Pork prices continue to rise, even higher than in China and Thailand.

The average price of live pigs nationwide is 66,600 VND/kg. This price is significantly higher than in other countries in the region, and is 13,000-14,000 VND/kg higher than in China, Thailand, and Cambodia.

The live pig market continued its upward trend on December 24th across all three regions. According to surveys, live pig prices nationwide ranged from 63,000 to 69,000 VND/kg. In the North, live pig prices uniformly increased by 1,000 VND in Vinh Phuc, Phu Tho, Hai Duong, Hung Yen, and Nam Dinh , all reaching 69,000 VND/kg, the highest in the country.

Summary of live pig prices on December 24th. Source: Enova Feed.

Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Son - Standing Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Livestock Association - said that usually during holidays, During Tet (Vietnamese Lunar New Year), the price of live pigs will increase by 10-15% compared to normal prices. The price of live pigs could rise to over 70,000 VND/kg closer to Tet. This sharp increase in live pig prices, combined with reduced production costs, helps farmers reap significant profits at the end of the year, with earnings ranging from 1.5 to 1.9 million VND per pig ready for slaughter.

According to the Dong Nai Livestock Association, many farmers nationwide are hesitant to restock their herds due to concerns about disease outbreaks. This has resulted in a less abundant supply of live pigs to the market compared to the same period last year, thus driving up prices sharply. This reduced supply could cause live pig prices to reach a new peak in the coming weeks, potentially hitting 71,000 VND/kg.

Currently, Dong Nai supplies the market with approximately 6,000 pigs per day, which will increase to 8,000-10,000 pigs per day during the period leading up to Tet (Lunar New Year).

Mr. Phung Duc Tien, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development , stated: "The total pig herd nationwide increased by 3.5% in November this year compared to the same period last year. The high price of live pigs has 'boosted' businesses, large-scale farms, and small-scale farmers in restoring and expanding their herds."

Global pork production is projected to decline in 2025. (Illustration: IT)

Many experts predict that live pig prices in Vietnam will remain high in early 2025. The main reason is the decline in the global pig population, especially in countries with large-scale pig farming and processing such as China and the European Union (EU) countries, while Vietnam is likely to increase its production.

Specifically, in its 2025 Livestock and Poultry Report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that global pork production next year will fall to 115.1 million tons, with sharp declines in China and the EU.

Forecasts indicate that China's pork production will decrease by 2%, to 55.5 million tons, due to a decline in the number of breeding sows and consumer demand. pork The situation is weakening. The EU is also facing a 2% drop in production, to 20.9 million tonnes, due to falling pork prices and other factors negatively impacting the livestock industry.

Meanwhile, countries such as the United States, Vietnam, and Brazil are projected to increase production by 2025. Vietnam's pork production is expected to increase by 3% to 3.8 million tons thanks to the expansion of its pig herd and the control of African Swine Fever (ASF). Brazil also forecasts a 1% increase in production to 4.6 million tons due to strong exports and lower input costs.

The decline in output from major global markets could cause volatility in live pig prices, especially as export demand continues to increase. Global pork exports are projected to grow by 1% in 2025.

Source