The United States increases taxes on imported goods, what should Vietnamese businesses pay attention to?

The United States is Vietnam's largest export market and the country's possible imposition of new tariffs on imports has raised concerns about the impact on imports and exports.

Dr. Le Quoc Phuong - former Deputy Director of the Center for Industry and Trade Information ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ) had an interview with reporters of Industry and Trade Newspaper about this issue.

Chuyên gia kinh tế Lê Quốc Phương – nguyên Phó Giám đốc Trung tâm Công nghiệp và Thương mại (Bộ Công Thương)

Dr. Le Quoc Phuong - former Deputy Director of the Center for Industry and Trade (Ministry of Industry and Trade)

- Sir, recently, the United States announced new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, then postponed the tariffs on Mexico and Canada. What do you think about this move by the United States - Vietnam's largest export partner?

Dr. Le Quoc Phuong: The US increasing tariffs on imported goods is something that the US President has announced before and after taking office, he decided to impose tariffs on goods from a number of countries.

However, the US move also shows that the use of tariffs is not only aimed at trade. For example, the tariffs on Canada and Mexico are aimed at addressing immigration and controlling drug smuggling. Therefore, after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said they agreed to step up border enforcement efforts in response to Trump's request to crack down on immigration and drug smuggling, the US decided to suspend the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days.

Hoa Kỳ tăng thuế với hàng nhập khẩu, doanh nghiệp Việt cần lưu ý gì?

Textiles and garments are one of the main export items to the United States. Photo: Can Dung

- Currently, the United States is Vietnam’s largest export market. With the latest moves by the United States, what obstacles will Vietnam’s export goods face in this country, sir?

Dr. Le Quoc Phuong: According to data from the General Department of Customs, in 2024, the total two-way trade turnover between Vietnam and the United States will reach more than 132 billion USD. Of which, Vietnam's exports to the United States will reach nearly 119 billion USD, up 23.3% over the same period in 2023; imports from the United States will reach 13 billion USD, up 7.3% over the same period in 2023.

Vietnam has become the 8th largest trading partner and the 4th largest export market of the United States in the ASEAN region. In contrast, the United States is the second largest trading partner and the largest export market of Vietnam. Vietnam's main export items to the United States include footwear, wooden furniture, machinery and optical equipment... The special position of the United States makes any policy move of this market of interest to the Government , ministries, sectors and Vietnamese enterprises. I think that Vietnam also needs to discuss and propose scenarios to respond to the new tariff policy if Vietnamese goods are subject to tariffs.

At this point, it is difficult to predict whether the US will impose tariffs on Vietnamese exports or not. We all hope that the US will not impose tariffs on Vietnamese imports. If so, in my opinion, the US will not impose high tariffs on Vietnamese goods. Because currently, the relationship between Vietnam and the US is at a very good stage. In 2023, the Vietnam - US relationship was upgraded to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. This is an important basis showing that the US highly values its cooperative relationship with Vietnam.

- Export is still considered an important driving force for macroeconomic growth. In the current context, what recommendations do you have for businesses exporting to the US in particular and exporting in general?

Dr. Le Quoc Phuong: In my opinion, we can gradually reduce the trade surplus with the US by increasing the import of some of the items you suggested such as airplanes, liquefied gas, creating conditions for the US to invest in golf courses in Vietnam... However, items such as liquefied gas from the US are often quite expensive, so the State needs to support and create conditions for businesses to import these items.

On the business side, it is also necessary to outline scenarios to be ready to respond to possible tariffs from the US. In case of low tariffs, it is necessary to continue to stick to the market and implement technology investment solutions, optimize production costs to reduce costs and increase profits.

Enterprises also need to continue to diversify markets and implement the strategy of "not putting all eggs in one basket" to avoid possible risks from the import market.

At the same time, closely follow information from the Vietnam Trade Office in the United States and Vietnamese representative agencies in the United States to grasp information and have timely response measures to changes from your side (if any).

In particular, the US's high tariffs on neighboring countries may lead to businesses in those countries exporting goods to Vietnam, falsifying the origin, and then exporting back to the US. This has happened before, and when discovered, it has affected Vietnam's entire export industry. Therefore, Vietnamese businesses need to deeply consider the issue of long-term benefits, absolutely avoiding the situation of partners falsifying the origin, "taking advantage" to affect the export of the entire industry and the country.

Thank you!

At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Industry and Trade in the fourth quarter of 2024 and a meeting with press agencies on the occasion of the New Year 2025 taking place in January 2025, Mr. Tran Thanh Hai - Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) - said that the United States is currently Vietnam's largest export market. In 2024, Vietnam will also be the 8th largest partner of the United States, accounting for 4.13% of total export turnover to this market. In terms of trade surplus, Vietnam is behind China and Mexico in the US market.

Mr. Tran Thanh Hai informed that Mr. Donald Trump's goal is to reduce the trade deficit; promote domestic production and attract investment. In the context of global trade liberalization, Mr. Donald Trump uses a classic tool: tariffs. In fact, Mr. Donald Trump has imposed high tariffs on goods from many markets such as China, the EU, etc.

Previously, the impact of Vietnamese goods on tariffs in the US market was not large. But entering 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has outlined two scenarios. The optimistic scenario is that the US maintains its current tax policy on Vietnamese goods. In the trend of shifting supply chains, Vietnam can completely welcome investment flows to increase exports.

In the second scenario, if the tariff is more severe and stricter, it may affect the global economy, causing Vietnam's export of goods to be affected to some extent. The Chinese market - a major partner of the United States, if facing difficulties due to tariffs, will also create pressure in the United States and pressure on our country. For this scenario, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will consider reporting to the Government to support production and export enterprises in diversifying markets in the coming time.

The United States is Vietnam's largest export market and the country's possible imposition of new tariffs on imports has raised concerns about the impact on imports and exports.

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