Vietnam's paint industry is recovering, but unevenly.
Analyzing the paint industry landscape since the Covid-19 pandemic, Mr. Vuong Bac Dau - Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Paint and Ink Association (VPIA) - stated that in 2024, decorative paints continued to play a leading role, accounting for 51.5% of the total industry output. Wood paints accounted for 18.6%, marine paints and protective paints 6.4%, general-purpose paints 6%, coil and roofing paints 6.5%, and other types approximately 6%.
The multi-purpose industrial coatings segment is projected to continue being the fastest-growing segment in 2025-2026. (Illustrative image)
Total industry output is estimated at nearly 500 million liters, an increase of 8.34% compared to 2023, a growth rate considered positive given the ongoing uncertainties in the global economy .
Among these, powder coating was the most impressive growth segment in 2024. With its wide range of applications from industrial and household to interior design, powder coating experienced a strong breakthrough year, partly due to the global economic recovery after the pandemic, and partly due to the wave of manufacturing relocation from China to Vietnam.
Following this trend, coil coating also recorded outstanding growth, mainly due to strong domestic demand. 2024 saw a boom in industrial parks, with expansion areas and investment capital reaching unprecedented levels, leading to a large demand for materials and coil coatings.
In the marine and protective coatings sector, the growth landscape is undergoing significant changes. The global maritime industry is restructuring due to over-concentration in China and South Korea, prompting Nordic countries to reassess their supply chains to reduce dependence. Vietnam is emerging as a potential destination, but its current capacity is still insufficient to accommodate this large-scale shift.
Nevertheless, the marine paint and protective coatings segment has shown signs of revival after the financial difficulties of some major shipbuilding corporations were resolved. This is also a general trend in Japan, which is accelerating investment again to help balance the global shipbuilding supply chain.
The market is highly differentiated, and internal factors will determine the growth trajectory in 2025-2026.
The question is: what are the opportunities and challenges facing the Vietnamese paint industry today? According to Mr. Vuong Bac Dau, in previous years, identifying trends was easier because the paint market followed relatively stable rules and rhythms. However, nowadays, those rules are almost no longer clearly visible. Therefore, the association is forced to approach the issue differently, analyzing the factors that drive and hinder growth.
"Through our observations, we have found that paint segments based on the inherent strengths of the Vietnamese economy, that is, dependent on domestic demand, the development of domestic industry and investment, tend to have more stable and sustainable growth."
Conversely, segments that are overly dependent on external factors, such as global fluctuations, tariff changes, and supply chain restructuring, are highly vulnerable. Just one change in the global market can reverse growth very quickly,” Mr. Wang Beidou shared.
To further clarify the distinction between "internal strength" and "dependence," Mr. Dau cited the example of powder coating. Essentially, the portion of powder coating production by domestic enterprises can be considered to come from the internal strength of the Vietnamese economy. However, a very large portion comes from Chinese enterprises relocating to Vietnam; this is the sector that is dependent on external factors.
Evidence shows that last year, powder coating saw growth of 21-25%, but in reality, the group of businesses whose capital or supply sources shifted from China grew even more strongly, possibly reaching around 50% in 2024. “In 2025-2026, this segment will decline sharply. From a 50% increase, it may only grow by 5-6%. This reflects the industry's high sensitivity to global fluctuations,” Mr. Dau predicted.
Another example is coil coating. This segment has maintained stable growth for many years. Currently, coil coating still plays an important role. Interestingly, this segment is both influenced by the global market and benefits from Vietnam's strong development, especially the boom in industrial zones and the expansion of domestic production.
Meanwhile, paint segments linked to domestic demand, such as multi-purpose industrial paints, have seen a faster and more stable recovery. This group also experienced the least decline during the pandemic and recovered the earliest afterward, thanks to Vietnam maintaining its industrial development momentum and infrastructure investment.
Conversely, wood paints, once a crucial segment, have declined sharply following the downturn in the wood export industry. Decorative paints have yet to escape their prolonged slump, despite showing signs of improvement in 2024.
Based on an analysis of growth groups according to their "internal strengths" and "dependence," the Vietnam Paint and Ink Association has presented a forecast for the 2025-2026 period. Accordingly, multi-purpose industrial paints are projected to continue to be the strongest growth segment of the Vietnamese paint industry. This growth is driven by public investment, production expansion, and the demand for supporting industries. This segment is the most stable because it directly relies on the development of the domestic economy.
The resurgence of the domestic shipbuilding industry, coupled with the global supply chain rebalancing policy, will drive strong growth in the marine paint and protective coatings segment. Although Vietnam may not yet have the capacity to handle large-scale shifts, it will still benefit from the renewed demand in the shipbuilding industry.
In the decorative paint segment, after a period of decline, this segment is gradually recovering. It is projected to grow by approximately 5% in 2024. In 2025, it is forecast to increase by 9-10% and continue its positive momentum in 2026, thanks to a warming real estate market and increased demand for residential construction.
While coil coatings have benefited greatly from the industrial boom, this segment is facing disadvantages due to the US imposing anti-dumping duties on steel, virtually closing export opportunities. The Ukrainian market, once an indirect export gateway, has also shrunk due to the financial crisis. This will be a highly volatile and unpredictable segment.
Powder coating was the fastest-growing segment in 2024 but is also considered the most vulnerable to a significant slowdown in the coming period, due to its heavy reliance on businesses relocating from China and supply chain fluctuations.
Industry experts also note that the Vietnamese paint market is clearly segmenting. Segments based on domestic strengths, especially multi-purpose industrial paints, marine paints - protective paints and decorative paints, will continue to be the mainstays for the next 2-3 years. Conversely, segments dependent on global factors will be difficult to predict, experiencing rapid growth but also carrying significant risks.
Mr. Vuong Bac Dau, Vice Chairman of VPIA, emphasized: Industries based on Vietnam's domestic strengths will be the foundation for sustainable growth for the entire paint and ink industry. This group has the potential to maintain long-term growth momentum, is less volatile, and has strategic significance in shaping the market in the 2025-2026 period.
Source: https://congthuong.vn/thi-truong-phan-hoa-manh-son-cong-nghiep-dan-dat-giai-doan-2025-2026-434465.html
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