Housing prices in Ho Chi Minh City will continue to increase in the next 10 years.

This is the assessment of experts when forecasting the market recovery, the impact of new laws, the supply-demand imbalance, and the outlook for house prices in the coming years.

Many positive signs following the new law.

On December 18th, the Ho Chi Minh City Business Association (HUBA) organized a real estate seminar with the theme: "The Road to a New Decade of Growth".

Ms. Duong Thuy Dung, CEO of CBRE Vietnam, shared an overview of the real estate market 10 years ago. This shows that the real estate market is currently cyclical.

According to Ms. Dung, from 2013-2014, the real estate market gradually recovered from the crisis, with stable supply growth and house prices increasing by an average of 3-4% per year. In particular, the 2014 Land Law, replacing the 2003 Law, was considered a major boost, creating an important legal foundation for development. However, the market still faces cycles of ups and downs.

According to CBRE Vietnam's forecast, the market is beginning to show signs of recovery, with approximately 30,000 new apartments expected to be offered for sale in 2024.

The expert added that the market in 2022-2023 also faced similar difficulties to 2012, with falling prices. Besides objective factors, there were also subjective factors such as lengthy project licensing and approval processes.

Entering 2024, the market is beginning to show signs of recovery, with an estimated 30,000 new apartments expected to be offered for sale. Notably, Hanoi currently leads in supply, with over 27,000 apartments, while Ho Chi Minh City continues to face difficulties due to legal obstacles. This represents a significant shift from the past, when Ho Chi Minh City was the market center.

Sharing his views from a policy perspective, Mr. Pham Dang Ho, Head of the Housing Development and Real Estate Market Department of the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Construction, said that new laws such as the Land Law, the Housing Law, and the Real Estate Business Law have helped make the market increasingly transparent and minimize legal risks for both businesses and customers. However, legal procedures remain complex, prolonging project implementation times and discouraging many businesses.

Ho Chi Minh City has established a special task force to shorten the approval process, integrating steps such as 1/500 scale planning, land allocation, and investment policy approval. In addition, the city's master plan is currently under review by the Ministry of Construction and is expected to be approved in the first quarter of 2025, which will help expedite project implementation in the future.

Regarding social housing specifically, Mr. Ho stated that current selling prices closely reflect construction costs, and developers are exempt from land use fees. However, the supply has not yet received adequate attention from businesses. The city government is striving to promote this segment in 2025, aiming to highlight the role of social housing in urban development policies.

Challenges related to capital and housing prices.

The figure that has attracted the attention of many experts and businesses is that outstanding credit in Ho Chi Minh City reached over 3.82 million billion VND, an increase of 1.14% compared to the previous month; an increase of 8.1% compared to the end of 2023 and an increase of 12.5% compared to the same period last year.

Mr. Nguyen Duc Lenh, Deputy Director of the State Bank of Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City branch, said that the credit growth in Ho Chi Minh City in recent months is consistent with the growth trend of the economy . During this period, the demand for capital for production, business, trade, services, and consumption increased, becoming the main factor driving credit growth in the last month of the year.

However, Dr. Dinh The Hien, a financial expert, noted that many real estate businesses are facing a serious capital shortage, as new capital from banks is not flowing into the market. Financial reports from listed companies show that liquidity is a major problem.

Regarding housing prices, Ms. Dung predicts that prices will continue to increase by approximately 10% annually over the next three years, especially in the high-end and luxury segments. New supply in Ho Chi Minh City is recovering slowly, projected at only around 9,000 apartments in 2025 and increasing to 11,000 in 2026. In the short term, housing prices are unlikely to fall unless strong measures are implemented to decentralize the population, which will take a long time to execute.

"In the mid-range and affordable segments, there is still a serious shortage of supply, putting significant pressure on people's housing needs. This situation is particularly evident in Ho Chi Minh City, where infrastructure has not improved much and land prices in central areas are soaring," Ms. Dung shared.

Mr. Huynh Phuoc Nghia, an expert from the Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics, also emphasized that it is very difficult for people aged 30-35 with an income below $2,000 per month to buy a house. Owning a home in Ho Chi Minh City is only possible with support from government policies, family, or preferential loan funds.

According to experts, expanding transportation infrastructure and urbanization in areas outside the city center will help balance the market and reduce pressure on the city center. However, Mr. Nghia predicts that infrastructure in Ho Chi Minh City will remain a major challenge for the next 10 years, but after this decade, with proper investment, the market will develop more sustainably.

From another perspective, Dr. Dinh The Hien affirmed that the sustainable development of the real estate market must go hand in hand with the actual needs of the people. Ho Chi Minh City cannot continue to focus solely on social housing or the high-end segment, but needs to invest more heavily in the mid-range segment, serving customers with genuine housing needs. This will be a key factor in creating a sustainable market in the next 10 years.

Overall, experts agree that 2025 will be a pivotal year for the transformation of the real estate market, with high expectations from supportive policies and a recovery in supply. However, to achieve sustainability, close coordination between the government, businesses, and the people is needed to remove legal bottlenecks, balance supply and demand, and create conditions for all citizens to access their dream homes.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/batdongsan/gia-nha-tai-tphcm-se-tiep-da-tang-trong-10-nam-toi-d232927.html