Fourth quarter growth could exceed 9%

Associate Professor Dr. NGUYEN THUONG LANG, Senior Lecturer at the Institute of International Trade and Economics, National Economics University, said that GDP in the fourth quarter could increase by 9.1 - 9.3% or even higher, helping the whole year's growth reach 8.2 - 8.5%. The main growth driver in the last quarter of the year is public investment, especially large infrastructure projects.

Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang , Senior Lecturer, Institute of International Trade and Economics , National Economics University

Open institutions, spectacular growth

- In the third quarter of 2025, our country's GDP growth will reach 8.23%. How do you evaluate this result?

- The third quarter growth was spectacular, rare and of special significance, bringing the GDP in the first 9 months up 7.85% over the same period last year.

This achievement clearly reflects the strong recovery and growth trend of the Vietnamese economy, and affirms the correctness and effectiveness of macroeconomic management policies in recent times. Although the international environment still contains many uncertain factors and can negatively impact the domestic economy, so far, these effects have not been clearly evident.

Other macroeconomic indicators also recorded positive results. For example, import-export turnover in the first 9 months exceeded the 680 billion USD mark, and the whole year is forecast to reach 920 - 950 billion USD. Registered foreign direct investment (FDI), including newly granted capital, adjusted capital, capital contribution and share purchase, reached 28.54 billion USD, up 15.2% over the same period last year.

The tourism industry also recorded strong progress, with 15.4 million international arrivals in the first nine months, up 21.5% over the same period in 2024. Even agricultural exports, a sector that is subject to many market barriers, are forecast to reach 70 billion USD this year - a record high.

- What is the significance of the resolutions issued by the Politburo recently in removing economic bottlenecks, sir?

- New resolutions such as Resolution No. 57-NQ/TW on science, technology, innovation and national digital transformation; Resolution No. 59-NQ/TW on international integration; Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW on private economic development; and Resolution No. 66-NQ/TW on innovation in law making and enforcement... show great political determination in removing barriers, liberating productive forces, and promoting sustainable development.

For example, Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW has established the position of the private economy as a leading important driving force, instead of being considered only as a supporting component as before. At the same time, the state economic sector has also been repositioned with a focus on innovation in research and development. Resolution No. 66-NQ/TW also lays the foundation for perfecting a synchronous and effective legal system, contributing to creating a more transparent and favorable investment and business environment.

This is a comprehensive “institutional revolution”, when bottlenecks in management, administration, and policy implementation are gradually removed, like a “compressed spring” being released strongly, creating new development momentum for the economy. From there, there is a basis to believe that these resolutions will pave the way for breakthrough growth not only in the fourth quarter but also in the coming years.

The development trend is very positive.

- What is your forecast for GDP growth in the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2025? What are the driving forces for growth?

- GDP growth in the fourth quarter is forecast to reach 9.1 - 9.3%, or even higher, helping the whole year reach 8.2 - 8.5%; with a positive scenario, it could reach 8.7%. The main growth driver in the fourth quarter comes from public investment, especially large infrastructure projects such as the North - South high-speed railway, national expressway projects and Long Thanh International Airport...

In addition, Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW expands space for the private economy, along with low interest rates, creating favorable conditions for this sector to boost investment. FDI capital flows are also expected to reach a record of 31-33 billion USD, contributing to promoting exports and industrial production.

Domestic consumption has recovered strongly thanks to rising incomes and high year-end demand, especially during festivals and shopping events. At the same time, accelerating digital transformation, green transformation and perfecting the two-tier local government model have also created new momentum for growth.

- So what are the difficulties that the economy will face, sir?

- First of all, the US tariff policy also has the potential to create trade barriers, affecting export turnover.

Domestically, many unfavorable factors such as real estate prices and prices of some essential goods tend to increase. Logistics costs remain high, while infrastructure and high quality human resources are still commensurate with development potential. The majority of domestic enterprises are still small and medium-sized with limited competitiveness.

Along with that, international competition pressure is increasing, as many countries are also implementing strong policies to promote exports, accompanied by increasingly strict trade defense measures. In addition, new environmental standards, green transition and carbon taxes of the EU, or US tariff barriers on items such as wooden furniture, continue to be barriers to Vietnamese goods.

- In the coming time, what should be done to make the most of growth drivers and strive to achieve the set goals, sir?

- The Politburo's resolutions need to be quickly institutionalized into specific legal regulations and implemented synchronously and promptly. At the same time, it is necessary to accelerate the completion of the two-level local government apparatus; drastically cut at least 30% of administrative procedures; and reduce official costs for businesses and people.

Synchronous investment in strategic infrastructure and development of high-quality human resources, especially in key industries such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence and high-tech agriculture, is also a key task.

Despite many challenges, the development trend in the coming time is still very positive. If the above solutions are implemented drastically and effectively, the economy will not only maintain a sustainable growth rate but also create a new aggregate demand driver, thereby promoting a breakthrough and achieving the double-digit GDP growth target in at least the next 6 years.

Thank you!

Source: https://daibieunhandan.vn/tang-truong-quy-iv-co-the-vuot-9-10391137.html