Maintaining agricultural growth momentum

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development , in the first six months of 2024, the agricultural trade surplus reached approximately US$8.28 billion, an increase of 62.4% compared to the same period in 2023; GDP growth in the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector reached 3.34%, contributing 5.36% to the overall increase in added value of the entire economy. These results provide a solid foundation for the breakthrough of the entire sector in the second half of 2024.

Processing pineapples for export at Dong Giao Export Food Joint Stock Company ( Ninh Binh province). (Photo by Duc Khanh)

In the first six months of 2024, total exports of agricultural, forestry, and aquatic products are estimated at US$29.2 billion, an increase of 19% compared to the same period in 2023. Simultaneously, total imports of agricultural, forestry, and aquatic products reached approximately US$20.92 billion.

Both production and exports increased sharply.

According to Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Phung Duc Tien, in 2024, the export value of agricultural, forestry, and aquatic products nationwide is fully capable of reaching 54-55 billion USD. Currently, seven products/product groups have export values exceeding 1 billion USD: coffee, rubber, rice, fruits and vegetables, cashew nuts, shrimp, and wood and wood products. Of these, rice and cashew nuts have seen increases in both volume and value compared to the same period in 2023. Specifically, rice exports reached 4.68 million tons (up 10.4%), valued at 2.98 billion USD (up 32%); cashew nut exports reached 350,000 tons (up 24.9%), valued at 1.92 billion USD (up 17.4%). Specifically for coffee, although the volume decreased by 10.5%, thanks to a 50.4% increase in average export price, the export value reached US$3.22 billion, a 34.6% increase. With these results, in the first six months of 2024, many commodities achieved high trade surpluses, such as wood and wood products reaching US$6.16 billion, a 22.5% increase; coffee reaching US$3.14 billion, a 36.2% increase; fruits and vegetables reaching US$2.42 billion, a 35.3% increase; rice reaching US$2.31 billion, a 27% increase; and shrimp reaching US$1.43 billion, a 13.3% increase compared to the same period in 2023.

Regarding markets, in the first six months of 2024, exports of agricultural, forestry, and aquatic products to major markets in the Americas reached US$6.6 billion, a 20% increase compared to the same period in 2023; Africa reached US$565 million, a 17.1% increase; Asia reached US$13.9 billion, a 17.8% increase; Europe reached US$3.7 billion, a 32.8% increase; and Oceania reached US$405 million, an 18.2% increase. The US, China, and Japan continued to be the three largest export markets for Vietnamese agricultural, forestry, and aquatic products. Export value to the US accounted for 20.7%, a 20.8% increase compared to the same period last year; China accounted for 20.2%, a 9.5% increase; and Japan accounted for 6.7%, a 5% increase.

Besides exports, agricultural, forestry, and fisheries production also showed many positive signs, contributing significantly to the growth of the entire sector and affirming its role as a pillar of the economy. According to the General Statistics Office, in the first six months of this year, agricultural production was generally bountiful and prices were favorable. This is reflected in the fact that while the output of many key agricultural products increased, selling prices also remained high. On average, in the first six months of 2024, the price index of agricultural products increased by 10.29% compared to the same period in 2023, with the price index of annual crops increasing by 11.27%; and perennial crops increasing by 22.3%.

Currently, the fruit and vegetable sector holds the leading position in agricultural exports, with a turnover of nearly 3.5 billion USD, an increase of over 28% compared to the same period last year. This result is largely due to the relatively high fruit production in the first six months of the year, with durian production estimated at 487.7 thousand tons, an increase of 20.3% compared to the same period last year; other fruits such as guava, jackfruit, passion fruit, and longan also saw increases of about 3-6%. The selling prices of most fruit products increased, averaging a 6.12% increase in the first six months of 2024 compared to the average of the same period in 2023.

For the fisheries sector, in the first six months of 2024, the estimated fisheries production reached 4.39 million tons, an increase of 2.7% compared to the same period last year. Of this, aquaculture production was estimated at approximately 2.44 million tons, an increase of 4.1%; and fishing production was estimated at 1.95 million tons, an increase of 1.0%. This represents a large and abundant source of raw materials for export, helping the fisheries sector achieve export revenue of over 4.4 billion USD in the first six months of the year, an increase of nearly 7% compared to the same period in 2023. Specifically, shrimp exports brought in over 1.6 billion USD, and pangasius exports brought in 922 million USD, increasing by 7% and 6% respectively compared to the same period last year.

Accelerate in the second half of the year.

According to Dang Phuc Nguyen, Secretary General of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, the export value of fruits and vegetables is likely to reach US$7 billion in 2024. China remains Vietnam's main export market. Data from the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) shows that in the first five months of 2024 alone, fruit and vegetable exports to China reached US$1.7 billion, a 33.4% increase compared to the same period in 2023.

In 2024, the export value of fruits and vegetables is likely to reach US$7 billion. Vietnam's main export market remains China. Data from the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) shows that in the first five months of 2024 alone, fruit and vegetable exports to China reached US$1.7 billion, an increase of 33.4% compared to the same period in 2023.

Secretary General of Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association Dang Phuc Nguyen

Vietnam and China are expected to sign a new protocol on the export of frozen durian, passion fruit, and chili peppers in 2024. They have also agreed to sign a protocol on fresh coconuts, opening up export prospects for Vietnamese coconuts. Currently, China's demand for coconut imports is very high and shows a tendency to grow year after year. Meanwhile, China's coconut production only meets about 10% of its domestic consumption needs, with the remainder being imported. Therefore, Vietnam's fruit and vegetable exports to the Chinese market are expected to continue to grow favorably in the coming period.

Besides fruits and vegetables, seafood exports to China also have promising prospects towards the end of the year. According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Processing and Export, China's demand for shrimp imports is expected to increase again from the third quarter of 2024 to serve the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival period, from September 17th to October 7th. Therefore, Vietnamese shrimp exports to China are likely to increase during this period. For pangasius (catfish), the Chinese market is also recovering strongly with high demand and stable prices.

According to Le Van Quang, General Director of Minh Phu Seafood Group Joint Stock Company, Minh Phu is shifting its export focus to China – a populous market with enormous consumption capacity, and a border with Vietnam that helps avoid the risks of long-distance sea transport. Minh Phu aims to increase sales to the potential Chinese market by 10%, then 20%, and even higher in the future. To enhance competitiveness in the Chinese and international markets, Minh Phu's strategic focus is to achieve the same price for Vietnamese raw shrimp as Ecuadorian shrimp by 2030; and to be able to self-supply 50% of its raw shrimp needs for its processing plants by 2035.

Besides the main market of China, the Ministry of Industry and Trade stated that it will continue to focus on promoting the export of agricultural, forestry, and aquatic products to other key markets such as the United States, Japan, and the European Union; and open up new markets with significant potential, such as the Halal Islamic market, the Middle East, and Africa, to maintain export growth momentum in the second half of 2024.

Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien stated that the world's demand for imported agricultural products such as rice and vegetables is increasing due to supply disruptions in many countries caused by armed conflicts, geopolitical competition, and trade wars between major powers. In this context, Vietnam is determined to promote sustainable exports while ensuring national food security.

Accordingly, Vietnam will continue to negotiate, sign, and upgrade free trade agreements (FTAs) with partners in potential markets, facilitating businesses to diversify markets, products, and supply chains to boost exports. The Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue to coordinate with ministries, sectors, localities, and industry associations to support businesses in effectively utilizing the preferential mechanisms of the FTAs that Vietnam has signed, especially maximizing the use of tariff quotas allocated to Vietnam; proactively guide and support traders in improving their production and business capacity, negotiation skills, contract signing and implementation capabilities, and effectively handling international trade defense cases and disputes.

At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will coordinate with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in negotiation activities, focusing on coordinating negotiations on market access, animal and plant quarantine, and other related technical requirements to facilitate the export of more Vietnamese agricultural products to the world market.

Source