What are the drivers of economic growth in 2025?

DNVN - Dr. Luong Van Khoi, Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management Research (CIEM), forecasts several drivers for economic growth in 2025. These include drivers related to inflation control; growth in the industrial and service sectors; and exports…

Speaking at the seminar "Investment 2025: Decoding Variables - Identifying Opportunities" on December 12th, Dr. Luong Van Khoi, Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management Research (CIEM), stated that Vietnam aims for GDP growth of 6.5-7% in 2025 and strives for 7-7.5%. In the long term, the government is determined to achieve double-digit growth once bottlenecks are removed.

"Vietnam is aiming for double-digit GDP growth, and there's little doubt about that. The core element lies in improving the operational efficiency of businesses," Mr. Khoi emphasized.

Sharing his views on Vietnam's economic situation in 2024, Mr. Khoi stated that the growth results for 2024 show a significant breakthrough, with a projected growth rate of 7%, regaining the growth momentum from the pre-COVID-19 period. Compared to other ASEAN countries, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast in October 2024, Vietnam will have the highest growth rate in the region.

Dr. Luong Van Khoi - Deputy Director of CIEM Institute, delivered a speech at the workshop.

Over the past year, despite complex and unpredictable geopolitical developments, Vietnam, a market linked to 16 free trade agreements (FTAs), has seen increased global demand for Vietnamese goods. However, the domestic economic sector has not contributed significantly to growth. The leading economic regions (Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, Binh Duong , Dong Nai, and Ba Ria-Vung Tau) are seeing a gradual decrease in their contribution to the current GDP.

The Deputy Director of CIEM predicts that in 2025, the geopolitical situation at all levels will remain uncertain and unpredictable. It may even become more complex. The global economic environment will improve or remain at a level similar to 2024.

For Vietnam's five major economic partners, economic growth will see alternating periods of improvement and decline. A notable factor is that the US is projected to ease monetary policy in the near future, and other countries are expected to follow suit. China has also announced it will ease monetary policy at a reasonable level.

For the Vietnamese economy, several drivers for economic growth in 2025 include: inflation remaining under control in 2025; stable growth in all three economic sectors, with the industrial and service sectors experiencing stronger growth.

At the same time, living standards have improved, and the number of international tourists is expected to continue growing strongly, helping to boost domestic market growth. Exports and FDI attraction remain bright spots with positive growth rates.

Furthermore, infrastructure is constantly improving. In particular, the extension and expansion of expressways to many localities enhances inter-regional connectivity, and the commissioning of the 500kV high-voltage power line (circuit 3) ensures energy stability between regions, especially during the dry season.

The strong increase in State budget revenue in 2024 provides a basis for the State to continue increasing public investment spending and spending on development support policies in 2025. Several newly enacted policies will help form a better institutional framework for economic development, especially the new laws enacted in 2023 and 2024 such as the Land Law, Housing Law, Real Estate Business Law, and Bidding Law, which are now in effect and have been institutionalized in detail.

"The institutional framework for development in 2025 will be more favorable thanks to the improved institutional content, which includes more easily identifiable and observable innovations," Mr. Khoi said.

Comment (0)