Standard Chartered forecasts moderate economic growth in Vietnam.

Standard Chartered Bank believes that although short-term economic pressures may still exist in Vietnam, the economy's performance is better than market expectations.

Standard Chartered forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 to reach 6.8%. (Photo: Vietnam+)

On November 5th, in its latest economic update on Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank projected that Vietnam's macroeconomic data for October showed a revision in growth forecasts compared to September, although key economic sectors remained relatively strong. This slight downward trend could support the maintenance of low interest rates. Standard Chartered forecasts Vietnam's 2024 GDP growth at 6.8% (up from 6.0%), with a slowdown in growth from the third quarter. The bank also forecasts fourth-quarter growth at 6.9%. Retail sales are likely to reach 6.2% (up from 7.6%), exports at 6.2% (up from 10.7%), while electronics exports have improved year-to-date. Imports and industrial production are likely to increase by 4% and 9.2%, respectively. Credit growth remained at around 9% year-on-year as of the end of September. Vietnam has recorded several months of surplus this year, and the foreign trade sector remains relatively stable. Monthly trade surpluses could increase to US$3.8 billion in October compared to US$2.3 billion the previous month, contributing to a series of surplus months this year. Tim Leelahaphan, Thailand and Vietnam economist at Standard Chartered Bank, noted that while short-term economic pressures in Vietnam may persist, Standard Chartered believes the economy is performing better than market expectations. The government's push for stronger economic growth could support the maintenance of low interest rates in the near future. Inflation has recently declined but is likely to rise to an estimated 3% in October and is expected to continue increasing annually, with the next increase projected in mid-2025. "With the rising inflation trend and the potential for a weakening VND, we expect the State Bank of Vietnam to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points in Q2 2025," Tim Leelahaphan shared.

Vietnamplus.vn

Source: https://www.vietnamplus.vn/standard-chartered-du-bao-kinh-te-viet-nam-tang-truong-o-muc-vua-phai-post989362.vnp