US inflation in September increased lower than forecast

VTV.vn - Although inflation figures bring good news, economists still warn of future challenges.

People shop at a supermarket in Millbrae, USA. (Photo: THX/TTXVN)

US consumer prices rose less than expected in September, a development that bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next week.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month, after rising 0.4% in August, according to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on October 24. Compared to the same period in 2024, the CPI increased 3.0%, slightly higher than the 2.9% in August. The above figures were lower than the forecasts of economists participating in the Reuters survey.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the US core CPI rose just 0.2% in September, slowing from August's 0.3%. Compared to the same period last year, the core CPI rose 3.0%.

The CPI report was released despite the U.S. government shutdown and the suspension of most other economic data. The release was prioritized to help the U.S. Social Security Administration calculate the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment for millions of retirees.

Eric Gerster, chief investment officer at AlphaCore Wealth Advisory, said the data was positive and certainly paved the way for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4% next week. At the same time, the figures also raised expectations for at least two more cuts between now and March 2026.

Despite the good news from the inflation numbers, economists warn of future challenges. The impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs is expected to be muted as businesses have built up inventories and have limited hiring. However, with inventories down in the second quarter, retailers like Walmart say costs are rising as they restock at after-tax prices. As a result, economists expect prices in the US to rise steadily through 2026.

Another major concern is the quality of future economic reports. The 24-day government shutdown has severely disrupted data collection. Experts say more than half of the data for the October CPI report was missed, raising questions about whether the report will be released at all.

These disruptions come as BLS was already facing resource constraints due to budget and staff cuts, which led to the suspension of data collection for some components of the CPI basket in some areas.

Against that backdrop, the September CPI report may be the only clear signal for policymakers ahead of next week's interest rate decision, as other key data such as jobs figures remain in short supply.

Source: https://vtv.vn/lam-phat-thang-9-tai-my-tang-thap-hon-du-bao-100251025055418729.htm