The wave of bank mergers and acquisitions is back with deals worth billions of dollars.

(Dan Tri Newspaper) - No longer a "rescue" operation, bank M&A in 2026 is shifting to a proactive approach. A series of multi-billion dollar capital sale deals are being triggered thanks to the new legal framework on easing foreign ownership limits.

Amidst a resurgence of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Vietnam, the banking and finance sector is also anticipating major deals.

Shifting from a "forced" approach to a proactive one.

The Vietnamese financial market is no stranger to M&A deals, but previously, this activity was mainly focused on "rescuing" or restructuring weak credit institutions. Typical examples include recent mandatory transfers such as CBBank to Vietcombank, Ocean Bank to MB, GPBank to VPBank, and DongA Bank to HDBank .

However, as we enter 2026, experts predict that the "appetite" for M&A will completely shift towards a more proactive approach. The goal of banks will no longer be to resolve bad debts, but rather to leverage foreign capital, adopt advanced management technologies, and expand market share.

At a recent M&A forum, Mr. Do Quang Vinh, Vice Chairmanof SHB , stated that the position of the seller has changed. "Businesses today are proactively seeking partners to expand internationally, not because of financial difficulties. Support from foreign investors helps domestic banks strengthen processes, increase resources, and leverage global networks," Mr. Vinh emphasized.

The biggest impetus for this trend comes from the new legal framework. Decree 69/2025/ND-CP allows for an increase in the foreign ownership ratio (foreign room) up to 49% for banks undergoing mandatory transfer (such as MB, HDBank, VPBank ). This is an attractive "loophole" to attract strategic investors.

According to VIS Rating, this move is crucial given that banks need massive medium- and long-term capital to maintain asset growth above 25% per year. Without timely increases in Tier 1 capital, the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of this group could fall by 150-300 basis points by the end of 2026.

Several deals are expected.

M&A flows in Vietnam have been booming again (Photo: DT).

A series of big names enter the race to sell their stakes.

The market's focus is currently on Vietcombank's private placement plan. After being postponed to 2024, the sale of 6.5% of this major bank's capital is expected to be completed next year. Simultaneously, BIDV and Techcombank are also actively negotiating the sale of shares, with expected stakes reaching double digits (over 10%).

Among private banks, VIB and SHB are becoming "hot commodities" thanks to their significant remaining foreign ownership limit. Specifically, after Commonwealth Bank of Australia divested its stake, VIB has approximately 25% of its foreign ownership limit vacant, while SHB has 26%. Most recently, LPBank also joined the race by presenting to shareholders a plan to increase its foreign ownership limit from 5% to 30%, a move paving the way for its upcoming fundraising strategy.

The appeal of "king" stocks is further amplified by the prospect of market upgrade. FTSE Russell's planned upgrade of the Vietnamese stock market from frontier to secondary emerging market will trigger billions of dollars in capital inflows from ETFs. The banking sector, with its significant weighting in the projected index, creates a dual opportunity to improve liquidity and valuation.

However, global capital flows are becoming more stringent. A PwC report indicates that foreign investors are now scrutinizing digital transformation capabilities, ESG models, and risk management expertise very closely.

Sharing the same view, Mr. Do Quang Vinh believes that transparency is a core element. Nevertheless, the SHB leader expressed optimism about the large-scale deals scheduled for 2026, believing that the massive influx of foreign capital will be a crucial driving force behind the country's GDP growth.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/lan-song-ma-ngan-hang-tro-lai-voi-nhung-thuong-vu-ty-usd-20251212112717804.htm