Coffee prices could fall up to 30% by 2025

Arabica coffee futures contracts are expected to see prices fall by as much as 30% between now and the end of the year.

Recent record-high prices have caused a decline in demand, while there are early signs of a bumper coffee crop in Brazil. Coffee prices Robusta prices can also decline at a similar rate.

According to a Reuters survey, the forecast for Arabica coffee prices at the end of 2025 could reach over $6,200 per ton, 30% lower than current prices. Robusta coffee prices are also projected to end the year at $4,200 per ton, down 28% from this week's closing price.

Brazil's Robusta coffee production is projected to increase to 24.5 million bags in the 2025-2026 crop year, up from 21 million bags the previous year. Vietnam's Robusta coffee production – the world's largest producer of this type of coffee – is also projected to increase, reaching 29 million bags from 28 million bags the previous year.

In the domestic market today (February 21st), coffee prices fell sharply after yesterday's strong increase. Currently, the purchase price of coffee in the Central Highlands provinces ranges from 131,000 to 132,200 VND/kg, a decrease of 1,200 to 1,300 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Specifically: Dak Lak, Gia Lai: 132,000 VND/kg (-1,300 VND). Lam Dong: 131,000 VND/kg (-1,200 VND). Dak Nong : 132,200 VND/kg (-1,300 VND).

Compared to the highest price recorded on February 19th (133,500 VND/kg), coffee prices have fallen by approximately 1,500 - 1,700 VND/kg in just two trading sessions, indicating selling pressure in the market amidst plummeting global coffee prices.

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