Latest forecast on year-end deposit interest rates

(NLĐO) – Savings deposit interest rates are expected to continue rising as banks step up capital mobilization for lending.

Statistics from the Vietnam Banking Association (VNBA) over the past month show that 18 commercial banks increased interest rates; 6 banks decreased interest rates, and surprisingly, 3 banks both increased and decreased interest rates across some maturities.

Among them, SeABank saw the most significant increases, rising by 0.85 percentage points for 6-month deposits at the counter to 4.6%/year; by 0.79 percentage points for 9-month deposits to 4.74%/year, and by 0.65 percentage points for 3-month deposits to 4.1%/year. Currently, the highest rate at this bank is 5.75%/year for 24-36 month deposits at the counter, with interest paid at the end of the term.

Over the past month, Agribank has also recorded an increase in interest rates by 0.5 percentage points for terms from 1-9 months deposited at the counter, reaching 2.2%-3.5% per year. Currently, the highest rate at this bank is 4.8% per year for a 24-month term at the counter.

Deposit interest rates are expected to rise towards the end of the year.

At many other banks, interest rates increased slightly by 0.1-0.3 percentage points per year for deposits made at the counter and online. Statistics from VNBA show that six banks slightly reduced interest rates by only 0.1% per year for some terms, at the counter and online, including: BacABank, Indovina, BaoVietBank, NCB, Nam A Bank, and ABBank.

Three banks simultaneously increased and decreased interest rates across certain maturities: Indovina, BaoVietBank, and NCB.

Commenting on interest rate trends from now until the end of the year, Mr. Nguyen Hung, General Director of TPBank , said that the slight increase in interest rates is mainly short-term due to pressure partly from the rising USD/VND exchange rate. He forecasts that interest rates will remain lower in early 2025 as the US and many other central banks lower interest rates. The pressure to increase interest rates in the near future is not too high, mainly in the short term.

In their latest money market update report, experts from MBS Securities Company stated that after about two months of stagnation, deposit interest rates began to rise again in November, with 16 banks, including major banks such as Agribank, Techcombank, and MB, increasing savings interest rates by 0.1 to 0.7 percentage points.

"This upward trend is expected to continue until the end of this year, with credit growth almost double the rate of deposit growth. The recovery in credit growth, coupled with stronger acceleration in production and investment towards the end of the year, will put some pressure on system liquidity and may lead to an increase in deposit interest rates," commented Ms. Tran Khanh Hien, Director of Securities Analysis at MBS.

Based on the above factors, it is predicted that the 12-month deposit interest rates of major commercial banks may increase by 0.2 percentage points, fluctuating around 5.1%-5.2% by the end of this year.

Meanwhile, Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macroeconomics and Market Strategy at VNDIRECT Securities Company, said that increased credit demand is putting pressure on deposit interest rates. As of November 28th, the average 12-month deposit interest rate had slightly increased by 0.02 percentage points compared to the previous month, reaching 4.83% per annum. The forecast is for the average 12-month deposit interest rate to be between 4.9% and 5% by the end of this year.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/lai-suat-hom-nay-11-12-du-bao-moi-nhat-ve-lai-suat-tien-gui-cuoi-nam-196241211162404269.htm