How will gold prices move in the future?

Reporter of Hanoi Moi Newspaper had an interview with Vice President of Vietnam Gold Business Association Huynh Trung Khanh about this issue.

- How do you evaluate the domestic gold market recently?

- Since the beginning of the year, domestic gold prices have been on an upward trend. There have been two notable increases in gold prices. First, the gold price increased from VND 84.8 million/tael at the beginning of the year to over VND 100 million/tael at the end of March, then reached a record of VND 124 million/tael on April 22, 2025. After a period of little fluctuation, in recent days, domestic gold prices have increased sharply, reaching VND 129.3 million/tael on August 29. Thus, since the beginning of the year, domestic gold prices have "increased" by more than VND 40 million/tael.

- What is the reason for the sharp increase in domestic gold prices, sir?

- Domestic gold prices increased sharply primarily due to the influence of the international market. At the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter of 2025, the world gold price continuously increased and exceeded the 3,000 USD/ounce mark, recording a record of 3,500 USD/ounce on April 22, then decreased. In recent days, the world gold price has increased again, above the 3,400 USD/ounce mark. The price of this precious metal has increased in the context of world investors' concerns that the imposition of US tariffs will cause commodity prices to increase, pushing up the risk of global inflation. In addition, geopolitical tensions and economic instability have caused many investment funds, central banks, and investors to increase their gold purchases to secure their assets, leading to a sharp increase in global gold demand.

People buy gold at a store on Tran Nhan Tong Street (Hai Ba Trung Ward). *Photo: Nguyen Quang*

In the recent price increase, the factor that caused the world gold price to increase was after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) revealed the possibility of cutting interest rates this September. It is important to remember that gold prices are always sensitive to US interest rate adjustments. The Fed's interest rate cuts are always beneficial for gold because gold prices and USD prices often move in opposite directions. Lower interest rates will weaken the USD price, but significantly increase the attractiveness of non-yielding assets such as gold.

In addition to the influence of the international market, the sharp increase in domestic gold prices is also due to increased domestic demand while supply is limited. In March and April, the price of gold continuously increased, many people were impatient to buy gold, the gold market became bustling, the situation of people lining up to get numbers to buy gold recurred. In recent days, people have lined up to buy gold again, along with the scarce supply, also causing the price of gold to increase.

- What is noteworthy in recent days is that the difference between domestic SJC gold bar prices and world gold prices is very high. Why is this happening, sir?

- The domestic price of SJC gold bars is currently about VND20 million/tael higher than the world gold price. The reason is due to the scarce supply. In 2024, the State Bank sold about 14 tons of gold to intervene in the market. Thanks to that, the difference between domestic and world gold prices was at times around VND5-6 million/tael. However, since the beginning of the year, the management agency has stopped selling gold to the market, so the difference between domestic and world gold prices has increased sharply again, especially in recent days when world gold prices have increased sharply.

The high difference in gold prices will cause many consequences. First of all, it will cause one-way transactions. The more limited the supply, the more rare gold becomes. Therefore, people who own gold want to hoard it, do not want to sell it because they are afraid that they will not be able to buy it, making gold a speculative tool. In addition, the high difference in gold prices is also a factor that increases gold smuggling. Any item with a high price difference between domestic and international prices will stimulate smuggling.

Experience shows that when the difference in gold prices is 2-3%, there is smuggling, while currently this difference is up to more than 10%. The good news is that the Government has just issued Decree No. 232/2025/ND-CP amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree No. 24/2012/ND-CP of the Government on the management of gold trading activities. With this decree, the market will have a supply and the domestic gold price will be close to the world gold price.

- What is your forecast for gold prices from now until the end of the year and what is your advice to people at this time?

- From now until the end of the year, many experts believe that gold prices will continue to rise, possibly reaching $3,600-3,700/ounce. The above forecast is made because, in addition to the fact that the Fed may cut interest rates in the near future, the geopolitical situation remains complicated. In addition, the US President's reciprocal tax policy will affect the global economy. With the unstable geopolitical and economic situation, central banks will continue to buy gold reserves, although the amount is not equal to last year, estimated at about 700-800 tons. When the world gold price goes up, the domestic gold price will increase accordingly, but will increase more slowly after Decree No. 232/2025/ND-CP is issued.

The domestic gold price is currently very high, but it is not known which price is the highest. However, buying at this time is quite risky, not only because the price is high but also because the price gap with the world is very large. Besides, as mentioned, with Decree No. 232/2025/ND-CP, the domestic gold price will be close to the world price. In my opinion, if you do not have gold in your investment portfolio and have a long-term investment need, people can buy. If you only buy to "surf", you should not because you will encounter risks, because there is no item whose price can increase forever.

Thank you very much!

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/gia-vang-se-dien-bien-ra-sao-trong-thoi-gian-toi-714580.html