| Sugarcane is displayed for sale at a market in Bangalore, India. (Source: AFP) |
India's move comes as a first in seven years, amid a lack of rain that is reducing sugarcane yields.
India's absence from the global market could drive up benchmark prices in New York and London – where sugar is trading around multi-year highs. This raises concerns about the risk of increased inflation in the global food market.
According to Indian government sources, New Delhi's main focus is meeting domestic sugar demand and producing ethanol from surplus sugarcane. In the upcoming crop year, India is likely to run out of sugar to fulfill its export quota.
India has only allowed mills to export 6.1 million tonnes of sugar in the current crop year ending September 30, after permitting businesses to sell a record 11.1 million tonnes in the previous crop year.
In 2016, India imposed a 20% tax on sugar exports to curb overseas sales.
According to the Meteorological Department of India, rainfall in the leading sugarcane-growing districts of Maharashtra and Karnataka states – which account for more than half of India's total sugar production – has been up to 50% lower than the average for this year.
In addition, erratic and scattered rainfall will reduce sugar production in the 2023-2024 season and may even reduce planting in the 2024-2025 season.
Forecasts indicate that India's sugar production could fall by 3.3% to 31.7 million tonnes in the 2023-2024 season.
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