AI: Bubble about to burst or entering maturity?

AI - Ảnh 1. — The AI craze may have passed its peak.

Artificial intelligence (AI) was touted as the "new flame of the industrial revolution," expected to generate a trillion-dollar boost. However, after a period of speculative boom and record-breaking revenue reports, the market is showing clear signs of cooling down.

From the decline in major tech stocks and falling GPU costs to a series of studies showing that 95% of AI projects have yet to yield financial benefits, all of this is leading observers to question: Has the AI bubble peaked?

AI: From the expectation of a "new industrial revolution" to a harsh reality.

In just two years, AI has been elevated to the level of a "new industrial revolution," attracting massive investments from technology corporations, venture capital funds, and even governments .

Nvidia consistently reports record revenues thanks to the booming demand for AI chips, Microsoft and Google spend tens of billions of dollars expanding their data centers, while Meta bets on AI as a key growth engine.

However, this euphoria is revealing a downside. The stock market reacts negatively even when companies "exceed expectations," indicating that investor expectations have been pushed too high.

Nvidia is a prime example: revenue surged, but the stock still fell after the earnings announcement because the market felt the outlook held few surprises.

Stocks that "follow AI trends," such as AMD and Super Micro, also experienced sharp corrections as profits were not attractive enough, signaling that investors are becoming increasingly cautious.

Massive infrastructure investments and the question of their actual effectiveness.

Behind the optimism lie massive spending figures. Microsoft plans to spend over $80 billion on AI infrastructure in fiscal year 2025, a figure equivalent to the defense spending of many countries.

Google and Meta are equally competitive, continuously announcing plans to build next-generation data centers. This demonstrates that long-term faith in AI has not diminished, but it also raises a thorny question: will this massive investment yield commensurate returns?

In reality, the operating costs and infrastructure development expenses of AI are increasingly weighing on the profit margins of the "big players." That's why many tech companies are simultaneously cutting staff and restructuring to offset investment costs.

A paradox exists: AI is seen as a cost-effective tool for businesses, yet the very development of AI is causing corporations to spend more than ever before.

AI - Ảnh 2. — AI is gradually losing its appeal in the market.

GPU prices cool down, supply is less strained.

One of the clearest indicators of the cooling down of the "AI craze" is the price of AI chips. Just a year ago, the rental price of Nvidia H100 chips on the cloud was as high as $8 per hour, making it difficult for many startups to sustain their experimental models. Now, that price has dropped to around $2.8-$3.5 per hour.

This is due to the stabilizing hardware supply, increased competition among suppliers, and businesses being forced to optimize GPU usage instead of spending lavishly as before. This is both a positive sign for the market's maturity and reflects that demand is no longer as high as during the peak period of 2023-2024.

95% of GenAI projects fail, and the investment paradox.

A study from MIT shocked the public by showing that 95% of pilot Generative AI projects did not deliver clear financial benefits. Many businesses deployed AI without specific KPIs, leading to results that were immeasurable or not integrated into production and business processes. This doesn't mean AI is useless, but it exposes a significant discrepancy between expectations and reality.

Simultaneously, the capital market also reflects an alarming imbalance. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, the AI sector attracted $104 billion in venture capital, but only $36 billion was divested. This means that money continues to pour in like a waterfall, while the exit (IPO, M&A) remains unclear. This situation is very similar to previous tech bubbles, where investment capital far exceeded the value created in the short term.

AI - Ảnh 3. — The AI market is saturated.

While the US and Europe focus on technological competition, China faces the risk of "building more than it needs." A multitude of AI data centers are being deployed based on policy, even without specific tenants.

Alibaba has had to issue a warning about an "infrastructure bubble" as supply exceeds demand. This "planned" development model has helped China quickly catch up technologically, but it can also create costly oversupply if actual demand doesn't grow fast enough.

All of these signals suggest that the AI craze has cooled down. But this isn't a dot-com bubble about to burst in 2000. The biggest difference is that the need for AI truly exists, global digital infrastructure needs upgrading, and businesses are still looking for ways to apply this technology to increase productivity.

It's simply a matter of speed and efficiency. The market is entering a "filtering" phase, where only companies with sustainable business models and clear ROI will survive. "Glamorous" startups lacking a solid foundation will gradually disappear, while AI will continue to evolve, but at a more practical pace.

AI is no longer a fleeting "craze," but is gradually becoming a mature industry where every expenditure is scrutinized. Investors, businesses, and governments have moved beyond the dream phase to face a more difficult challenge: how to transform this technology into real value.

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PHAN HAI DANG

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/ai-bong-bong-sap-vo-hay-buoc-vao-giai-doan-truong-thanh-20250903103854784.htm