Coffee exports hit record high, but will next year still be 'good'?

Xuất khẩu cà phê đạt kỷ lục nhưng năm tới liệu có còn 'ngon ăn'? - Ảnh 1. — Vietnamese farmers are entering the beginning of the coffee harvest season - Photo: TTO

Many experts believe that in 2025 and possibly early 2026, coffee prices are likely to remain at a good level, but after that prices may fluctuate more strongly, so businesses need to be more cautious with speculation and stockpiling activities.

Europe is still the largest market for Vietnamese coffee exports.

A record that is hard to break

According to information from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), the Vietnamese coffee industry has closed the 2024-2025 crop year with a historic mark when export turnover reached a record 8.4 billion USD, the highest level ever.

Specifically, by the end of the 2024-2025 crop year (October 2024 to September 2025), Vietnam's coffee exports will be over 1.5 million tons, with an export turnover of over 8.4 billion USD, up 1.8% in volume and 55.5% in turnover compared to the 2023-2024 crop year. This is the highest turnover in all crop years to date. Vietnam's average coffee export price in the 2024-2025 crop year will reach 5,610 USD/ton, up 52.7% over the previous crop year.

In the last crop year, Europe remained the largest market for Vietnamese coffee exports with a volume of over 710,000 tons (accounting for 47.2%), a turnover of over 4 billion USD (accounting for 46.7%). By country, Germany ranked first with 196,000 tons (accounting for 13%), followed by Italy with 125,000 tons (8.3%), Spain with 110,000 tons (7.3%), Japan with 90,000 tons (6%), and the US with 88,000 tons (5.8%).

Not only successful in coffee production, coffee export also had a remarkable mark in 2025. As of mid-October, the export volume reached 1.27 million tons, turnover of 7.21 billion USD, up 12.5% in volume and more than 62% in value over the same period last year.

According to VICOFA leaders, this crop year was particularly successful as the value increased by 55.5% while the volume only increased by 1.8%, a record that is not easy to break, showing that Vietnam's coffee industry has benefited greatly from the world price increase cycle.

Will coffee next year still be "easy to eat"?

According to records, many gardeners in Vietnam have entered the new harvest season with the price of green coffee beans currently ranging from 116,000-118,000 VND/kg, a slight increase compared to last week and a quite high price compared to previous years.

Speaking to Tuoi Tre Online on November 1, Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai - Chairman of VICOFA, assessed that the next crop year's coffee price will not maintain the same good level as this crop year due to increased output. However, it is not easy to correctly assess price movements because this industry is being greatly affected by increasingly unpredictable climate change; trade wars, financial speculation, exchange rate fluctuations, etc.

"Over the past 2.5 years, prices have increased sharply, so farmers have increased investment in garden care and new planting, leading to a forecasted increase of 5-10% in Vietnam's 2025-2026 crop output. Similarly, if the weather is good, Brazil's output in the next crop will also increase sharply. However, this year, the price of green coffee beans may not fluctuate much, remaining at around 100,000 VND/kg," Mr. Hai predicted.

Sharing the same view, Mr. Do Ha Nam , Chairman of the Board of Directors and General Director of Intimex Group (a leading exporter of green coffee beans) - said that there is still a situation of holding goods or selling them in moderation in the two leading coffee exporting countries in the world, Brazil and Vietnam, which has contributed significantly to keeping coffee prices high in the past time and the possibility of good prices in the near future. However, prices may decrease more when Brazil enters the crop season in 2026.

"In addition to the crop season, the regulation of sales and handling of inventory next year by the world's number one coffee exporting country will also significantly affect coffee prices next year," Mr. Nam assessed.

Meanwhile, the leader of a large agricultural export enterprise in Ho Chi Minh City said that if the enterprise intends to speculate and stockpile large quantities of goods when Vietnam enters the autumn season (mainly the last two months of the year), then buying and selling must be done cautiously.

Because the price of Vietnamese coffee depends on the international exchange. In addition, under the influence of many factors, even beyond the law of supply and demand, the coffee industry will likely not be very stable when entering 2026, especially in the middle of next year when Brazil enters the harvest season.

From the gardeners' perspective, the price of 70,000-100,000 VND/kg of coffee beans is a high profit level for Vietnamese farmers (production cost is about 35,000-40,000 VND/kg) and quite good compared to previous years, when it was commonly only about 40,000-60,000 VND/kg.

According to the leaders of the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment , in the 2024-2025 crop year, the coffee area nationwide will reach 731,900 hectares, of which 678,500 hectares have been harvested; the replanting area will reach about 20,000 hectares, equivalent to 96.4% of the plan.

Vietnam has completed a traceability database for 137,000 hectares of coffee, and is expanding to 462,000 hectares, equivalent to 80% of the coffee area in the Central Highlands. Thanks to these efforts, the European Union has classified Vietnam as a "low risk" group in implementing the EUDR Regulation, inspecting only 1% of imported shipments.

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NGUYEN TRI

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/xuat-khau-ca-phe-dat-ky-luc-nhung-nam-toi-lieu-co-con-ngon-an-20251101165233422.htm