The Korea Times recently published an article titled "Soaring Export Growth Raises Hopes South Korea Will Overtake Japan," quoting experts who believe that South Korea's exports are growing at an accelerated pace with less than three months remaining in 2024.
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| Even if South Korea doesn't surpass Japan in exports this year, there are increasingly more statistics showing Seoul has better economic capabilities than Tokyo. (Source: Yonhap) |
According to South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, South Korea's exports in the first nine months of 2024 reached $508.8 billion, the second-highest total export value ever recorded in the country's history. In the period from June to September 2024, exports increased by 10.7% year-on-year, reaching $173.9 billion. This is also the second-highest third-quarter export figure ever recorded in South Korea.
Exports in September 2024 surged 7.5% year-on-year, continuing a 12th consecutive month of growth. As a result, South Korea's exports reached a record high in a single month, totaling $58.77 billion. Additionally, the average daily export value in September also reached a record high of $2.94 billion.
According to an unnamed official from South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Japan's annual exports have exceeded $700 billion for the past three years. South Korea aims to surpass Japan's annual exports by more than $700 billion in the coming years.
The official argued that even if South Korea doesn't surpass Japan in exports this year, there are increasingly more statistics showing that the country has better economic capabilities than Japan. For example, data released by the Bank of Korea (BOK) in June of this year showed that in 2023, South Korea's per capita GNI reached $36,194, surpassing Japan's $35,793.
Also published in June of this year, the 2024 National Competitiveness Assessment, by the International Institute for Management Development (IMD) in Lausanne, Switzerland, ranked South Korea 20th, an improvement from its 28th position in 2023. In contrast, Japan ranked 38th. It is noteworthy that South Korea is second only to the United States among the "30-50 Club" countries, with a per capita income of $30,000 and a population of over 50 million. The United States ranked 12th.
In its 2024 forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected South Korea's GDP per capita to reach $34,165, surpassing Japan's projected $33,138. The report also projected South Korea's real GDP growth to reach 2.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, exceeding Japan's estimated growth rates of 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively.
Speaking at a question-and-answer session in the South Korean National Assembly last month, Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Choi Sang Mok stated that although Japan surpasses South Korea in all macroeconomic indicators, South Korea has stronger microeconomic indicators than Japan.
The figures above have led some economists to predict that South Korea could surpass Japan in exports for the first time in history this year.
Assessing whether South Korea could become a larger exporter than Japan this year, Professor Kang In Won, an expert in international business and trade at Kyung Hee University, said it would depend on maintaining the growth momentum in the final quarter of this year, as Japan is also accelerating its exports.
According to Professor Kang In Won, Japan, after narrowing the export gap with South Korea to its lowest level in the first six months of the year, widened it again in the following two months. Japan reported exports of $472.3 billion from January to August this year, compared to South Korea's $450.1 billion during the same period.
Meanwhile, Professor Cho Hyuk Soo, an expert on international trade at Chungnam National University, said all the data is certainly compelling enough to draw public attention to whether South Korea can surpass Japan in exports.
Notably, South Korea narrowed its export gap with Japan to a record low of $3.5 billion in the first half of 2024. During that period, South Korean exports increased 9% year-on-year to $334.8 billion, while Japanese exports decreased 3.6% to $338.3 billion.
Professor Cho Hyuk Soo emphasized that such a narrowing gap is significant considering that South Korea was once one of the countries whose exports lagged far behind Japan, which once boasted the status of the world's second-largest economy after the United States.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/han-quoc-lan-dau-tien-vuot-nhat-ban-trong-linh-vuc-nay-289950.html
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