According to the December 2025 strategic report recently published by SSI Securities Corporation, the Vietnamese stock market is currently in a bottoming phase and is likely to enter a strong growth cycle from 2026, with the VN-Index surpassing 1,920 points.
According to SSI, after two consecutive months of decline, the VN-Index recovered in November, closing at 1,690.99 points, up 51.3 points, or 3.13%, compared to the previous month. Notably, the majority of the increase came from large-cap stocks, especially VIC – which rose by 36.3% and contributed approximately 60 points to the overall recovery. VPL shares also increased by 23.2% during the month, while the oil and gas and food and beverage sectors recorded positive performance.
Cumulatively since the beginning of the year, the VN-Index has increased by approximately 33%. However, if the influence of stocks belonging to the Vingroup ecosystem is excluded, the actual increase is only about 13%. Market liquidity remains low, with the average trading value in November only around 20,000 billion VND/session, a decrease of 35.5% compared to October.
Historical data shows that the market typically experiences strong growth between December and March each year. The probability of a price increase during this period is 75%, significantly higher than the period from April to November (around 50%). The average return is 1.7% per month, far exceeding the 0.5% per month of the remaining months.
Outlook for 2026: VN-Index aims for 1,920 points
SSI Securities maintains a positive outlook on the market prospects for 2026. Vietnam aims for double-digit GDP growth during the 2026–2030 period, supported by economic structural reforms, strong FDI inflows, and accelerated infrastructure investment. These are fundamental drivers that provide a foundation for corporate profit growth and the sustainability of the stock market.
Against this backdrop, SSI raises its VN-Index target for 2026 to 1,920 points. According to calculations, the index is currently trading around a projected 2025 P/E ratio of 14.5 times – equivalent to the regional average, but the prospect of corporate profit growth is superior (14.5% compared to the regional average of 11.5%). In 2026, the projected market P/E ratio is expected to decrease to around 12.7 times, lower than the historical 10-year average (14 times), thereby reinforcing its valuation attractiveness.
SSI also noted that the net selling pressure from foreign investors is clearly easing. Although foreign investors continued to net sell in November with a total value of approximately VND 6,800 billion – the fourth consecutive month of capital withdrawal – the rate of selling has slowed down. Notably, in the first week of December, foreign capital flows returned to net buying.
SSI believes the biggest opportunities lie in the banking sector, especially stocks with good profit growth prospects and attractive valuations. The consumer sector is also positively assessed thanks to recovering domestic demand, expanding retail networks, and the policy of raising the personal income tax threshold effective from January 2026 – a factor that could help increase disposable income for households.
With a stable macroeconomic foundation, attractive valuations, and signs of a return of foreign capital, SSI assesses that the Vietnamese stock market is entering a trough in its cycle, opening up prospects for strong growth in the next two years.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/chung-khoan-viet-nam-khong-co-bong-bong-xac-suat-tang-diem-thang-12-toi-75-196251210222120889.htm
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