The race for Japan's leadership is intense.

To date, nine candidates are competing for the position of LDP President. Since this is the ruling party in Japan, whoever becomes LDP President will replace the current Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, to lead the government. All nine candidates are prominent figures in Japanese politics.

A considerable burden.

On September 14th, all nine candidates were present at the Japan Press Club to discuss upcoming policy directions for the country. According to The Japan Times, the discussions covered a wide range of issues, including Japan's relations with the United States and China, as well as how to restore public confidence in the LDP.

Gay cấn cuộc đua vào ghế lãnh đạo Nhật Bản- Ảnh 1. — Candidates vying for the LDP presidency at the Japan Press Club on September 14. *From left:* Sanae Takaichi, Takayuki Kobayashi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Shinjirō Koizumi, Yōko Kamikawa, Katsunobu Katō, Taro Kono, Shigeru Ishiba, Toshimitsu Motegi

Earlier, in mid-August, Mr. Kishida officially announced that he would not run for LDP president in September. This decision came under pressure regarding his handling of the LDP scandal. A prominent scandal within the LDP was the November 2023 leak of falsified financial reports on the party's fundraising, which angered the Japanese public. Following this, Mr. Kishida restructured the party apparatus, but failed to achieve the desired results. These scandals were accompanied by internal factionalism within the LDP.

Although not personally involved in the scandals, Prime Minister Kishida has been accused by the media and the public of poor governance. In a Kyodo News poll in June, only about 10.4% of the Japanese public wanted Kishida to continue as prime minister, while 62% opposed it.

Kishida's most notable achievements during his tenure included strengthening the alliance with the United States, elevating Japan's standing in many international and regional issues, and adopting a firm stance toward China, Russia, and North Korea. In particular, he resolved long-standing disagreements with South Korea, leading to significant progress in strengthening bilateral relations.

Assessing Prime Minister Kishida's tenure, Professor James Brown, a political science specialist at Temple University in Japan, stated that Prime Minister Kishida performed his role well, only he was unlucky to be a "very unfortunate" victim of a political party tainted by scandals.

In fact, with nearly three years in power (taking office in October 2021), Kishida remains the eighth longest-serving Prime Minister of Japan since World War II. If we consider the 11 Prime Ministers Japan has had since 2000, Kishida is the third longest-serving, after Shinzo Abe (almost nine years) and Junichiro Koizumi (about five and a half years).

Bright stars

After Mr. Kishida withdrew and nine candidates emerged for the LDP presidency, the four most prominent were Shinjiro Koizumi, Taro Kono, and Shigeru Ishiba, along with Sanae Takaichi. Shinjiro Koizumi is the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

In an interview with Thanh Nien newspaper yesterday, September 15th, Professor Stephen Robert Nagy (International Christian University - Japan, scholar at the Institute for International Studies in Japan) analyzed: "The election of the LDP president will be decided by the majority of conservative members in the party." Therefore, the candidate with the advantage must be someone with a conservative stance on issues that are truly important to voters, and with experience in controlling internal factions within the LDP...

Based on the above factors, Professor Nagy assessed: "Although Shinjiro Koizumi is rising to prominence, his young age and lack of experience are weaknesses. Both Taro Kono and Shigeru Ishiba are well-known figures in the public eye, but they don't enjoy much support within their respective parties. Ishiba's inability to communicate in foreign languages is also a weakness."

"Therefore, Ms. Sanae Takaichi has emerged as the most promising candidate. Currently serving as Minister of Economic Security, Ms. Takaichi was once supported by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. She also has organizational experience within the LDP. Her experience as a Japanese parliamentarian, her early years working for a US congressman, and her strong views on security and the importance of the US-Japan alliance will all be advantages," Professor Nagy commented.

According to the expert, the LDP's internal leadership selection process is likely not about who is more popular with the public, but rather about who can truly be a strong leader for Japan.

"Accordingly, the LDP chairperson will have to be someone capable of dealing with international challenges between the leaders of China, Russia, North Korea, and even in the event that Donald Trump or Kamala Harris are elected President of the United States. Considering this factor, in the context of a challenging world, Sanae Takaichi is very likely to become the first female chairperson of the LDP and also the first female Prime Minister of Japan," Professor Nagy assessed.

Meanwhile, if Shinjiro Koizumi wins, he will become the youngest prime minister in Japanese history.