Estimated to achieve and exceed 14/15 socio-economic targets in 2024

Based on the results of the first eight months of 2024, the socio -economic situation for the whole year is estimated to meet and exceed 14 out of 15 key targets; including meeting and exceeding all social targets, and achieving the target for average social labor productivity growth rate after three years of failure.

Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung reports at the morning session on October 9th. (Photo: DUY LINH)

Continuing the 38th Session, on the morning of October 9th, National Assembly Standing Committee Provide feedback on the Government 's report on the results of implementing the socio-economic development plan for 2024; and the projected socio-economic development plan for 2025.

The estimated GDP growth rate for the whole year is 6.8-7%, exceeding the target set by the National Assembly.

Reporting at the session, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung stated that the socio-economic situation has shown a clear recovery recently, with each month improving and each quarter surpassing the previous one, achieving the overall set goals and many important results in various fields.

Based on the results of the first eight months, it is estimated that the whole year of 2024 will achieve and surpass 14 out of 15 key targets; including achieving and surpassing all social targets, and achieving the target for average social labor productivity growth rate after three years of failure.

The GDP per capita target was approximately reached (US$4,647 compared to the target of US$4,700-4,730) due to exchange rate fluctuations.

However, if calculated in VND, at the time of planning for 2024, the target for GDP per capita was approximately 112 million VND; the estimated actual figure for 2024 is approximately 123 million VND, exceeding the set target.

According to the Minister, the growth rate GDP Each subsequent quarter is higher than the previous one, with the annual growth rate estimated at around 6.8-7%, exceeding the target set by the National Assembly (6-6.5%), placing Vietnam among the few high-growth countries in the region and the world, and receiving high praise from international organizations.

The average consumer price index (CPI) growth rate for the first eight months was 4.04%; the estimated increase for the whole year is below 4.5%, achieving the target set by the National Assembly in the context of implementing salary increases from July 1, 2024.

The scene at the meeting. (Photo: DUY LINH)

In particular, nearly 700 trillion VND has been allocated, ensuring sufficient resources to increase the basic salary by 30% for officials, civil servants, public employees, and members of the armed forces, while also adjusting pensions, social insurance, preferential allowances for meritorious individuals, and social assistance from July 1, 2024, at the highest levels ever.

Besides the achievements, the government report also pointed out some limitations and difficulties in various fields. Specifically, macroeconomic stability still faces potential risks, especially from external factors such as inflation and exchange rates; production and business activities face many difficulties, having to cope with increasing pressure from anti-dumping investigations and origin fraud; and having to respond more quickly and effectively to technical barriers related to the environment, sustainable development, and green transition…

Domestic purchasing power is showing signs of slowing growth; the trade surplus remains dependent on the FDI sector. Issues such as flooding, traffic congestion, traffic accidents, fire prevention and control, and environmental pollution remain major challenges.

Strengthen supervision of the gold, stock, and corporate bond markets.

Presenting the verification report, Chairman of the Economic Committee Vu Hong Thanh emphasized several achievements in the implementation of the 2024 socio-economic development plan; however, he requested that some issues be given more attention and evaluated more thoroughly.

Specifically, aggregate demand recovered weakly, with consumer demand growing less than expected amidst increased inflationary pressure in the final months of the year; public and private investment increased slowly; and the service trade deficit did not improve. Overall, in the first nine months of 2024, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (excluding price factors) increased by 5.8%, lower than the 7.8% increase in the same period of 2023. Regarding investment, non-state sector investment in the first nine months of 2024 increased by 7.1%, nearly half the growth rate of the 2015-2019 period; state sector investment increased by 4.1% compared to the same period last year, significantly lower than the 15.1% increase in the same period of 2023.

Chairman of the Economic Committee Vu Hong Thanh presents the verification report. (Photo: DUY LINH)

According to the Ministry of Finance, the estimated disbursement of public investment from the beginning of the year to August 31, 2024 reached 37.01% of the plan and 40.49% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister, lower than the same period in 2023 in terms of percentage (reaching 39.55% of the plan and 42.35% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister), and approximately 25,000 billion VND lower in absolute terms.

Based on disbursement rates, nine ministries and central agencies and 32 localities have high disbursement rates, exceeding 45% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister. However, 31 out of 44 ministries and central agencies and 28 out of 63 localities still have public investment disbursement rates below the national average in the first eight months of 2024. Mr. Thanh requested the Government to clarify the reasons and implement effective solutions to accelerate public investment disbursement and promote economic growth.

In addition, according to the auditing agency, the financial and monetary markets still face challenges, with high levels of bad debt, slow handling of weak banks, low credit growth in the first months of the year, and limited capacity of businesses to absorb and access credit.

Exchange rates have experienced periods of unusual volatility, impacting business operations; gold market management remains inadequate, putting pressure on the foreign exchange market and exchange rates. Cybersecurity risks to Vietnam's financial system have become constant and ever-present, with unpredictable consequences. Liquidity in the corporate bond market has improved significantly, but it still faces many challenges in becoming an effective medium- and long-term capital mobilization channel for the economy, sharing the role of capital supply with the banking system.

Regarding the projected socio-economic development plan for 2025, Chairman Vu Hong Thanh emphasized the need for special solutions to restore production in businesses in localities affected by the recent Typhoon No. 3.

The review agency also recommended continuing to manage monetary policy in a truly proactive, flexible, timely, and effective manner. Maintaining liquidity stability and ensuring the safety of the banking system; decisively and effectively implementing the plan to restructure credit institutions associated with handling bad debts and weak banks; developing long-term solutions to mobilize and supply sufficient capital for the economy and requiring the implementation of strategic breakthroughs in infrastructure and human resource development; and developing fundamental and sustainable solutions to direct capital flows into production and business, especially in priority sectors.

Simultaneously, strengthen the management and supervision of the gold market, stock market, corporate bond market, and real estate market, along with solutions to stabilize and promote market development, and consolidate investor confidence. Research and implement solutions aimed at the healthy and sustainable development of the corporate bond market to support corporate capital mobilization, thereby promoting private investment and supporting Vietnam's goal of high and sustainable economic growth.

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