In Vietnam, the price of 5% broken rice is being offered at around US$365-370 per ton, almost unchanged from last week. Traders say trading activity is slow due to weak demand. Official figures show that Vietnam's rice exports in November 2025 fell sharply by 49.1% year-on-year to 358,000 tons, clearly reflecting the sluggishness of the market in the short term.
Cumulative rice exports up to November 30 reached 7.535 million tons, valued at $3.851 billion, a decrease of 10.88% in volume and 27.37% in value compared to the same period in 2024, according to the Vietnam Food Association.
In the domestic market, according to the Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Strategy and Policy, in Can Tho, Jasmine rice remains priced at 8,400 VND/kg, the same as last week; IR 5451 rice is 6,200 VND/kg; ST25 is 9,400 VND/kg; and OM 18 is 6,600 VND/kg.
In Dong Thap , IR 50404 rice is priced at 6,800 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg; OM 18 remains at 6,900 VND/kg. In Vinh Long, OM 5451 rice is priced at 6,300 VND/kg, and OM 4900 is 7,000 VND/kg.
In An Giang , the prices of most fresh rice varieties remained stable compared to last week: OM 18 at 6,400 - 6,600 VND/kg; Dai Thom 8 at 6,400 - 6,600 VND/kg; OM 5451 at 5,400 - 5,600 VND/kg; and IR 50404 at 5,200 - 5,400 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg.
As of December 8th, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment , for the 2025 Autumn-Winter crop season, the entire Mekong Delta region has planted 638,000 hectares, reaching 97%; of which 438,000 hectares have been harvested with an average yield of 57.77 quintals/hectare, with an estimated production of 2.53 million tons. For the Summer crop season, localities have sown 175,000 hectares and begun harvesting approximately 10,000 hectares.
For the 2025-2026 Winter-Spring crop season alone, the entire region has planted 275,000 hectares, equivalent to 20.3% of the total planned 1.266 million hectares.
In the An Giang retail market, rice prices remain stable: regular rice 11,000 - 12,000 VND/kg; Thai fragrant rice 20,000 - 22,000 VND/kg; Jasmine rice 16,000 - 18,000 VND/kg; white rice 16,000 VND/kg, Nang Hoa rice 21,000 VND/kg, Huong Lai rice 22,000 VND/kg, Taiwanese fragrant rice 20,000 VND/kg, regular Soc rice 17,000 VND/kg, Thai Soc rice 20,000 VND/kg, Japanese rice 22,000 VND/kg.
The price of IR 50404 raw rice remains at 7,550 - 7,650 VND/kg, while finished IR 504 rice is priced at 9,500 - 9,700 VND/kg; OM 380 raw rice is priced at 7,200 - 7,300 VND/kg; finished OM 380 rice fluctuates between 8,800 - 9,000 VND/kg.
Regarding by-products, the prices of various by-products range from 7,400 to 10,000 VND/kg; the price of dry bran is at 9,000 to 10,000 VND/kg.
Along with Vietnam, Indian rice prices generally remained stable. Meanwhile, in the Asian rice market, Thai rice prices rose to their highest level in over six months last week. Globally, the rice market is considered to be gradually stabilizing after many fluctuations in 2025, but price trends remain clearly differentiated between Asia and Western regions.
In Thailand, the price of 5% broken rice surged to around US$400 per ton by the end of the week, up from US$375 per ton the previous week, reaching its highest level since late May 2025. The increase was primarily driven by concerns about shrinking supply due to flooding in several areas of the country, coupled with expectations of improved demand as China committed to purchasing 500,000 tons of Thai rice and is nearing completion of the deal this month. According to traders in Bangkok, the prospect of exports to China, along with the possibility of additional orders from the Philippines, has fueled the rice market's increased activity.
In contrast to Thailand, India's export rice prices remained almost unchanged last week. Its 5% broken parboiled rice was offered at $347-$354 per ton, while 5% broken white rice fluctuated between $340-$345 per ton. The weakening rupee, nearing record lows against the US dollar, helped exporters offset some of the increased costs caused by high domestic paddy prices. Indian paddy prices are kept high partly due to the government raising the minimum purchase price, thereby increasing input costs for businesses.
In other markets in the region, Bangladesh has approved a plan to purchase 50,000 tons of rice through an international tender, amid ongoing government struggles to control domestic rice prices despite perceived ample supply and production.
Recent reports indicate that the global rice market is showing signs of stabilization after a year of significant volatility. Rice prices in Asia are trending upwards due to tight supply, while some countries continue to import to replenish reserves, although overall demand remains sluggish. Meanwhile, exporters in the Americas are facing downward pressure on rice prices due to slower delivery times and weakening foreign demand. This development is widening the price gap between Asian and Western rice markets.
Global rice trade is projected to undergo significant adjustments in the near future, as inventories increase in some major producing countries in Asia and trade flows shift. Some Asian countries are expected to expand exports, while import demand in some African and Asian markets is trending upwards again. Analysts predict the global rice market will enter 2026 on a more stable foundation, but with clear regional differences that will shape pricing and trade strategies in the coming year.
Regarding the US agricultural market, soybean futures prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) remained flat during the trading session on December 12th, but were still heading for a second consecutive week of declines, as support from the US dollar weakened and demand from China was overshadowed by abundant supply and slowing US exports.
Meanwhile, wheat futures prices rose, while corn prices remained virtually unchanged, thanks to strong US export sales for both commodities. Corn recorded a slight weekly gain, while wheat saw its fourth consecutive weekly decline due to a global supply surplus.
Specifically, soybean futures, the most actively traded commodity on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), stood at $10.93 - 1/4 per bushel at the end of the week, unchanged from the previous session but down 1.1% from the end of the previous week. Wheat prices rose 0.3% to $5.35 per bushel, but were still down 0.2% for the week. Meanwhile, corn prices remained at $4.46 per bushel, up 0.4% from the previous week (1 bushel of wheat/soybeans = 27.2 kg; 1 bushel of corn = 25.4 kg).
The US dollar stabilized after two consecutive sessions of decline, as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and offered a less hawkish policy outlook than expected. A weaker dollar typically makes US agricultural products more competitive in export markets.
Soybean prices reached a 17-month high of $11.69 per bushel in November 2025, driven by expectations of strong Chinese purchases. However, the upward momentum cooled as actual buying did not meet expectations. Nevertheless, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed on December 11th the sale of 264,000 tons of US soybeans to China, 226,000 tons of soybeans to undisclosed markets, and 186,000 tons of corn to undisclosed customers.
In China, the national grain reserve agency Sinograin sold most of the soybeans offered in an auction of reserves – a move seen as the beginning of a series of sales aimed at making room for upcoming soybean imports from the United States.
In Brazil, the agricultural agency Conab estimates that soybean production for the 2025-2026 season will decrease by approximately 550,000 tons, to 177.12 million tons, but this is still a record high. Meanwhile, Argentina's Rosario Grain Exchange has raised its forecast for wheat production in the 2025-2026 season to a record 27.7 million tons, up from 24.5 million tons, thanks to favorable weather conditions that have improved yields.
Regarding global coffee prices, on December 13th, coffee prices on both the London (UK) and New York (US) exchanges fell sharply. Robusta coffee prices, in particular, dropped to their lowest level in four months as traders reported that the harvest in Vietnam is gradually accelerating after delays caused by storms and floods.
Specifically, the price of robusta coffee on the London Commodity Exchange for January 2026 delivery fell by $84 (equivalent to 1.99%), to $4,122 per ton. Meanwhile, the price of robusta for March 2026 delivery dropped by $108 (equivalent to 2.62%), to $3,999 per ton.
On the New York exchange, the price of Arabica coffee for December 2025 delivery fell sharply by 8.25 cents (equivalent to 2.02%) to 397.20 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the price of Arabica coffee for March 2026 delivery reversed course and fell by 6.9 cents (1.82%) to 369.30 cents/lb (1 lb = 0.4535 kg).
According to the consulting firm Hedgepoint, Brazil's coffee production for the 2026-2027 season is projected to recover strongly, reaching between 71 and 74.4 million bags (60 kg each). This growth is primarily driven by the recovery of arabica coffee, while robusta production is expected to remain high, thus helping to replenish and stabilize global coffee reserves.
Arabica production is projected to reach 46.5-49.0 million bags, a significant increase from the 37.7 million bags of the 2025-2026 crop year. Conversely, robusta coffee production is estimated to decrease slightly to 24.6-25.4 million bags compared to 27 million bags of the previous crop year. Favorable rains in October and November supported the flowering of arabica, signaling a positive outlook for the upcoming crop.
However, Brazil's coffee production for the 2025-2026 crop year faces several challenges. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the USDA has cut its forecast for the 2025-2026 crop year to 63 million bags, a decrease of 2 million bags from the previous forecast and lower than the 65 million bags of the 2024-2025 crop year.
This decline was primarily due to a 13.6% drop in arabica coffee production caused by erratic weather, prolonged drought, and frost and hailstorms in key growing regions such as Minas Gerais and São Paulo. Conversely, robusta coffee production reached a record high, increasing by 19% to 25 million bags thanks to favorable weather conditions and significant investment in irrigation, particularly in Espírito Santo and Bahia.
The USDA also lowered its forecast for Brazilian coffee exports in the 2025-2026 crop year to 40.75 million bags. Although domestic consumption is expected to increase by 1.4%, higher retail prices could be a factor in revising these forecasts downward.
Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/gia-gao-viet-nam-xuat-khau-di-ngang-du-nhu-cau-yeu-20251214165748738.htm
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