Ukrainian soldiers walk near fortifications, including the "dragon's tooth" line and barbed wire fences, in a field near the Kupiansk front line (Photo: Reuters).
In an interview with the British newspaper Express published on January 13, former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki admitted that Ukraine's counterattack in 2023 "was unsuccessful" and that Russia held the strategic upper hand.
Morawiecki said that the conflict in Ukraine "is not going in the right direction," and expressed his "great concern" about the situation in which Moscow appears to have defeated Kyiv.
He explained that Russia has "enormous resources," noting that Moscow's military production capabilities far surpass those of the European Union (EU).
"They have strategic depth and they have patience in international politics ," the former Polish prime minister said, while dismissing the notion that the Russian elections next March are unlikely to change the balance of power in Moscow.
However, Morawiecki also argued that Ukraine's failure presented an opportunity for NATO because the alliance had already brought Finland and Sweden into the coalition and was "awakening" countries like Denmark and Romania. He noted that these were the countries with the most influence in drawing attention to the perceived threat posed by Russia.
"Not only security on NATO's eastern flank, but also the security of the UK, Germany, Denmark, and Scandinavia—they understand this very well," Morawiecki emphasized.
Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in early June last year, but failed to make any significant progress despite being reinforced with large quantities of Western equipment.
Months after the attack, even top Ukrainian officials, including Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, began to admit they had failed to achieve their objectives.
In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin estimated the loss ratio at 8 to 1 in favor of Moscow, and in early December, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated that Kyiv had lost more than 125,000 soldiers since the beginning of the summer.
However, analysts believe Ukraine may be regrouping with the aim of launching a new counteroffensive in 2024, after attacks since last June failed to penetrate all of Russia's defenses.
Nico Lange, a former German defense official and now a senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference, argues that despite growing pessimism in the West about Ukraine's progress on the battlefield, Kyiv still has a considerable amount of military equipment from the West and several new arms shipments are expected to arrive in the near future.
German experts believe Ukraine still has big plans, as evidenced by the "ambitious" list of weapons Kyiv has requested from the US, which includes attack helicopters, advanced fighter jets, long-range missile systems, Abrams tanks, and other equipment.
The German magazine Bild , citing sources, reported that Ukraine is drawing up a "new operational plan." The sources claim that Ukraine's main objective in this plan is to inflict maximum damage on Moscow.
However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has voiced concerns about a reduction in Western support for Kyiv's war, after unprecedented foreign aid from Britain, the US, and the EU failed to significantly impact Russia.
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