US expert warns of war turning in Russia's favor

Russia started the conflict with a series of stumbles, but its experience in urban combat is giving it an advantage over Ukraine, according to US experts.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 1 ordered the army to continue the offensive to control Maryinka, a city in eastern Ukraine, after capturing Bakhmut.

General Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Chechen Akhmat Special Forces Regiment, said that Russia controlled about 70% of the city of Maryinka. "The regular forces of the Ministry of Defense , including the 150th Motorized Rifle Regiment, are actively advancing and repelling the enemy in this direction," he said.

According to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), this is a sign that Russian forces are regaining momentum on the battlefield in Ukraine and the view that "the Russian army is weakening" is too outdated or misunderstood based on incomplete information about the real situation.

"A recurring theme among Western analysts since the conflict began is that the Russian military is weaker than expected, while the Ukrainian armed forces have consistently exceeded expectations. Few have realized that after more than 15 months of fighting, the battlefield situation has changed and is gradually tilting in Russia's favor," former US Army Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis wrote on the military website 19fortyfive .

American experts pointed out that in the early stages of the war, Russia's combat plan had many loopholes from the tactical to the strategic level. Moscow mobilized only nearly 200,000 troops for the campaign in Ukraine, a number that is considered too small for this mission, especially when they have to be distributed on 4 fronts in one of the largest countries in Europe.

Russian T-90M tanks prepare to attack Ukrainian positions in February. Photo: RIA Novosti — Russian T-90M tanks prepare to attack Ukrainian positions in February. Photo: *RIA Novosti*

Logistical weaknesses also made it difficult for Russian forces to fight, unable to achieve their initial goal of quickly controlling the capital Kiev and key cities of Ukraine.

In contrast, the Ukrainian army was well prepared and put up much more fierce resistance than Russia had expected. They stopped the attacks and inflicted heavy losses on the enemy, forcing Russia to withdraw its forces from the area around the capital Kiev and Kharkov and regroup in eastern Ukraine.

The shift in operations and the concentration of forces on the Donbass front helped Russia capture a series of key cities such as Mariupol, Lyman, Popasna, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, consolidating control over two important provinces, Donetsk and Lugansk. However, the Russian army still showed many weaknesses at the tactical level, including the incident in May 2022 when a battalion tactical group (BTG) was wiped out while trying to cross the Seversky-Donetsk River.

The Ukrainian army first took the initiative when it launched a surprise counterattack in the direction of Kharkov in September 2022, targeting the weakest point in the defense line of Russian forces, which were then focused on the Kherson front in the south. Russian units had to hastily withdraw more than 100 km, establishing a new defense line Svatavo - Kremenna.

At this time, the Russian army was forced into a difficult situation in the city of Kherson, the capital of the province of the same name. They had to choose between defending the city at all costs or withdrawing to the east bank of the Dnieper River, ceding control of the city to Ukrainian forces.

The commander of the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine at the time, General Sergei Surovikin, chose to withdraw to preserve his forces. The decision led Western analysts to ridicule the Russian military, saying that they had suffered heavy losses in the counter-offensive. Kiev's statements about victory have received continued support, with former US Army General Ben Hodges declaring that Ukraine "could win in 2022".

"Many people conclude that the Russian military is rigid, incapable of change, and will remain weak until the end of the war. However, they do not realize that Russia still has enormous military potential to compensate for the losses. History has shown many times that Russia has started poorly in wars and suffered heavy losses, but then recovered and turned the tide," Davis commented.

In more than 15 months of fighting, Ukraine has lost four battles in key cities including Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Soledar and Bakhmut, and suffered increasingly heavy losses.

The former US lieutenant colonel said the big difference is that when faced with great pressure of attack, Russia is willing to abandon urban areas to establish more solid defense lines nearby, while Ukraine is determined to hold out to the end in its cities.

"Withdrawing from Kharkov and Kherson allowed Russia to build a stronger defense line, preserving its forces from fierce urban battles. On the contrary, Ukraine lost a lot of soldiers and equipment to the battles in important cities, but eventually let them fall into the hands of the enemy. The decision to hold on to Bakhmut at all costs could have a big impact on the further developments in the war," he said.

Some analysts said in December 2022 that Ukraine was unlikely to hold Bakhmut, as Russian forces began closing in on the city and putting Ukrainian supply lines within artillery range. “Ukraine should have learned from Russia and pulled back to more defensible positions in Kramatorsk or Sloviansk. That would have cost Moscow more,” Davis said.

The Ukrainian army has likely lost tens of thousands of soldiers, along with a large amount of equipment and ammunition in the four urban battles. This makes them suffer more losses, since Russia still has many reserves to deploy and is capable of manufacturing its own weapons according to battlefield needs.

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said on June 1 that in the first 6 months of this year, the Russian defense industry has produced more than 600 tanks to compensate for losses on the battlefield. RUSI also recently commented that the Russian armored force has learned a lot of experience, adjusted tactics and applied a series of improvements to adapt to reality.

"Russia has learned many lessons from its tactical mistakes, and there is evidence that it has improved its operational plans and expanded its industrial capacity. Meanwhile, Ukraine is not only lacking in equipment but also losing experienced soldiers," Davis commented.

The situation on the Russia - Ukraine battlefield. Graphics: WP

Ukraine is facing a big question: should it launch a counterattack while its army is still strong enough to cause maximum damage to the Russian army, or should it preserve its forces in case the enemy launches a summer offensive?

"The balance of the battlefield is gradually shifting towards Russia, although this may disappoint many in the West. The US government must avoid further escalation and must do everything possible to end the conflict soon. Ignoring this reality could cause Ukraine to suffer heavier losses and put the security of the US itself in danger," former Lieutenant Colonel Davis admitted.

Vu Anh (According to 19fortyfive )

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