Falling rice prices are just a short-term trend

It is predicted that rice prices will recover in the coming time when the year-end demand for imported rice also increases from traditional customers of Vietnam.

Asian Rice Market Outlook

Rice price Vietnam's 5% broken rice standard is currently at 559 USD/ton, down from the beginning of the year. After a long period of price growth, this downward adjustment period of Vietnamese rice is part of the general downward trend of world rice prices.

According to international experts, when the prospect of policy easing rice export With India's supply expected to increase in the coming time, rice prices in Asia are likely to cool down as India remains the world's largest rice export market.

India is considering allowing white rice exports at a fixed duty. In addition, authorities may also scrap the 20% duty on parboiled rice exports and impose a fixed duty to prevent under-invoicing of goods.

The price of Vietnam's standard 5% broken rice is currently at 559 USD/ton, down from the beginning of the year. Illustrative photo.

Experts say India’s move to ease export restrictions will help cool Asian rice prices, which hit a more than 15-year high in January and have remained historically high ever since. This will be good news for several countries in West Africa and the Middle East that rely on the South Asian nation for most of their staple food needs.

Statistics show that India remains the world's largest rice exporter, followed by Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and the US. Indian rice export prices continued to fall last week, amid the possibility that the country may ease export restrictions after record stockpiles. Specifically, the price of 5% broken parboiled rice from India was at $537-$543 per tonne last week, down from $539-$545 per tonne the previous week.

Meanwhile, Thailand's 5% broken rice fell to $570 a tonne, its lowest in eight months, from $570-$575 a tonne last week.

Ensure stable supply

Illustration photo.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade , the demand for rice in the world is still high and we can still promote rice exports from now until the end of the year. According to the experience of many export enterprises, the important thing that Vietnamese enterprises need to be careful about is ensuring rice quality and maintaining export performance.

Mr. Tran Thanh Hai - Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade said: "It can be said that currently the rice price has been adjusted down, but it is still at a relatively high level. Our businesses must always be ready to prepare for all situations. The important factor here is to ensure the quality of rice between shipments.

Second, we must also ensure competition and avoid unfair competition to devalue rice. Because that will affect not only one business, but also many of our rice exporting businesses."

Businesses expect rice exports to improve at the end of the year

The adjustment of rice export prices at this time helps businesses to be proactive and purchase paddy more easily. It is predicted that rice prices will recover in the coming time when the demand for imported rice usually increases at the end of the year from traditional customers of Vietnam.

As of early July, localities had harvested nearly 390,000 hectares out of more than 1.4 million hectares of summer-autumn crop, with an estimated yield of 6.2 tons/hectare. Abundant supply is always a driving force to promote rice exports in the coming time.

According to the plan from now until the end of the year, Tan Long Group will have to boost the export of over 400,000 tons of rice to complete the year's target. Positive signals from two traditional partners, Indonesia and the Philippines, have also strengthened the motivation to complete the above plan.

Recognizing that the demand for rice imports from the world market from now until the end of the year is still high, business representatives said that this is an opportunity for them to buy rice from farmers at good prices.

"We only offer to sell when we have the quantity in hand. That way, we can minimize the risk of selling first without having any customers...", said Mr. Le Anh Nam - Head of Rice Export Department, Tan Long Group Joint Stock Company.

The adjustment of rice export prices at this time helps businesses to be proactive and purchase rice more easily. Illustrative photo.

Since the beginning of July, Nhat Minh Company ( Can Tho City) has regularly exported about 150 tons of rice per day. The average price of 5% broken rice is 600 USD/ton and 25% broken rice is 544 USD. Although it is still 50 USD/ton lower than at the beginning of the year, compared to the same period, this price has increased by about 30% to 35% and has not stopped yet.

Mr. Nguyen Van Nhat - General Director of Hoang Minh Nhat Joint Stock Company said: "Countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia and some other countries have quite stable import demand for domestic consumption at a high level. Each year, these two countries alone can import 4 - 5 million tons. I think that this demand will also be stable in the long term."

Export opportunities for Vietnamese rice from now until the end of the year also come from the Chinese market, because the end of the year often increases demand from this billion-people market. Businesses have had more customers negotiating to import 5% broken rice at prices from 570 USD/1 ton.

Mr. Nguyen Van Thanh - General Director of Phuoc Thanh IV Production - Trading Company Limited said: "We also try to negotiate the best price so that businesses and farmers can make more profit."

According to the General Statistics Office, in the first 6 months of this year, Vietnam exported more than 4.5 million tons of rice, reaching a turnover of nearly 3 billion USD. Compared to the same period last year, rice exports increased by more than 10% in volume and 32% in value. Many businesses believe that rice exports will continue to grow steadily until the end of this year.

Source: https://baoquangninh.vn/gia-gao-giam-chi-la-xu-huong-ngan-han-3310816.html