Currently, Germany is Vietnam's second largest trading partner in Europe, accounting for over 17% of our exports to the EU (according to 2024 data from Vietnam Customs); and is also an important transit gateway for Vietnamese goods to other markets in Europe. The shift in supply chains is opening doors for Vietnamese goods to penetrate deeper into the German market, not only as mere suppliers but also with the opportunity to participate more deeply in the supply chain value. Along with this, the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) has made a significant contribution, creating momentum to further promote the development of bilateral trade.
According to the Vietnamese Trade Counselor in Germany, the EVFTA is a crucial factor in maintaining bilateral trade growth amidst the severe impact of Covid-19, the Ukraine war, and the Red Sea conflict on global trade, which disrupted supply chains. Assessing the growth rate of trade between Vietnam and Germany in the first 10 months of 2025, Counselor Dang Thi Thanh Phuong stated that Vietnam-Germany trade has shown positive growth in 2025, with bilateral trade turnover reaching over US$11.14 billion in the first 10 months of 2025, an increase of 15.1% compared to the first 10 months of 2024.
Vietnam recorded a trade surplus of nearly $4 billion with Germany in the first nine months of 2025.
According to a document published in the Vietnam Trade Journal – Q3/2025, citing statistics from Vietnam Customs, in Q3/2025 alone, bilateral trade between Vietnam and Germany reached US$3.3 billion, a slight decrease of 0.8% compared to Q2/2025 but still an increase of 8.7% compared to Q3/2024. For the first nine months of 2025, total bilateral import and export turnover reached US$9.94 billion, an increase of 15.2% compared to the same period last year. Regarding the trade balance, Vietnam recorded a trade surplus of nearly US$4 billion with Germany after nine months of 2025. The growth in Vietnam's trade with Germany is occurring against the backdrop of positive signs in the German economy .
On the other hand, data from the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) shows that Germany's GDP in the third quarter of 2025 remained flat compared to the previous quarter, but increased by 0.3% compared to the same period last year. Along with this, Germany's trade turnover also grew by nearly 2.5%, with exports in the first nine months of 2025 reaching €1,176.5 billion, up 0.7%; while imports increased even more sharply, by 4.8%, reaching €1,025 billion. In early October 2025, the German government revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast upwards to 0.2%, replacing the zero growth forecast given in April. This is seen as a sign of recovery for the largest economy in the eurozone after two consecutive years of recession. For 2026, GDP is projected to grow by 1.3%, and continue to grow by 1.4% in 2027. Much of this growth in the coming years will be driven by higher public spending, particularly through infrastructure investment funds and expanded defense spending.
By the end of Q3/2025, Vietnam's exports to Germany reached US$6.96 billion, a sharp increase of 19.4% compared to the same period in 2024, double the overall export growth rate of Vietnam to the entire EU bloc (9.5%). This export growth came from both agricultural and aquatic products and electronics, specifically: For the agricultural, forestry, and aquatic products group, export turnover reached US$1.52 billion, an increase of 58.4% compared to the same period in 2024, accounting for 21.8% of total goods exports to Germany.
In this group, most items achieved double-digit growth, led by coffee at over $940.33 million, up 94.7%; seafood at $162.13 million, up 10.9%; cashew nuts at over $153.47 million, up 43.9%; pepper at nearly $99.5 million, up 43.4%; fruits and vegetables at over $61 million, up 39.8%; wood and wood products increased by 8.1%, reaching $64.8 million..., with only rubber decreasing by 25%. As for the manufacturing group, total turnover reached nearly $5 billion, an increase of 11.7% compared to the first nine months of 2024, accounting for 71.5% of the total. The main items in this group include: Machinery, equipment, tools and other spare parts, reaching over $1 billion, up 13.6%; Computers, electronic products and components reached $899.5 million, an increase of 20.6%; notably, traditional export items such as textiles and garments saw a resurgence in growth, reaching $662.73 million, an increase of 17.7%; and footwear reached $530.9 million, an increase of 0.9%.
Notably, exports of iron and steel products surged 6.2 times compared to the same period last year, reaching US$31.6 million. In the third quarter of 2025 alone, Vietnam's exports to Germany reached over US$2.2 billion, a 10.6% increase compared to the same period last year. Statistics show that the processed industrial goods group, including textiles, footwear, telephones, computers, machinery and equipment, showed signs of slowing down. However, the agricultural, forestry, and fisheries group continued to grow strongly compared to the same period last year, with coffee increasing by 20.3%, seafood by 19.1%, cashew nuts by 71.3%, pepper by 13.3%, fruits and vegetables by 85%, tea by 95.5%, and wood and wood products by 30.4%. This trend indicates a high demand for imported goods to stockpile for consumption during the Christmas and New Year holidays in Germany.
Meanwhile, preliminary figures from the German Federal Statistical Office show that retail sales in Germany in September 2025, after adjusting for calendar and seasonal factors, increased by 0.2% in real (adjusted prices) and 0.1% in nominal (unadjusted prices) compared to August 2025. Compared to the same period in September 2024, retail sales also increased by 0.2% in real prices and 1.7% in nominal prices. Retail sales of food in September 2025 increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month in both real and nominal prices (adjusted for calendar and seasonal factors). At the same time, compared to September 2024, they increased by 0.2% in real prices and 2.9% in nominal prices. In the non-food retail sector, September 2025 sales decreased by 0.6% compared to the previous month, both at real and nominal prices. However, compared to September 2024, sales in this sector increased by 0.2% at real prices and by 1.1% at nominal prices.
According to data from the European Statistical Agency (Eurostat), in the first eight months of 2025, Vietnam ranked first in ASEAN and fourth in the Asian region in terms of goods exports to the German market. Notably, with an increase of over 19%, Vietnam had the strongest export growth rate to Germany among the leading suppliers, and its market share also increased from 0.7% to 0.8%. Specifically, Vietnam's market share of coffee exports to Germany increased from 14.9% to 16.9%; cashew nuts from 46.8% to 56.3%; pepper from 52.5% to 53.7%; seafood from 2.4% to 2.8%; and textiles from 2% to 2.1%...
Many agricultural products are popular with German consumers.
Germany is a leading partner of Vietnam within the European Union, particularly in the agricultural, forestry, and fisheries trade. Exports to this market are projected to continue growing positively in the fourth quarter of 2025 and throughout 2026, supported by the recovery of the German economy and the advantages of the Free Trade Agreement between Vietnam and the European Union (EVFTA). Since the EVFTA came into effect in August 2020, the trade turnover of agricultural, forestry, and fisheries products between the two countries has achieved stable growth. In 2024 alone, exports of agricultural, forestry, and fisheries products from Vietnam to Germany reached US$1.3 billion (a 32% increase compared to 2023); imports from Germany reached nearly US$200 million (a 23.9% increase). Vietnam's main export items include coffee, seafood, cashew nuts, fruits and vegetables, wood and wood products, tea, and handicrafts made from rattan, bamboo, and sedge, carpets, etc., which are popular with German and European consumers. Conversely, Vietnam mainly imports milk and dairy products, pesticides, fertilizer raw materials, rubber, etc., from Germany.
According to assessments, the structure of goods traded between the two countries is complementary, not directly competitive. Germany is currently Vietnam's seventh largest market for agricultural products, accounting for 2.1% of total agricultural, forestry, and fisheries exports. It is also an important gateway for Vietnamese goods to access the EU market with over 500 million people and a total food import demand of approximately 160 billion Euros per year.
Among key commodities, Germany is currently Vietnam's largest coffee export market, while Vietnam is also the second largest supplier of coffee to Germany. According to Eurostat, in the first eight months of 2025, Germany spent over €5 billion importing coffee, a 54% increase compared to the same period last year. Imports from Brazil reached €1.4 billion, up 31.2%; from Vietnam reached €864.7 million, up 73.9%; and from Honduras reached €389 million, up 77.6%. This result has led to a declining market share for Brazilian coffee in Germany, while that of Vietnam and several other countries is increasing. The outlook for coffee consumption in Germany between 2025 and 2030 is projected to be stable, opening up many new opportunities for export businesses, including Vietnam. As the largest coffee consumer market in Europe, approximately 75% of German adults maintain a daily coffee-drinking habit, averaging over 6.5 kg per person per year. This provides a solid foundation for maintaining high coffee demand both now and in the future.
According to Mordor Intelligence estimates, the German coffee market will reach approximately US$7.5 billion in 2025 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, projected to reach US$8.5 billion by 2030. The traditional coffee segment continues to dominate the German market, holding 84.87% of the market share in 2024, thanks to its ability to maintain consistent quality and competitive pricing. However, the specialty coffee segment is experiencing explosive growth with a CAGR of 8.93% between 2025 and 2030, more than three times the overall market growth rate. This growth is driven by consumers' increasing understanding of coffee origins, processing methods, and flavors. Therefore, to boost coffee exports to Germany in the coming period, Vietnamese businesses need to focus on differentiated products including high-quality coffee, processed coffee, certified coffee, and specialty coffee, instead of exporting raw coffee as they do now. In addition, they should make good use of the benefits from the EVFTA agreement to promote coffee exports to this market in the future.
Regarding imports, in the third quarter of 2025, Vietnam imported $1.1 billion worth of goods from Germany, an increase of 6.7% compared to the second quarter of 2025 and a 5.2% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024. Cumulatively from the beginning of the year to the end of September 2025, import turnover reached $2.98 billion, an increase of 6.6% compared to the same period in 2024. Vietnam's import turnover from Germany increased in the processed and manufactured goods group, with the main imported items being machinery, equipment and spare parts, reaching approximately $1.11 million, an increase of 14.3%; pharmaceuticals, reaching over $313 million, an increase of 9.8%; chemicals, reaching $210.8 million, a decrease of 35.9%; and chemical products, reaching $200.5 million, a decrease of 5.7%. Computers, electronic products and components reached over $162.23 million, an increase of 38.2%...
While global trade faces numerous prolonged shocks, economic relations between Vietnam and Germany have maintained stable growth. Positive growth in bilateral trade volume demonstrates that the need for cooperation between the two economies remains undiminished. Initial signs of recovery in the German economy are becoming a driving force for Vietnamese businesses to expand their presence in Europe. This growth rate is noteworthy given that consumer demand in Europe has not fully recovered, and many of Vietnam's major export markets are still affected by geopolitical instability and supply chain risks.
Source: https://moit.gov.vn/tin-tuc/thi-truong-nuoc-ngoai/duc-giu-vung-vi-tri-doi-tac-thuong-mai-lon-thu-hai-cua-viet-nam-tai-eu.html
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