No disciplinary action against party members who have third or more children: Hope to stop the decline in birth rate

"The policy of 'not disciplining party members who have a third child or more' is very urgent, especially in the context of Vietnam's birth rate showing a sharp downward trend, especially in urban areas," expert Nguyen Dinh Cu told VietNamNet.

The Central Party Office has just issued a document announcing the Politburo 's opinion on the preliminary review of the implementation of Resolution 21/2017 of the Central Committee of the Party (12th term) on population work in the new situation and the amendment of Party and State regulations related to population policy.

In a notice from the Central Party Office, the Politburo assigned the Central Inspection Commission to advise on and amend the regulations of the Central Committee, the Politburo, and the Secretariat related to handling violations of population policy, and to proactively amend Guidance No. 05/2022 of the Central Inspection Commission to avoid disciplinary action for cases of having a third child or more, in line with the amendment of legal regulations (without retroactive application to cases already subject to disciplinary action).

The Politburo has assigned the Party Committee of the National Assembly and the Party Committee of the Government to coordinate leadership and direction in accelerating the progress of drafting and submitting the Law on Population to the National Assembly for approval in accordance with the spirit of the 13th Party Congress Resolution in 2025. In the immediate future, the Politburo requests an urgent review and amendment of legal documents containing regulations on the number of children , to be completed in the first quarter of 2025.

Urgent policy

"This is a very urgent, necessary, and correct policy," Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu, former Director of the Institute of Population and Social Issues (National Economics University, Hanoi), told VietNamNet on February 20th. Professor Cu emphasized that this is even more significant in the context of the overall birth rate nationwide showing a sharp decline, especially in urban areas.

Until now, the regulation on "disciplinary action for having a third child or more" has not applied to the general public. With over 5.6 million Party members nationwide, according to Professor Cử, the policy of "not disciplining Party members who have a third child or more" not only affects this group but has a broader impact on the entire country.

The expert assessed that if implemented, the above regulation would be a breakthrough in policy , contributing to improving and halting the current decline in birth rates , "paving the way" for amending other regulations, specifically amending the 2008 Population Ordinance, building a Population Law, and creating a synchronized regulation within the political system.

"Anxiety over the declining birth rate"

"Observing the declining birth rate among Vietnamese people, I am very concerned," Professor Cu shared.

According to the results of the mid-term Population and Housing Survey recently released by the General Statistics Office, the fertility rate of Vietnamese people in 2024 will be 1.91 children per woman, the lowest level recorded in history. This is the second consecutive year that the fertility rate has fallen below 2 children.

According to the General Statistics Office, in 2024, Vietnam's total fertility rate was lower than the average of Southeast Asian countries (2 children per woman). Vietnam's fertility rate was only higher than four countries in the region: Brunei (1.8 children per woman), Malaysia (1.6 children), Thailand, and Singapore (1 child per woman).

According to the 2024 survey results, the fertility rate in urban areas is 1.67 children per woman, lower than in rural areas (2.08 children). In rural areas, prior to 2022, the fertility rate was always higher than the replacement level, but in the last two years, the fertility rate has started to decline sharply and is now slightly below the replacement level.

The number of localities with fertility rates below the replacement level is trending upwards. Specifically, there were 22 provinces in 2019, 27 provinces in 2023, and 32 provinces in 2024. Ho Chi Minh City and most provinces in the Southeast and Mekong Delta regions have fertility rates significantly lower than the replacement level (1.39-1.74 children per woman).

According to information from the Ministry of Health, the Population Department has completed the proposal for the Population Law to report to the Government; it is currently focusing on perfecting the institutional framework, specifically completing the draft law to submit to the National Assembly at its 10th session (2025) in order to put Resolution No. 21-NQ/TW into practice.

The Population Law drafted by the Ministry of Health is designed to eliminate the prescribed number of children per couple , instead empowering individuals and couples to make their own decisions and assume their responsibilities. This is considered a fundamental change in the Population Law compared to the previous Population Ordinance.

Under a low birth rate scenario, Vietnam's population growth rate will be negative in 24 years.

In its report assessing the impact of the Population Law project, the Ministry of Health acknowledged the reality that in some urban and socio-economically developed areas, a trend of not wanting or having very few children has emerged . The birth rate has fallen significantly below the replacement level, concentrated in the Southeast region, the Mekong Delta, and some provinces in the Central Coast. The agency has repeatedly predicted that the birth rate will continue to decline in the coming years.

Professor Cử stated that a prolonged period of low birth rates leads to many negative consequences such as rapid population aging, labor shortages, and impacts on social welfare, as seen in the experiences of many countries, in addition to causing resource waste.

"Population aging in Vietnam is happening very rapidly. I recently returned from a business trip to Thai Binh, and in one commune in Thai Thuy district, as many as 20% of the population are elderly," Professor Cu shared.

In the population forecast for Vietnam up to 2069, under the low birth rate scenario, Vietnam will face the risk of a negative average population growth rate (-0.04%) in 2059. Meanwhile, under the medium birth rate scenario, this number would only reach zero 10 years later (2069).

Vietnamnet.vn

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/khong-xu-ly-ky-luat-dang-vien-sinh-con-thu-3-tro-len-ky-vong-ngan-da-giam-sinh-2372953.html