Vietnam's M&A market is forecast to blossom in 2025

The Vietnamese M&A market in 2025 is predicted to "flourish," reaching impressive figures, with many sectors such as finance, education , and healthcare expected to attract investor interest.

The Vietnamese M&A market in 2025 is predicted to "flourish," reaching impressive figures, with many sectors such as finance, education, and healthcare expected to attract investor interest.

This forecast was made by Mr. Nguyen Cong Ai, Deputy General Director of KPMG Vietnam, at the 16th Vietnam Mergers and Acquisitions Forum 2024 (M&A Vietnam Forum 2024) organized by Investment Newspaper on the afternoon of November 27th in Ho Chi Minh City.

According to data released by KPMG Vietnam, the M&A market in Asia and Southeast Asia remained sluggish in the first nine months of 2024, with transaction volume and value in the region remaining low.

However, in the first nine months of 2024, Vietnam recorded a significant improvement in M&A transaction value, with a growth rate of 46% (compared to a decrease of 11.3% in total transaction value in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines) despite a decrease of 11.6% in transaction volume compared to the same period last year.

Mr. Nguyen Cong Ai, Deputy General Director of KPMG Vietnam, presents a paper at the M&A Forum 2024. Photo: Le Toan

In the first nine months of 2024, domestic investors led the activity in Vietnam's M&A market. The largest deal so far this year, valued at $982 million, was the acquisition of a 55% stake in SDI Investment and Trading Development Company, a subsidiary of Vingroup that indirectly owns 41.5% of Vincom Retail, by a group of Vietnam-based companies.

The real estate sector contributed the second largest deal when Becamex IDC transferred a $553 million housing project in Binh Duong to Sycamore Limited, a subsidiary of CapitaLand Group from Singapore.

In the consumer sector, a significant deal was the US-based Bain Capital's $255 million investment in Masan Group through a private placement. Additionally, Masan Group also acquired $200 million worth of shares in VinCommerce from SK South-East Asia Investment.

M&A activity in the first nine months of 2024 mainly took place in the real estate (53%); consumer essentials (14%), and industrial (21%) sectors, accounting for a total of 88% of the transaction value and ranking among the top 5 largest M&A deals.

In the first nine months of 2024, domestic investors played a major role in Vietnam's M&A market, accounting for 53% of the total value of announced transactions, nearly double the combined value contributed by the four largest foreign investors.

According to Mr. Nguyen Cong Ai, compared to last year in terms of transaction value, the essential consumer goods and industrial sectors have replaced financial services and healthcare as the largest contributors, while real estate continues to hold the leading position this year.

Some sectors have disappeared from the M&A market, such as the energy and services sectors, which dominated the M&A market in 2022 but have recently been absent. This indicates a shift in the sectors attracting M&A attention.

According to Mr. Nguyen Cong Ai's assessment, the Vietnamese M&A market in 2025 is projected to "blossom," reaching impressive figures. Key sectors such as real estate, manufacturing, information technology, and consumer goods continue to show strong growth potential, attracting interest from strategic investors.

"The number of M&A deals is expected to increase in key sectors such as technology and real estate thanks to supportive government policies. Investment trends are shifting towards technology sectors such as AI and technology-based services, a group expected to account for a significant proportion of M&A transactions from 2025," Mr. Nguyen Cong Ai predicted.

Foreign investors, primarily from Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and the US, who previously led M&A activity in Vietnam, are expected to return from 2025 and beyond.

Explaining his assessment, the Deputy General Director of KPMG stated that Vietnam's macroeconomic stability is the foundation for the development of the M&A market. With stable GDP growth, controlled inflation, and rising incomes, Vietnam is a bright spot in the M&A markets, attracting interest from regional and global investors.

Regarding the challenges affecting the M&A market in 2025, these will include geopolitical tensions, the imposition of tariffs on many countries by the administration of US President-elect Donald Trump, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and increased difficulties for investment funds in moving capital abroad.

Given the numerous challenges in M&A in 2025, Mr. Nguyen Cong Ai advises that businesses undertaking M&A need a multi-faceted and comprehensive due diligence approach to identify risks and assess the company's growth potential.

Financial, commercial, legal, and ESG (environmental, social, and governance) factors need to be considered to ensure the transaction meets the multifaceted requirements of the buyer and creates long-term value for all parties.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/du-bao-thi-truong-ma-viet-nam-se-no-hoa-trong-nam-2025-d231079.html