airstrikes targeting Odessa, one of three Black Sea ports crucial to Ukraine's grain exports. The attack on two warehouses in the city of Chornomorsk, in the Odessa province, on the night of July 19th destroyed approximately 60,000 tons of agricultural products, according to Ukrainian officials.
A grain warehouse at the port of Reni, Odessa province, was damaged after a Russian attack. Photo: BBC
After repeatedly launching missiles and drones at Ukrainian export ports along the Black Sea coast, Russia shifted its focus to inland ports along the Danube River, located on the border between Ukraine and Romania.
Ukraine currently relies heavily on these river ports to export grain to neighboring Romania, from where it is transported further afield.
Ukrainian officials said that Russia repeatedly attacked the river port system in September, including drone strikes lasting three hours. The attack on the port of Reni resulted in drone debris falling approximately 200 meters from the border with Romania, a NATO member.
The Zatoka Bridge, a vital route allowing grain trucks to access the port of Izmail on the Danube River, has also been repeatedly attacked.
"With the grain agreement suspended, Ukraine's maximum grain export capacity, based on river, road, and rail transport, will fall to 2.5 million tons per month," said Mariia Bogonos, an agricultural policy expert at the Kyiv School of Economics .
Much of this grain is transported via the Danube River, Ukraine's main export waterway today, says Andrey Sizov, an expert on Black Sea agricultural markets.
Observers believe that Russia's continued attacks on Danube river ports could cause further disruptions to the flow of Ukrainian grain, impacting Europe and the world, and causing global wheat prices to continue rising. Wheat prices have increased by more than 10% since the collapse of the Black Sea Grains Initiative.
Dozens of grain ships are navigating the Danube River and waiting at its mouth, according to global shipping market tracker Lloyd's List. The narrow waterway on the Danube prevents ships from navigating as freely as they do on the Black Sea.
Location of the Danube River and the Black Sea region. Graphic: FT
Lloyd's List said that increased risks at Danube river ports from Russian attacks have led many traders to reassess the viability of Ukraine's remaining grain export routes.
Grains can also be transported by truck or train, but agricultural experts say this is not a cost-effective option.
"The reason grain is transported in large quantities by ship is because it's cheaper. Other routes would add to the cost, driving up grain prices," said Mike Lee, an agricultural expert specializing in Eastern Europe.
Lee added that as Ukraine abandons the Danube river ports in favor of increasing grain exports by rail or road, those routes could easily become Russia's next targets.
"If Russia is determined to block Ukraine's grain exports, it will start attacking railway infrastructure. They haven't done that yet, but the next step could be," he said.
Thanh Tam (According to BBC )
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