Avdiivka Center
On December 2, the Ukrainian Interior Ministry announced that Russia had shelled the town of Chasiv Yar in the eastern Donetsk province, killing one civilian and destroying two houses, according to AFP. Chasiv Yar is located less than 5 km west of the frontline city of Bakhmut.
On the same day, the Ukrainian military reported that fighting continued around the town of Avdiivka, also in Donetsk, where Kyiv remains despite a new offensive by Moscow. An estimated 1,300 civilians are still in the town.
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According to CNN, Avdiivka is gradually becoming the focal point of the conflict as fighting remains intense even though the front lines have remained largely unchanged for months. Russian forces are reportedly making tactical advances on the outskirts while Ukraine claims to have inflicted heavy losses on the attacking side.
Ukrainian soldiers in Avdiivka in November.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on December 1 that soldiers were acting skillfully and decisively, gaining a more advantageous position and expanding their control in all directions. Shoigu called the offensive in Avdiivka "active defense".
The US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) argues that the minister deliberately misrepresented the offensive effort as active defense in order to lower expectations about the Russian military's ability to achieve key operational objectives.
Russia claims it is advancing from all directions in Ukraine.
Russia increases troop numbers.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree increasing the number of soldiers by 15%, equivalent to approximately 170,000. This brings the maximum number of servicemen in the Russian armed forces to 1.32 million.
"The increase in the full-time strength of the military is due to the growing threats to our country related to special military operations and due to NATO's continued expansion," the Russian military stated. Moscow currently has no plans to increase the number of conscripts or implement a new mobilization order.
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Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, stated that more than 452,000 people have been recruited to serve in the military under contract between January 1 and December 1, 2023.
Ukraine needs to change its troop mobilization strategy.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that Kyiv also needs to change its troop mobilization system as part of an overall strategy to improve the military's standing.
The leader said a meeting of the military command discussed developments to bring about concrete results for the 2024 military situation. "In particular, this concerns the issue of troop mobilization. Everyone in Ukraine understands that changes are necessary in this area. It's not simply about the number or who can be mobilized. The issue is the timeframe for each person currently in the military, those who have been discharged, and those who will join the military, and also about the conditions," Zelensky said.
In November, the BBC cited official figures from the European Union (EU) showing that 650,000 Ukrainian men of fighting age had left the country for Europe. The actual number may be higher because many refugees are not officially registered.
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President Zelensky called for a change in the troop mobilization system amid orders to concentrate defenses following the disappointing summer counteroffensive in the south. In an interview with AP, Zelensky acknowledged that Ukraine had not made as many breakthroughs as expected due to a lack of certain weapons from allies, leaving ground forces at a disadvantage.
The risk of nuclear disaster.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which has been under Russian control since March 2022, experienced a power outage early on December 2nd and had to rely on backup generators. The Ukrainian Ministry of Energy stated that the last two power lines connecting to the plant failed late on December 1st and early on December 2nd.
"This is the eighth power outage at the Zaporizhzhia plant and could lead to a nuclear disaster," the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy said.
Former Ukrainian President banned from leaving the country.
Ukrainian border guards prevented former President Petro Poroshenko from leaving the country on December 1st when he intended to meet with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, AFP reported on December 2nd, citing a statement from Kyiv security forces.
Mr. Poroshenko, who was in power from 2014-2019, had planned several high-level meetings abroad but said his trip had to be canceled because he was denied exit at the border.
In a statement on December 2, Ukraine's SBU security agency said the former leader had been denied exit due to plans to meet with Orban, an EU leader criticized by Kyiv for his pro-Russian stance.
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The SBU stated that Orban "systematically expressed anti-Ukraine views" and accused Moscow of intending to use the meeting for "information and psychological operations against Ukraine." Moscow and Budapest have not immediately commented.
Previously, Poroshenko had been banned from leaving Ukraine, including once in May 2022 when he planned to attend a NATO-related meeting in Lithuania.
Since leaving office, former Ukrainian President Poroshenko has been under investigation for alleged treason and corruption. He denies the allegations and claims the investigation was orchestrated by his political rivals.
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