Experts forecast Vietnam's GDP growth for the whole year 2025

With positive indicators for the first 11 months of 2025, experts predict that the GDP growth target of over 8% is within reach. Photo: Hai Nguyen

In the first 11 months of 2025, Vietnam's economy recorded many positive signals with a clear recovery momentum in most areas. According to data from the General Statistics Office ( Ministry of Finance ), international trade activities continued to flourish when total import-export turnover reached 839.75 billion USD, up 17.2% over the same period; the trade balance maintained a trade surplus of more than 20 billion USD, contributing to macroeconomic stability.

FDI inflows continued to be a bright spot, with registered capital of 33.69 billion USD and implemented capital of 23.6 billion USD, both up from the previous year, showing that Vietnam remains attractive to foreign investors. Domestic consumption recovered steadily as total retail sales and service revenue increased by 9.1%. Industrial production increased by 9.3%, of which the manufacturing and processing industry increased by more than 10%, continuing to play the role of growth driver. Tourism took off with more than 19 million international arrivals, thanks to favorable visa policies and strong promotional activities.

According to Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang - economic expert, with the above figures, GDP growth for the whole year of 2025 is forecast to reach over 8%. By 2026, if we make good use of the driving forces including public investment, import and export, FDI, consumption, tourism, digital transformation, green transformation, GDP growth can approach 10%.

However, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang also noted that Vietnam still faces challenges such as slow institutional improvement and digitalization; geopolitical risks affecting the supply chain; limited logistics infrastructure; high business costs...

“If the newly issued policies are implemented in the right rhythm, combined with the recovery of international trade, Vietnam can completely maintain a high growth rate, creating a solid foundation for the breakthrough period in 2026” - Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang assessed.

Previously, many international organizations also raised their forecasts for Vietnam's economic growth. In the latest report published in early December, on the global economic outlook, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) adjusted its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth to 6.2% for 2026 and 5.8% for 2027. This is a positive signal that shows that Vietnam's economy continues to maintain a solid macroeconomic foundation, even when the international trade context is uncertain.

OECD assessed that 2025 recorded a strong "rebound" of the Vietnamese economy, with GDP in the third quarter of 2025 increasing by 8.2% compared to the same period last year. The main drivers continue to come from final consumption, fixed asset accumulation and export of goods and services.

HSBC has also raised Vietnam's growth forecast to 7.9% for 2025 and 6.7% for 2026. This is also the closest forecast to Vietnam's growth target in 2025 of over 8%. Or United Overseas Bank (UOB) also raised Vietnam's growth forecast for 2025 from 7.5% to 7.7% in its Economic Outlook Report for the fourth quarter.

Laodong.vn

Source: https://laodong.vn/kinh-doanh/chuyen-gia-du-bao-ve-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam-ca-nam-2025-1621769.ldo