On the occasion of Vietnam's National Day on September 2nd, looking back at what Vietnam has achieved and the goals it has yet to achieve over nearly 80 years of independence and almost 40 years of reform, there are many things worth reflecting on.
The achievements are numerous. In just the past three decades, Vietnam has ranked 5th in the world for GDP per capita growth rate, 23rd in the world for Human Development Index (HDI) growth rate, and is among the top countries globally in poverty reduction.
To date, Vietnam has reached the upper end of the lower -middle-income group, the group with a high HDI index, and the poverty rate has decreased from nearly 50% in the early 1990s to less than 1% today.
However, the key objective of essentially becoming an industrialized country (simply put, reaching the threshold of a high-income country) by 2020 has not been achieved.
The three-decade goal that Vietnam set in the early 1990s was well-founded and supported by practical evidence. Prior to that, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan had already achieved the goal of becoming wealthy within a generation. And over the past three decades, China has also nearly reached this point.
Looking back at history, Vietnam failed to take full advantage of the first opportunity when the Cold War ended and we opened up. As a result, in 1984, the GDP per capita at constant 2022 prices of China and Vietnam were $656 and $670 respectively; but by 2022, Vietnam's was only $4,164, less than one-third of China's $12,720.
Vietnam has faced three problems. First, hesitation in opening up. Second, a failure to prioritize the acceleration of key economic regions to pull the rest of the country along. Third, an over-reluctance to embrace new things and the negative impacts of integration has prevented many localities from truly expanding. These three things are in stark contrast to what successful East Asian economies have done.
The past is gone and the future is coming. The changing global landscape in recent times shows that new opportunities are emerging for Vietnam.
Vietnam needs to avoid past mistakes and effectively apply international experience to its own situation to turn opportunities into reality. We need to accelerate our efforts to become a high-income developed country by 2045 – the year the country celebrates its 100th anniversary of independence. To seize these opportunities, the following issues need to be considered:
First, maintaining a significant role and expanding relations, especially in the economic sphere, is crucial. Independence in foreign relations and maintaining a balance with major powers, particularly between the US and China, must be linked to seizing development opportunities.
Secondly, ensuring internal political stability and encouraging a proactive and innovative spirit among the workforce is crucial. Foreign investors are always concerned about the potential negative impacts of anti-corruption campaigns. Therefore, national leaders need to send clear messages with concrete actions to reassure foreign investors about choosing Vietnam; to reassure civil servants about their work; and to reassure businesses and citizens about their livelihoods.
Thirdly, attracting FDI and foreign investment should be done in a way that creates benefits and convenience for investors, while ensuring that domestic businesses can participate in global value chains. Vietnam must receive technology transfer as well as learn from it.
Fourth, develop new financial services and business support services, prioritizing dynamic economic regions to facilitate deeper internationalization.
Fifth, caution and a proactive approach to risk prevention should be based on the principle of seizing new opportunities, rather than immediately closing down at the first sign of trouble.
The issues mentioned above should be conveyed through clear messages, and the appropriate time would be when senior Vietnamese leaders meet with leaders of other countries, especially the upcoming US leaders.
Tuoitre.vn
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