Must build a power growth scenario 50% higher than Power Plan VIII

(PLVN) - To meet the target of at least 8% growth in 2025 and move towards double digits in subsequent years, the scale of power generation must increase by 2.5 - 3 times the current power capacity.

17/02/2025 06:12

Consultation meeting of the Appraisal Council for the revised Power Development Plan VIII. (Photo: Industry and Trade Newspaper)

(PLVN) - To meet the target of at least 8% growth in 2025 and move towards double digits in subsequent years, the scale of power generation must increase by 2.5 - 3 times the current power capacity.

Electricity demand is increasing sharply in line with growth targets.

At a recent consultation meeting of the Appraisal Council for the revised Power Development Plan VIII (abbreviated as PDP), Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien, also the Vice Chairman of the PDP, stated that, having set the goal of achieving a minimum economic growth rate of 8% by 2025 and striving for double-digit growth in subsequent years, Vietnam must achieve the goal of developing power generation capacity 2.5-3 times larger than the current capacity by 2030, and further increasing it to 5-7 times larger by 2050.

To achieve these goals, energy growth must be synchronized with economies of scale, while also meeting international commitments to carbon neutrality by 2050. This requires a rapid adjustment of the Power Development Plan VIII, even though it was only approved in 2023, to align with strong growth demand and the clean energy transition trend.

Mr. Nguyen Anh Tuan, Vice Chairman and General Secretary of the Vietnam Energy Association, affirmed that adjusting the electricity demand forecast is necessary, consistent with reality and the development orientation of the Party and the State. According to Mr. Tuan, with a projected GDP growth rate of 8% in 2025 and 10% in the period 2026-2030, electricity demand will increase significantly.

However, Mr. Nguyen Anh Tuan emphasized the need to calculate contingency plans by region to avoid localized power shortages, instead of a nationwide contingency plan. For the period 2031-2035, reducing the growth rate of electricity demand is reasonable and consistent with the trend of shifting towards a service-based economy and reducing energy-intensive industries. Furthermore, a thorough assessment of electricity demand for green transportation, especially the North-South high-speed railway and the Metro system, is necessary.

Mr. Nguyen Anh Tuan also argued that energy development strategies need to be balanced across regions. While the North faces electricity shortages, the Central region has a surplus. "We should take advantage of the solar power potential in the North. Germany has 96,000 MW of solar power with only 900 hours of sunshine per year, while Northern Vietnam has up to 1,200 hours of sunshine," Mr. Tuan cited as an example, recommending a rational development policy and equitable investment allocation across regions to optimize resources and reduce capital pressure.

Research is needed on economic development in Central Vietnam.

Mr. Ngo Tuan Kiet, former Director of the Institute of Energy Science, assessed that currently, the North and South remain the two main economic centers, while the Central region, despite possessing significant renewable energy potential, has not been adequately exploited. Mr. Kiet proposed researching a scenario for the economic development of the Central region to reduce the pressure on electricity transmission to the North and South. This would not only minimize the risk of natural disasters to the transmission system but also maximize the utilization of available local energy sources.

This opinion was echoed by Vice Chairman of the Central Council Nguyen Hong Dien, who suggested: "We could establish data centers in the Central region or create industrial complexes that utilize a lot of clean energy in this area, which would help the Central region develop. When the Central region's economy develops, we will also be able to exploit its natural potential and advantages to develop renewable energy."

During the consultation, most experts agreed that a scenario for electricity growth should be developed that is significantly higher than the one outlined in the Power Development Plan VIII. Minister Nguyen Hong Dien also suggested that the growth forecast needs to be revised. Accordingly, the baseline scenario should be adjusted to 45-50% of the Power Development Plan VIII. “Since we have set a target of 8% GDP growth in 2025, and 10% growth annually from 2026 to 2030, the baseline scenario should be 45-50%, the high scenario 60-65%, and the extreme scenario 70-75%,” Minister Dien stated.

Regarding nuclear power, experts agree that completing the construction of the first plant by 2031 is a major challenge, requiring thorough preparation in technology and human resources, but it can be achieved with determination and appropriate mechanisms. In fact, Mr. Kiet believes that, based on experience from previous feasibility studies, Vietnam can shorten the implementation time, aiming to complete the first two nuclear power plants within 5-6 years. Minister Nguyen Hong Dien added that Vietnam will develop concentrated nuclear power and small-scale nuclear power nationwide. Therefore, this plan proposes that by 2030, not only Ninh Thuan but at least 3 out of the 8 identified locations must be considered suitable for nuclear power plant construction.

(PLVN) - To meet the target of at least 8% growth in 2025 and move towards double digits in subsequent years, the scale of power generation must increase by 2.5 - 3 times the current power capacity.

Comment (0)