Improving the capacity to forecast agricultural product consumption markets

In recent years, thanks to effective market forecasting, the province's agricultural sector has been able to mitigate the problems of "bumper harvests leading to price drops" and the failure of production and product consumption contracts between businesses, cooperatives, and farmers. Good market forecasting has also enabled cooperatives and farmers to develop production and business plans that meet market demands and minimize risks at the output stage, contributing to increased income for farmers and moving towards sustainable agricultural production.

Improving the capacity to forecast agricultural product consumption markets. Toan Nang Agricultural Service Cooperative, Truong Xuan commune (Tho Xuan district), is applying agricultural mechanization to the 2024 spring rice harvest.

Previously, due to a lack of information on agricultural production, when people in Nga Yen commune (Nga Son district) heard that a product like vegetables, sweet corn, or potatoes was fetching good prices, they would all expand their cultivated area without knowing the market or outlets for their products. Mr. Mai Trung Thong, head of Yen Loc village, said: Nearly 10 years ago, the problem of "bumper harvest, low prices" was a persistent and frequent occurrence in the locality. Many products such as potatoes, watermelons, and vegetables, which were once the local area's strengths, became a "burden" when they couldn't be sold. In addition, agricultural products have a short shelf life, so when they couldn't be sold, they spoiled, causing significant economic losses. Learning from this experience and with guidance from local authorities and the agricultural sector, since 2016, people have been producing based on analysis: Is there a high market demand for that particular product? Are there reputable businesses or distributors that buy and sell the products?... Thanks to this, the economic efficiency of agricultural production increases significantly, and people can confidently produce and get rich in their fields.

Visiting the safe vegetable and fruit production area of Nga Yen commune, we saw over 8 hectares of land covered in the lush green of various crops. While tending to their Kim Hoang Hau yellow melon crop in the greenhouse, Mr. and Mrs. Pham Van Sau explained: Their 7 sao (approximately 0.7 hectares) of arable land was previously used for growing potatoes and seasonal vegetables and melons. However, when people in the area and neighboring localities started producing these crops simultaneously, sales became difficult and economic efficiency was low. Therefore, they chose to invest in producing high-quality, off-season vegetables and fruits. These are products with high market demand, easy to sell, and offer higher economic returns. Thanks to this analysis, the people of Nga Yen commune have invested in over 21,000 square meters of greenhouses to produce a diverse range of high-quality, off-season vegetables and fruits, contributing to raising the average production value of the entire commune to approximately 200 million VND/hectare/year.

The 2024 spring crop was considered one of the most successful production seasons for the Toan Nang Agricultural Service Cooperative in Truong Xuan commune (Tho Xuan district). Based on the seasonal planning and production structure guidelines of the agricultural sector, the cooperative introduced several high-quality rice varieties such as ST25, TBR225, Bac Huong 9, and Tan Uu... These rice varieties have good grain quality and are favored by the market, leading to large-scale purchases by many businesses and traders. Therefore, the cooperative encouraged local people to cultivate these high-economic-value rice varieties on a large scale. In addition, the cooperative's management board regularly monitored weather forecasts and pest and disease information from the agricultural sector to develop appropriate care and protection plans. As a result, the average rice yield for the entire commune is estimated at approximately 71 quintals/hectare, 3 quintals/hectare higher than the provincial average. Mr. Ngo Dinh Su, director of the cooperative, said: "Not only do we research and understand the market for rice varieties with good sales, but the cooperative also proactively links with businesses so that when the locality harvests simultaneously, these businesses will come to purchase the rice at stable prices. In addition, through forecasts and market research from the agricultural sector, the cooperative also guides people to focus on suitable crop and livestock production, encouraging the development of agricultural products with production and consumption linkages. Thanks to this, for many years, Truong Xuan commune has not experienced the situation of bumper harvests leading to price drops, ensuring income for farmers."

In practice, to provide accurate market forecasts, specialized units under the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development have surveyed, analyzed, evaluated, and predicted factors affecting the circulation and consumption of agricultural products within the province, domestically, and for export. Based on this, they recommend that local authorities and farmers produce appropriate products in reasonable quantities at specific times. Accordingly, localities have restructured crop varieties, implemented crop rotation and staggered planting to reduce pressure on consumption during the main production season. At the same time, they ensure and improve the selling price of agricultural products.

Currently, to support market forecasting, the Prime Minister issued Decision No. 975/QD-TTg dated August 11, 2022, approving the Project "Promoting the application of information technology in collecting information and forecasting the agricultural market situation," with the goal of completing the construction of a centralized data center for the agricultural sector by 2025, focusing on in-depth analysis and forecasting of the agricultural market situation. In addition, the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development annually collaborates with relevant departments, agencies, and units to organize training courses on analyzing and forecasting agricultural market information for cooperatives and agricultural, forestry, and fisheries producers in the province. Through these training courses, managers at all levels, businesses, cooperatives, and cooperative groups are equipped with basic market knowledge and skills in exploiting, searching, synthesizing, analyzing, and evaluating the agricultural market. At the same time, guide businesses to adjust their production and business plans to suit actual conditions to ensure stable supply, balance supply and demand, and maintain linkages, helping people feel secure in their production and business activities and make profits.

Article and photos: Le Hoa

Source