Industrial real estate is out of breath
The total value of bond issuance by non-financial enterprises in 2024 will reach about VND150,000 billion, up 8.4% over the same period last year. Nearly half of this is for debt restructuring purposes - according to the latest report from Vietnam Investment Credit Rating Joint Stock Company (VIS Rating).
According to VIS Rating, the residential real estate business group – including the resort segment – has a positive outlook thanks to increased housing demand and improvements in legal procedures. Investors are expected to accelerate project implementation in 2025 and seek the bond market to raise capital. In particular, continued favorable access to bank credit will support the recovery momentum of this group.
In contrast, the industrial real estate sector may face more challenges. Risks related to new tax policies from the US are slowing down foreign investment and project expansion in this sector. In the first four months of 2025, newly registered FDI capital decreased by 24% compared to the same period last year – leading to cautious sentiment among industrial park developers.
Despite being supported by the State Bank's policy of reducing credit risk coefficients and the outstanding bank loans of 30 listed enterprises increasing by 34% in 2024, the amount of bonds issued by the industrial park real estate group decreased by 18%. VIS Rating believes that mobilization activities through bond channels in this group will continue to be limited in 2025.
Electricity and automobiles accelerate production thanks to support policies
The automobile and electricity sectors have emerged as two new bright spots in the corporate bond market. For the automobile sector, the policy of eliminating import tax on automobile components from February 2025 is expected to encourage businesses to expand domestic production. Names such as VinFast and Tasco are expected to actively raise capital through bonds to expand factories and supply chains. It is forecasted that the value of automobile bond issuance in 2025 will maintain a high growth rate, equivalent to the 33% increase of the previous year.
For the electricity sector, especially renewable electricity, the issuance momentum may accelerate by the end of 2025. Recent positive developments in negotiating price mechanisms for transitional renewable electricity projects have contributed to improving financial feasibility, creating a basis for businesses to boldly mobilize capital to expand investment.
VIS Rating said that the total value of non-financial corporate bonds maturing in 2025 will reach VND151,000 billion, an increase of 9% compared to 2024. However, the risk of debt restructuring is assessed as "still under control", thanks to improved market liquidity and proactive early bond repurchase by businesses.
In the first 4 months of 2025, bond repurchase and early repayment activities increased by 97% compared to the same period last year. Notably, up to 73% of the value of newly issued bonds (equivalent to VND 13,200 billion) was used for debt restructuring purposes. Of the bonds maturing in 2025, about 60% are in the residential real estate sector - an industry group with favorable prospects in accessing capital and extending agreements with bondholders.
However, in the electricity sector, about 30% of the VND4,100 billion of maturing bonds are transitional renewable energy projects - which are still experiencing delays in principal and interest payments. VIS Rating expects that when these projects complete electricity price agreements and officially enter commercial operation, cash flow will improve, contributing to ensuring debt obligations.
Market overview, VIS Rating forecasts that the growth rate of non-financial corporate bond issuance in 2025 will be equivalent to the 13% achieved in 2024. Residential real estate, automobile and electricity businesses will continue to play a leading role in leading the market, while higher-risk industries such as industrial park real estate will need more time to recover.
Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/phat-hanh-trai-phieu-doanh-nghiep-2025-bat-dong-san-cong-nghiep-hut-hoi/20250514093226866
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