Interest rates edged higher during the year-end peak.

Photo caption — Customers conducting transactions at Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade. Photo courtesy of Tran Viet/TTXVN.

Existing liquidity pressure

Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, deposit interest rates have become more dynamic as a series of banks have adjusted interest rates upwards across various maturities. Most recently, the Vietnam Investment and Development Bank ( BIDV ) has officially joined the "race" to increase interest rates.

According to the new interest rate schedule, BIDV has significantly increased interest rates for short and medium-term deposits, with the 6-11 month term increasing by as much as 0.7%/year – a rare adjustment in recent months. The 12-month term remains unchanged, while longer terms from 13-36 months have increased by 0.1%/year. Currently, online savings interest rates at BIDV range from 2.6%/year for 1-2 month terms, 4%/year for 6-11 month terms, and reach a maximum of 5%/year for 24-36 month terms.

Prior to BIDV, Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade (VietinBank) also increased online deposit interest rates at the end of November. However, when considered in the context of the entire market, the "Big 4" banks still maintain the lowest interest rates. Vietnam Foreign Trade Joint Stock Commercial Bank (Vietcombank), Vietnam Agricultural and Rural Development Bank ( Agribank ), and VietinBank all maintain the highest interest rates at or near 5% per year for long-term deposits. This shows that the role of state-owned banks in stabilizing the market remains strong, while the real "race" is taking place among joint-stock commercial banks.

In this group, interest rate increases are not only significant but also flexible across different customer segments. Vietnam International Commercial Bank (VIB) raised the 12-month term interest rate to 6.5%/year; digital banks like Vikki Bank, Cake by VPBank , and Vietnam Prosperity Commercial Bank (VPBank) boosted interest rates for both short-term and long-term deposits. Some banks even offered special interest rate packages of up to 7-8%/year for large deposits.

Parallel to Market 1 (mobilization from institutions and individuals), developments in Market 2 (interbank market) more clearly reflect short-term liquidity pressure. Overnight interest rates rose to 5.4%, and 1-week rates to 5.82%, a sharp increase compared to the end of November. The rapid increase in interbank interest rates, especially in the short-term group, indicates that banks are having to rotate capital more quickly to meet year-end liquidity needs.

The problem of balancing cash flow

According to analysts, the main reason for the simultaneous increase in deposit interest rates by banks stems from seasonal factors. The end of the year is a period when the demand for capital from businesses and the economy increases, while banks need to boost lending to meet their annual targets.

In fact, credit growth recovered strongly from the third quarter and accelerated in the final months of the year. As of November 27, 2025, outstanding loans in the entire system reached over VND 18.2 million billion, an increase of 16.56% compared to the beginning of the year, the highest level in the last 5 years. Notably, credit has exceeded the target of 16% growth compared to the end of 2024, while the rate of capital mobilization growth has been significantly lower, causing many banks to quickly use up almost all of their allocated credit limits.

Not only has credit increased rapidly in scale, but it also shows structural imbalances. Nearly 70% of total credit flows into the service sector, while the physical production sector – the foundation for productivity growth and exports – accounts for only 24%, and agriculture, forestry, and fisheries account for less than 6.2%. This poses a dual challenge for monetary policy – ensuring sufficient capital for growth while simultaneously controlling risks and directing credit flows towards more sustainable sectors.

According to Dr. Nguyen Quoc Hung, Vice President and General Secretary of the Vietnam Banking Association, credit growth by the end of the year could reach 19-20%, higher than the initial target. However, the State Bank of Vietnam will adjust the credit "room" flexibly, prioritizing banks that fully meet safety standards such as Basel II and Basel III, while strengthening supervision to avoid systemic risks.

This assessment suggests that the increase in deposit interest rates is not a sign of instability, but rather a natural market reaction to high capital demand and pressure to balance cash flow. In this context, the fact that some banks are adjusting interest rates upwards by about 0.5-1% per year is considered to be within a manageable scenario.

From the perspective of depositors, even with low real interest rates, savings accounts have never lost their importance. Dr. Pham Xuan Hoe, former Deputy Director of the Institute of Banking Strategy, believes that for the elderly or retirees, saving remains the optimal choice due to its safety and stability, especially compared to investment channels like gold or real estate, which inherently carry risks and are difficult to manage. Notably, in the context of interest rates not being truly attractive for long-term investment, many depositors choose short-term savings as a "temporary haven" for their money.

Overall, the upward trend in deposit interest rates at the end of the year accurately reflects market dynamics and the rhythm of the economy. This is a period when banks must rebalance their capital to meet high credit growth, while the State Bank of Vietnam continues to play the role of "conductor" regulating to avoid interest rate shocks. With a multi-tiered capital structure and an increasingly sophisticated risk management system, the ability to ensure liquidity and system safety is still assessed positively.

Interest rates may continue to rise in the near future, but according to experts, the increase will not be significant and will remain within a reasonable range, sufficient to maintain stability in the monetary market without disrupting the recovery of production and business.

According to Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam Pham Thanh Ha, the State Bank will continue to closely monitor developments in the macroeconomic situation and domestic and international financial and monetary markets, including the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decisions and the roadmap and direction for interest rates to be announced next week. This will allow for proactive and flexible management of monetary policy tools, closely coordinating with fiscal policy and other macroeconomic policies to continue supporting liquidity for credit institutions through various channels. This will help stabilize the money and foreign exchange markets, especially during the peak period at the end of the year, contributing to maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and supporting economic growth.

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