OECD: Vietnam maintains positive growth foundation in 2026

Consumption is one of the growth drivers of Vietnam's economy .

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has just released the World Economic Outlook Report for December 2025, in which it assessed that the global economy continues to demonstrate resilience, but still contains many potential vulnerabilities.

For Vietnam, the OECD sees growth remaining positive in 2025, with real GDP increasing by 8.2% in the year to the third quarter of 2025. The main growth drivers include final consumption, investment and exports of goods and services.

Unemployment rate remains at 2.2%, a record low from Q3/2024; underemployment falls sharply; labor force participation rate increases.

Exports of goods and services are expected to increase by 15.5% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, despite global policy uncertainty. Exports to the United States alone, which account for 30% of Vietnam’s total exports, increased by 27.7% in the same period.

OECD assesses that FDI inflows will continue to increase steadily from mid-2023 and will be an important growth driver for Vietnam.

In the next two years, the OECD forecasts that Vietnam's real GDP growth will likely be affected by weaker external demand, which will affect exports.

However, private consumption is forecast to remain buoyant thanks to improving real wages and employment, while investment will continue to be supported by rising public investment and favorable financial conditions.

The OECD also warned that risks to growth prospects would increase if trade barriers continued to be raised or if trade and tariff policy developments reduced Vietnam's attractiveness to investors.

The OECD assesses that monetary policy is currently in a loose state, starting from June 2023 through reducing interest rates and setting credit growth targets. In the context of rising prices, the OECD recommends that the State Bank closely monitor inflationary pressures and adjust support if necessary.

On the fiscal side, public investment spending will continue to act as a growth stimulus in the short term, to offset lower-than-planned disbursements in previous years. However, as inflationary pressures increase, the OECD believes that a gradual shift towards a more neutral fiscal stance is needed.

The reduction of VAT from 10% to 8% is expected to end at the end of 2026. In addition, the increase in pensions, minimum wages, public service prices as well as VAT adjustments will create inflationary pressure in the period 2026-2027.

The OECD believes that Vietnam’s productivity and economic efficiency can be enhanced through a series of reforms. Accordingly, shifting to a monetary management mechanism that relies more on price signals would help increase the economy’s resilience and improve capital allocation.

The organization also recommends creating incentives to reduce the size of the informal workforce, which currently accounts for about two-thirds of the workforce, to expand social security coverage and increase the overall productivity of the economy.

In addition, institutional reform, expanding competition and attracting FDI into the service sector will promote higher value-added manufacturing industries, creating a more level playing field for the private sector, thereby allowing resources to move to more productive enterprises.

The OECD rates Vietnam as one of the fastest growing economies in Asia. While the short-term outlook is affected by trade risks and global policy uncertainty, Vietnam maintains a positive growth foundation, with room for reform to consolidate the recovery and growth momentum.

nhandan.vn

Source: https://baolaocai.vn/oecd-viet-nam-duy-tri-nen-tang-tang-truong-tich-cuc-trong-giai-doan-2026-2027-post888121.html