What are the scenarios for economic growth in 2025?

Three economic growth scenarios have been developed for 2025, corresponding to the targets of 6.5-7% as decided by the National Assembly and 8-10% as the Government aims to achieve. Which scenario unfolds will depend on the actions of the entire economy.

Three economic growth scenarios have been developed for 2025, corresponding to the targets of 6.5-7% as decided by the National Assembly and 8-10% as the Government aims to achieve. Which scenario unfolds will depend on the actions of the entire economy.

Developing a strong domestic market; implementing supply-demand connection and trade promotion activities; and achieving a 10-12% increase in total retail sales of goods and services revenue are among the tasks mentioned in Resolution 01/2025.

Three growth scenarios

Instead of just one scenario like in previous years, three economic growth scenarios have been developed for 2025. These three scenarios were outlined in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP on the main tasks and solutions for implementing the socio-economic development plan and state budget estimates for 2025, recently issued by the Prime Minister .

These three scenarios correspond to the socio-economic development goals set for 2025. Specifically, according to the National Assembly Resolution, GDP growth in 2025 is targeted at 6.5-7%, striving to reach 7-7.5%. Meanwhile, the Government is determined to achieve an 8% growth rate for the economy, and even higher, possibly reaching double digits (10%), if conditions are favorable.

Accordingly, in the lowest scenario, to achieve an annual economic growth rate of 6.5-7%, the growth rate in the first quarter must be 6.2-6.6%. This figure is 6.5-7% in the second quarter; 6.4-6.8% in the first six months; 6.6-7.1% in the third quarter; 6.5-7.1% in the first nine months; and 6.6-7.2% in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, in the scenario of an 8% economic growth rate, as targeted by the Government, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter must reach 7.7%. The corresponding figures for the second quarter, six months, third quarter, nine months, and fourth quarter are 8%; 7.9%; 8.1%; 7.9%; and 8.3%, respectively.

The highest and perhaps most challenging target is the 10% growth rate that the Government expects to achieve, in order to lay the foundation for a period of accelerated growth and breakthroughs from 2026-2030, with double-digit growth. Accordingly, GDP growth must reach at least 9% in all quarters of the year. Specifically, Q1 must be 9.4%; Q2 10%; 6 months 9.7%; Q3 19%; 9 months 9.8%; Q4 10.5%; and the whole year 10%.

Looking at these figures, it seems that a growth scenario of 6.5-7% is the most achievable. Given the 7.09% growth rate in 2024, coupled with the more positive trends in the Vietnamese and global economies, achieving a growth rate similar to 2024 is feasible.

In its recently published report, UOB Bank raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to 7%, from the previous 6.6%. The bank explained that this increase was due to Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 significantly exceeding the overall forecast (6.7%) and the set target (6.5%). "We expect more positive developments from domestic drivers, such as manufacturing, domestic consumption, and tourism, especially in the first half of the year," UOB experts stated.

Speaking earlier at the Spring Economic Forum, Mr. Suan Teck Kin, Economist and Managing Director of Global Market and Economic Research at UOB Bank (Singapore), stated that although Vietnam will face many significant challenges across various economic sectors, there are also three notable opportunities to boost economic development this year.

With an impressive GDP growth rate of 7.09% in 2024, Vietnam has demonstrated enduring strength amidst a volatile global environment. This provides a solid foundation for Vietnam to overcome current challenges and seize new development opportunities in the future.

Meanwhile, the research team of expert Can Van Luc and the BIDV Training and Research Institute considers the 7-7.5% growth scenario as "negative," with about a 20% chance of occurring. The hypothetical situation assumes increased external risks and more negative impacts, slower-than-expected global economic growth, and domestic growth drivers that have not yet been as effective as expected or are only at a level equivalent to 2024... In other words, according to expert Can Van Luc, GDP growth will at least reach 7-7.5%, equivalent to the target set by the National Assembly for the Government.

According to the research team led by expert Can Van Luc, the remaining two scenarios have a 60% probability of occurring, specifically the 8% growth scenario. This is considered the "baseline" scenario, assuming that the economic recovery continues, along with a determination to achieve institutional breakthroughs, strengthened confidence among businesses and the public, and more effective utilization of both new and traditional growth drivers. The optimistic scenario, with growth of 9-9.5%, has a 20% probability of occurring. This scenario requires higher-than-expected global economic growth; more effective utilization of growth drivers; and the promotion of economic restructuring and strategic breakthroughs.

The economic path to 2025

Many economic growth scenarios have been presented. Therefore, the direction the economy will take will depend heavily on the solutions and actions implemented by ministries, localities, and the business community. It will also depend on developments in the global economy, global geopolitical fluctuations, and the policies of the US President Donald Trump's administration.

Several challenges continue to be pointed out by economic experts, although there remains a fairly strong consensus on the growth potential of the Vietnamese economy.

"Currently, the growth rate of final consumption is only about 5-6%, compared to double-digit growth before the pandemic. To boost growth, we need to stimulate final consumption in the economy more strongly," said Mr. Nguyen Bich Lam, former Director General of the General Statistics Office, at a recent Economic Forum. According to him, we cannot be complacent with this driver, which currently accounts for 63% of GDP growth.

Many economic growth scenarios have been proposed. Therefore, the direction the economy takes will depend heavily on the solutions and actions that ministries, localities, and the business community will implement.

Similarly, exports may face difficulties as US trade policies change. Disbursement of public investment is also unlikely to see a breakthrough. New growth drivers are also unlikely to show strong results anytime soon.

Government Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP outlined 12 key tasks and solutions. Among them, institutional breakthroughs were considered the "breakthrough of breakthroughs," requiring early and proactive action to pave the way for development. Alongside this, priority was given to strongly promoting economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, ensuring major economic balances, and achieving a high surplus…

Within these two groups of solutions, the Government directs stronger, more decisive, and timely measures to accelerate the disbursement of public investment capital from the beginning of 2025, especially for nationally important projects, key infrastructure projects, and national target programs; using public investment to lead private investment and strengthening public-private partnerships. At the same time, it aims to build an effective mechanism to attract selective foreign investment in certain potential sectors, creating breakthroughs and new drivers for growth such as chips, semiconductors, innovation, and green hydrogen…

Similarly, it is necessary to promote and create breakthroughs for new growth drivers, develop a green economy, a circular economy, e-commerce, new and efficient business models; and promote emerging industries and sectors…

Among the solutions to boost growth in 2025, Mr. Dau Anh Tuan, Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), emphasized the "growth space" that the business sector can contribute. Therefore, according to Mr. Tuan, it is crucial to address bottlenecks in this sector, ensuring they can quickly bring capital and goods into the economy.

Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung, while emphasizing the necessary steps for the economy to accelerate and achieve breakthroughs in 2025, stressed the importance of unlocking resources from the business sector, including private enterprises, state-owned enterprises, and foreign-invested enterprises. “Each industry, sector, and locality must identify breakthrough targets for the coming period. Dynamic regions and growth poles like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City must achieve higher growth to affirm their role as the leading engine of national growth,” Minister Nguyen Chi Dung stressed.

This task has also been assigned to localities by the Prime Minister. Many localities nationwide, including Ho Chi Minh City, have committed to striving to achieve this goal. At the government meeting with localities, Mr. Nguyen Van Mai, Chairman of the People's Committee of Ho Chi Minh City, affirmed that Ho Chi Minh City has identified 2025 as a year of acceleration to reach the finish line, striving to complete and surpass all socio-economic targets, preparing plans and implementing the necessary conditions to enter the new term with the goal of double-digit growth.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/kich-ban-nao-cho-tang-truong-kinh-te-2025-d240694.html