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Real estate market before provincial mergers: Be wary of "speculative land price bubbles"

Recently, a lot of information about the merger of provincial administrative units has been spread, along with a number of large projects in the province that are being implemented, causing real estate prices to increase. However, experts all agree that this is just a short-term "virtual fever", investors need to be alert to avoid unnecessary risks.

Báo Khánh HòaBáo Khánh Hòa16/04/2025

Short-term price surge

In recent days, following news of Ninh Thuan province's merger with Khanh Hoa, the real estate market in the province has begun to show signs of heating up. Mr. Phan Tuan, a civil servant working in Ninh Thuan province, took advantage of his weekend off to bring his family to Nha Trang City to explore the real estate market. “I might be among those relocating to Nha Trang for work. Therefore, this is the right time to look for a property to settle down in. I've contacted many real estate agencies for assistance, but seeing the market prices rising every day makes me very confused,” Mr. Tuan shared.

A view of Nha Trang city.
A view of Nha Trang city.

According to real estate brokers, since mid-March, the demand for apartments and land plots in Nha Trang has been increasing. This is especially true in areas adjacent to projects that have recently received investment approval and selected investors, such as: the new Provincial Urban Area - Park - Administrative Center, the Nha Trang Mixed-Use Urban Area... Not only in Nha Trang, but also in Van Ninh, Cam Ranh, and Cam Lam, the real estate market is showing signs of activity due to many approved projects, such as: the high-end Co Ma New Urban Area; the Doc Da Trang Industrial Park; the Cam Ranh Bay waterfront urban area; and mixed-use urban areas in Cam Tan, Cam Thuong, Suoi Tan, and Cam Hoa…

According to Ms. Phuong Hanh, a real estate broker, some urban areas bordering the center of Nha Trang have seen price increases of 10 to 20 million VND/m²; the price of completed apartments has also increased by 2 to 5 million VND/m² depending on location. However, these are only expected prices from the landowners, while the actual number of successful transactions is not high.

According to reporters, land prices in areas 3-5km from the center of Nha Trang are trending upwards, especially in locations near the new administrative center and areas where the 1/2000 zoning plan has been completed. However, according to real estate agents, the number of successful transactions remains low because land prices in Nha Trang are currently high compared to reality. Mr. Tran Dinh Quy, Chairman of the Khanh Hoa Real Estate Brokers Association, commented that the real estate market in the province is showing signs of "heating up" partly due to the impact of the provincial merger information. However, this is only a short-term phenomenon. After July 1st, when official information is announced and the new organizational structure becomes operational, the market will become clearer and more stable.

Beware of the "virtual fever"

According to the Department of Construction's report on the real estate market situation, in the first quarter of 2025, the entire province recorded 6,965 transactions with a total value of over 5,740 billion VND, equivalent to the fourth quarter of 2024. Thus, for two consecutive quarters, the local real estate market has maintained stability. Notably, in the first quarter of 2025, although no real estate projects met the conditions for commercial operation, transactions remained at a relatively high level. This indicates that the actual demand for real estate remains high.

Real estate experts all agree that the merger of administrative units is a correct policy of the Party and State aimed at streamlining administrative structures, expanding development space, and creating momentum for national development. “However, it is necessary to frankly acknowledge that, for investment, the most important thing is the mechanism and policies for socio -economic development of the locality, thereby attracting large investors to develop infrastructure, creating real value in terms of jobs and income for the people. This is the driving force for sustainable growth of the real estate market. This requires time and a specific roadmap to implement. Therefore, investors need to be cautious about the 'artificial land bubble',” analyzed Mr. Phan Viet Hoang, General Secretary of the Khanh Hoa Real Estate Brokers Association.

Many experts also believe that, in recent years, the real estate market has experienced numerous similar "land fever" periods, mostly stemming from the intention to "create hype" to sell new properties or offload old ones. However, the common point of these fevers is that they quickly cool down because the real value does not match the price. If not careful, investors can easily fall into the FOMO (fear of missing out) effect, leading them to buy properties at excessively high prices, sometimes taking many years to recoup that value.

MANH HUNG

Source: https://baokhanhhoa.vn/kinh-te/202504/thi-truong-bat-dong-san-truoc-thoi-diem-sap-nhap-tinhcan-tinh-tao-voi-sotdat-ao-0c9536d/


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