What scenario for the stock market next week?

At the end of last week, VN-Index closed at 1,731 with a decrease of more than 16 points along with a strong increase in liquidity combined with a widespread profit-taking wave. How will the stock market perform in the new week?

The stock market has just experienced a strong correction session - Photo: QUANG DINH

Two scenarios with stocks

* Mr. Dong Thanh Tuan - analyst of Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities:

- Last week, VN-Index recorded an increase in the first half of the week with demand concentrated on large-cap stocks; despite conflicting news from the world macro context related to the US's new tax imposition move.

However, profit-taking pressure quickly returned after the VN-Index approached the new peak at 1,800 points. Specifically, selling pressure formed in the group of stocks belonging to Vingroup with VIC, VHM and VRE decreasing by about 9-11% respectively since the peak and gradually spreading, covering many industry groups; especially the banking group.

We believe it is still early to conclude that the market will soon enter a correction phase in the medium and long term trend.

Profit-taking pressure after VN-Index conquered the new milestone of 1,800 points is considered a technical and cyclical correction, especially for Vingroup stocks after a non-stop increase for 6 months.

However, the risk in the current context will be the lack of cash flow for industry groups with corresponding capitalization proportions to balance the downward pressure that is likely to form in the Vingroup group; specifically the banking, securities, retail, steel and technology groups.

In fact, the growth momentum in the above groups had already entered a weakening cycle in the last three months.

In the base scenario: Expect selling pressure to cool down in the first two sessions of the week after VN-Index retests the old peak at 1,700 points.

As for the less optimistic scenario: Selling pressure is widespread and prolonged with the weakening gradually forming in the Banking and Vingroup groups, accompanied by a wide differentiation of many previously formed industry groups leading to stronger corrections in the VN-Index. It is expected that the medium- and long-term support zone will form at 1,550 points with the prospect of sustainable growth towards the 2,000 point mark.

Investors should not buy in haste.

* Mr. Phan Tan Nhat - Head of SHS Market Strategy Department:

- The short-term trend of VN-Index has been under strong selling pressure at the price range around 1,800 points, corresponding to the trend line connecting the highest price peaks in 2018, 2021, 2022.

The index is creating a short-term peak in the price range of 1,780 points - 1,800 points and is under pressure to correct and retest the price range around 1,700 points, corresponding to the highest price range in August and September 2025.

Currently, we believe that the price range around 1,700 points is not an attractive price range for disbursement for many groups of codes, especially groups of codes that have had a period of sudden strong price increases this year.

At the same time, investors are recommended to carefully evaluate buying positions based on the reasonable valuation of each enterprise and expected Q3 business results and short-term risk control.

Will VN-Index recover to the 1,700 point zone?

* VDSC Securities Analysis Team:

- The market's rally failed and reversed with a large drop, and the market also fell below the 1,750 point zone. Liquidity increased compared to the previous session, showing that supply increased significantly and is putting pressure on the market.

The bearish signal below the 1,750-point area shows that the market is out of balance and the risk of correction is still continuing. However, this correction may be a re-test of the supporting cash flow after the signal of breaking through the 1,700-point barrier on October 9-10.

The market is expected to receive support when it falls back to near the 1,700 point zone, which is also the MA(20) zone, and recovers.

Investors need to slow down and observe cash flow signals when the market retreats near the support zone. Temporarily, investors need to restructure their portfolios appropriately and avoid falling into an overbought state until the market shows clear support signals.

On the buying side, investors can consider short-term purchases of some stocks that have had positive developments recently and have retreated to good support zones.

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BINH KHANH

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/kich-ban-nao-cho-thi-truong-chung-khoan-tuan-moi-20251020090513346.htm