Wall Street money suddenly "turns around", triggering bitcoin's rise

(Dan Tri) - Bitcoin has just made a spectacular comeback, surpassing the 90,000 USD mark, erasing the worries of early December. Not only thanks to the Fed, the unexpected return of Vanguard is triggering a wave of large cash flows.

Just a few days ago, the cryptocurrency market was still in a gloomy red when bitcoin (BTC) slid to the $85,000 region, causing a series of concerns about a new crypto winter. However, the wind has changed direction quickly. As of now (morning of December 3), bitcoin is trading firmly around the $92,000/BTC mark, up more than 7% in just 24 hours.

This dramatic turnaround is not simply a technical recovery. Behind the green color of the electronic board is a story of policy changes by giant financial institutions and a "reversal" signal from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

The cryptocurrency market rebounded strongly on December 2 as traders reacted to soaring expectations for a Fed rate cut and a boom in US ETF activity following Vanguard's decision to lift its long-standing ban on buying bitcoin ETFs (Photo: Cryptodnes).

The Vanguard Effect - When the Giant Awakens

If before, institutional investors were still timid, the news that Vanguard, one of the world's largest asset managers, officially lifted the ban on trading cryptocurrency ETFs (including BTC, ETH, XRP and SOL) from December 2 created a strong psychological boost.

Financial analysts are calling this the “Vanguard effect.” Eric Balchunas, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, pointed to an unlikely coincidence: Bitcoin jumped 6% as U.S. markets opened, just as Vanguard clients were allowed to start trading.

"The trading volume of the IBIT fund (iShares Bitcoin Trust - an ETF product issued by BlackRock) reached 1 billion USD in just the first 30 minutes. Even the most cautious investors of Vanguard have started to take risks," Balchunas commented.

Not staying out of the game, Bank of America has just announced that it will allow more than 15,000 financial advisors to recommend that their clients allocate between 1% and 4% of their portfolios to cryptocurrencies. The "opening" move by these two giants has brought millions of investors who were previously cautious into the market, creating a huge new source of demand that the market has long awaited.

Fed "unleashes" liquidity: A doping dose for the market

Aside from the ETF story, the biggest macro driver for bitcoin to regain momentum is the Fed's announcement to end its quantitative tightening (QT) program.

The end of QT means that the pressure to withdraw liquidity from the market has been removed. Even the Fed's injection of an additional $13.5 billion in liquidity right after QT ended is considered a direct "doping" dose for risky assets.

Market sentiment is now heavily betting on the Fed to continue easing. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at its December 10 meeting has jumped to 87.2%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Traders on Kalshi are even more bullish, predicting as many as three rate cuts by 2025.

History has shown that when interest rates are low and liquidity is abundant, smart money tends to look for high-yielding channels like Bitcoin. The combination of Fed easing and major financial institutions opening up is creating a "perfect storm" for buyers.

Outlook 2025-2026: Accumulate to explode?

Although the growth momentum is very exciting, experts also give cautious and realistic perspectives for the upcoming journey.

Derek Lim, head of research at Caladan, believes that despite surpassing $90,000, bitcoin will likely continue to trade in a wide range (around $83,000-95,000/BTC) from now until the end of 2025. The reason is that the market still needs time to absorb macro news and capital flows need to rebalance after the strong volatility in early December.

However, the long-term picture is much brighter. Analysts predict that if the Fed follows through on its expected rate cuts, Bitcoin could break out to the $110,000-$135,000/BTC range by 2026.

“We are in the correction phase of a bull market, not the beginning of a bear market,” said Tim Sun, a researcher at HashKey Group. He said the current market does not have the excessive euphoria or crazy speculation of previous cycle peaks, but instead the necessary caution to form a solid bottom.

However, the risks remain. The key support level that experts have identified is $75,000/BTC. If the price breaks below this level, the bullish scenario will be invalidated.

With money flowing in and the US regulatory landscape becoming clearer with positive signals from the SEC, the crypto market seems to be accumulating a large source of "potential energy". As Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, shared: "In this period, good news can be ignored but not forgotten. They are accumulating to wait for the moment to explode".

The market will now hold its breath waiting for the Fed's December meeting - the final piece of the puzzle to confirm whether this rally is the start of a new record.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/dong-tien-pho-wall-bat-ngo-quay-xe-kich-hoat-da-tang-bitcoin-20251203095834411.htm