Steel industry in the second quarter of 2025: Domestic market maintains growth

In Q2/2025, the domestic market became the growth driver as consumption output increased by 22% over the same period, with contributions from both construction steel and HRC.

Domestic channel - the main growth driver

Vietnam has about 40 large and small enterprises in the steel industry, of which Hoa Phat , Hoa Sen and Nam Kim are the big names, holding the main market share. Since the beginning of 2025, the industry has faced two major challenges: Declining exports due to trade barriers and competitive pressure from Chinese steel. However, strong growth in the domestic market thanks to public investment and real estate has become a savior for the entire industry.

In the second quarter of 2025, the domestic market became the growth driver as consumption increased by 22% year-on-year, with contributions from both construction steel and HRC. Photo: HP

According to the newly updated industry report of MBS Securities, the domestic market is forecast to record output growth. steel consumption about 22% over the same period to 7.1 million tons, of which 60% comes from construction steel and HRC. More specifically, thanks to the disbursement of public investment capital and positive growth in real estate supply, MBS forecasts that construction steel consumption may grow by 14% over the same period to 3.1 million tons in the peak season of the second quarter, in which HPG's construction steel output is expected to increase by 15% over the same period.

According to information from Hoa Phat (HPG), the proportion of domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel used in galvanized steel enterprises has increased to 40% (from 15% - 20% in the same period in 2024). Thanks to the imposition of anti-dumping tax and additional contributions from Dung Quat 2 factory, HPG's HRC consumption output in the second quarter of 2025 could reach 2.2 million tons (+40% over the same period).

Or Hoa Sen also focuses on the domestic market, benefiting from stable HRC prices and recovering demand. Achieved a high profit target completion rate (131%) after 9 months of fiscal year 2025. In the second quarter of 2025, according to Hoa Sen's annual financial report, net revenue reached VND 8,451.87 billion, down slightly by 8.6% compared to the same period last year.

Accumulated in the first two quarters of 2025 according to the fiscal year, Hoa Sen recorded net revenue of VND 18,673.53 billion, a slight increase of 1.91% over the same period last year. Profit after tax reached nearly VND 371 billion, down 12.22%, equivalent to completing 74.2% of the positive profit plan set by the Board of Directors at the 2025 General Meeting of Shareholders.

Also in the second quarter of 2025, domestic steel prices remained stable due to high demand and positive impacts from anti-dumping taxes. Construction steel prices remained stable compared to the same period and increased slightly by 1% compared to the previous quarter. In addition, HRC prices remained stable thanks to strong growth in consumption output. The domestic HRC market share improved to 65% from about 40% as domestic enterprises took over the market share from exported steel.

According to Hoa Phat, consumption demand has been higher than production and the company has consumed inventory from the previous quarter. MBS assessed that good consumption demand will continue to be the driving force for domestic steel prices in the second half of 2025, although Chinese steel prices have not shown signs of recovery.

Respond well to market fluctuations

Forecast on growth prospects steel industry Vietnam in the second half of 2025, Vietnam Steel Association (VS) believes that the steel industry will depend heavily on the speed of public investment disbursement, public transport infrastructure construction projects - expected to create great demand for construction steel and other steel products. Because, with the target of 8% economic growth in 2025, double-digit growth in the period of 2026-2030, steel demand from the civil construction and manufacturing sectors is expected to continue to grow steadily.

VSA recommends that, to maintain growth momentum, steel enterprises Vietnam needs to proactively seek and develop new export markets to reduce dependence on traditional markets affected by protectionist measures; focus on improving product quality, reducing production costs and enhancing trade promotion activities; grasp and maximize steel demand from public investment projects and the domestic construction market.

To support the steel industry to recover and develop, economic experts suggest that the Ministry of Industry and Trade should continue to research and appropriately apply trade defense measures to protect the domestic steel market. Along with that, it is necessary to strengthen coordination with associations and enterprises in the steel industry to take advantage of opportunities in the domestic market from the disbursement of public investment capital for large traffic and construction projects. From there, promote domestic production supply, create breakthrough growth, develop steel production, construction materials and mechanics...

On the side of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, speaking with reporters of the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Tran Viet Hoa - Director of the Department of Industry said that the first policy that the state needs to focus on is trade defense. Because this is the main policy to protect domestic manufacturing industries from massive imports or dumped goods. Currently, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has actively implemented measures to apply anti-dumping, anti-subsidy, and self-defense taxes on steel and steel products such as galvanized steel. Typically, recently, the Ministry issued Decision No. 914/QD-BCT on the application of temporary anti-dumping taxes on some galvanized steel products originating from China (the highest is 37.13%) and South Korea (the highest is 15.67%).

“In addition to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Science and Technology also needs to get involved soon to research and propose scientific and technical measures for domestic products. We need a synchronous and effective defense policy from ministries and sectors in the context of increasingly difficult industry competition like today to develop domestic production, especially for the steel industry,” said the leader of the Department of Industry.

Source: https://baoquangninh.vn/nganh-thep-quy-ii-2025-thi-truong-noi-dia-giu-nhip-tang-truong-3364195.html