Russian imports into the EU have fallen to record lows, but the "headache" remains.

While EU imports from Russia fell to a record low in the second quarter of 2024, there are still signs that sanctions imposed by Brussels on Moscow are being circumvented through trade with third countries.

Data released on August 28 by the EU's official statistical agency, Eurostat, showed that imports into the bloc from its eastern neighbor fell by 16% between the first and second quarters of this year.

In June, the total value of imported goods fell to €2.47 billion – the lowest monthly figure since Eurostat began collecting data in January 2002. This was followed by April and May, which saw the second and third lowest monthly import figures on record, at €2.66 billion and €2.89 billion respectively.

Exports also recorded a similarly sharp decline, falling 9.5% quarter-on-quarter to €2.43 billion in June, the lowest level since January 2003 and the third lowest ever recorded.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Photo: The Telegraph

EU imports from Russia fell sharply immediately after Moscow launched its special military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, but the decline has slowed since the second quarter of 2023. Exports followed a similar trend, with the later declines being more stable than the initial ones.

Philipp Lausberg, an analyst at the European Policy Centre (EPC), told Euractiv that one possible reason for this situation is that recent rounds of sanctions, among Brussels' 14 packages of sanctions against Moscow, have focused less on banning imports of specific items, such as oil and coal, and more on enforcing and preventing loopholes.

Alexander Kolyandr, a non-resident senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPS), suggests another potential reason for this situation is the relative stability of commodity prices – particularly energy prices – since the beginning of 2023.

"Russia is selling liquefied natural gas (LNG). The supply is constant, but Europe also doesn't want to reduce its purchases of anything from Russia – and therefore, the final outcome basically depends on the market price of the commodity," Kolyandr told Euractiv.

While Russian imports into the EU have decreased, a persistent problem remains: circumvention of sanctions through parallel trade mechanisms. This is why trade between European countries and countries in Asia, the Caucasus, and the Middle East has surged since February 2022.

Mr. Kolyandr noted that between 2021 and 2023, EU exports to Uzbekistan nearly doubled (from €2.30 billion to €4.35 billion), sales to Armenia nearly tripled (from €757 million to €2.16 billion), and exports to Kyrgyzstan more than tenfold (from €263 million to €2.73 billion).

"Russia may have circumvented sanctions by trading with third countries," the expert at CEPS said, adding that non-Soviet countries such as China and Türkiye could also be key routes to avoid sanctions.

Meanwhile, Lausberg said that while the circumvention of sanctions is a headache for the EU, the methods used to avoid sanctions are also harming Russia, forcing it to buy products such as high-tech goods and electronics at higher prices than before.

Minh Duc (According to Euractiv)

Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/hang-nga-vao-eu-giam-xuong-muc-thap-ky-luc-nhung-van-de-dau-dau-van-con-204240829202341737.htm