The United States is Vietnam's largest export market and also a key market that many Vietnamese businesses are targeting to boost their export activities.
The United States is Vietnam's largest export market.
According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam-US trade exceeded $100 billion for the first time in 2021, reaching $111.5 billion. In 2022, despite facing many difficulties due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, bilateral trade still showed remarkable growth, with a turnover of nearly $124 billion.
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| The United States is currently Vietnam's largest export market. (Illustrative image) |
In 2023, trade volume decreased to $110.8 billion (down 10.5% compared to 2022), of which Vietnam exported goods worth $97 billion to the United States, down 11.3% compared to 2022, while imports from the United States reached $13.8 billion, down 4.5%. The trade surplus with the United States reached $83.2 billion, down 12.3% compared to 2022.
In 2024, total bilateral trade between Vietnam and the United States is estimated to reach over $132 billion. Of this, Vietnam's exports to the United States are nearly $119 billion, a 23.3% increase compared to the previous year. Conversely, imports from the United States reached $13 billion, a 7.3% increase. Thus, the Vietnam-US trade surplus is estimated at $106 billion, an increase of over 26%.
These figures confirm that the United States is Vietnam's largest export market and its second-largest trading partner; while Vietnam has risen to become the eighth-largest trading partner of the United States and the fourth-largest export market for the United States in the ASEAN region, playing an increasingly important role in the global supply chain. Key export items from Vietnam include footwear, wooden furniture, machinery, and optical equipment.
According to Ms. Cao Thi Phi Van, Deputy Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Trade and Investment Promotion Center (ITPC), the United States is currently Vietnam's leading trading partner, and it is also a key market that many Vietnamese businesses are targeting to boost import and export activities.
According to Associate Professor Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh, an economic expert, Donald Trump's re-election as President of the United States will have many impacts on the import and export activities of countries, including Vietnam. Donald Trump's policies are geared towards the United States, therefore, he may impose high tariffs on imported goods from certain countries.
However, Donald Trump is a businessman with very sharp insights. We also hope that if the policies of President-elect Donald Trump's administration are not drastically different from the previous term, this will be a good opportunity for Vietnam to boost its import and export activities.
According to economist Dinh Trong Thinh, Vietnam's largest export market is currently the United States. With President Donald Trump and the current US administration, they understand Vietnam better, and therefore, they are not overly scrutinizing Vietnamese goods. Of course, they still have requirements to ensure that goods exported to their country meet certain standards, so we must strive to meet those standards ourselves.
But in my opinion, these things aren't that important, because when the US economy grows well, the income of American citizens increases, their spending also increases, and they will boost imports. On the other hand, when their production grows well, they also have to import raw materials and components. Thus, these are conditions that allow us to export goods more effectively.
The US government imposes taxes on all goods imported into its market. Taxes mean higher prices and greater difficulty in selling goods, but this applies worldwide , not just in Vietnam.
Imposing tariffs on Mexico also benefits Vietnamese goods because Mexico primarily exports agricultural products to the United States, thus improving Vietnam's competitiveness. Furthermore, the exchange rate management approach, which aims to maintain the stability of the VND against the USD, prevents currency devaluation, thus ensuring our ability to export goods to the United States in the future.
On the other hand, if we maintain the stability of the VND against the USD, it will encourage investors to invest in Vietnam, leading to higher economic growth, greater access to new machinery and technology from around the world, and improved export capabilities.
Of course, there will also be changes, and we must monitor them closely, be flexible, and proactively adapt. However, the overall picture is that Vietnam's production, business, and import-export activities in general, and to the US market in particular, will improve.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade works alongside export businesses.
In an interview with a reporter from the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang - Senior Lecturer at the Institute of International Trade and Economics, National Economics University - assessed that Vietnam's current warning mechanism is very good, so businesses have avoided trade defense lawsuits. Along with Vietnamese businesses diversifying their markets and developing along supply chains, Americans are also willing to share the risks when buying Vietnamese goods. They are also looking for ways to import Vietnamese goods more easily.
On the other hand, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang also believes that if Vietnam's diplomatic policy is skillful, we can not only avoid risks but also have great opportunities in our import and export activities.
Currently, Vietnam lags behind China and Mexico in terms of trade surplus with the US market. Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), stated that Donald Trump's goal is to reduce the trade deficit, boost domestic production, and attract investment.
To maintain export turnover to the US market, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has outlined two scenarios. The optimistic scenario assumes the US maintains its current tariff policy on Vietnamese goods. In the context of shifting supply chains, Vietnam could potentially attract investment to boost exports.
In the second scenario, if stricter tariffs are implemented, they could impact the global economy, potentially affecting Vietnam's exports to some extent. For this scenario, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will consider reporting to the Government to support manufacturing and exporting businesses in diversifying their markets in the future.
Michael Kokalari, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Market Research at VinaCapital, said, "We believe that Vietnam will maintain its stable growth momentum under the Trump administration."
Vietnam's skillful "Bamboo Diplomacy" policy in maintaining good relations with all the world's major powers has contributed to its success, and there is no reason to believe this will change. While the United States may impose new tariffs on imported goods, we believe it is highly unlikely that the US will impose heavy tariffs (20-30%) on goods imported from Vietnam.
Furthermore, even if the United States imposes comprehensive tariffs, Vietnam will still maintain an advantage over other competitors in terms of FDI inflows. Therefore, the factors that make Vietnam attractive to manufacturers and have attracted billions of dollars in FDI will continue to persist.
| The official announcement by the two countries to upgrade their relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in September 2023 has created a solid foundation, enabling deeper and more substantive cooperation across all pillars, with the economic, trade, and investment pillar continuing to play a central role in promoting bilateral relations. |
Source: https://congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-hang-hoa-sang-hoa-ky-khuyen-nghi-tu-chuyen-gia-368891.html
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