The latest US aid package for Ukraine will not be enough to create a major turning point as Kyiv faces numerous difficulties, and arms aid is not the solution to everything.
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| Ukrainian soldiers receive a shipment of Javelin anti-tank missiles donated by the United States. (Source: AP) |
Ukraine is still "far from shore".
The Economist , on April 24th, used the analogy that "throwing a life vest to someone about to drown might remove the immediate danger. But if that person is miles from shore and in freezing water, they could still be in danger."
That's how The Economist described Ukraine after US President Joe Biden signed a long-delayed bill on April 24th, which would allocate $61 billion in financial and military aid to help Ukraine confront Russia, as well as provide funding for Israel and Taiwan (China).
If this aid is not approved, Ukraine faces the risk of losing more territory in a new offensive planned by Moscow in early summer. Although the $61 billion would help Ukraine survive, the country is still "very far from shore."
The good news for Ukraine is that the latest US aid package will soon be deployed to the front lines. Since funds began running out in the fall, the shortage of crucial supplies, especially artillery shells, has become more urgent than ever.
Russia possesses five times more artillery firepower than Ukraine. With ammunition already stockpiled at US bases in Poland, Ukraine's firepower constraints will now be removed. Once artillery reaches Ukraine, Russia will face greater risks as it concentrates troops and tanks for new offensives. The transfer of much-needed drones and interceptor missiles to Ukraine will take longer, but ultimately Russia will no longer control the skies, particularly on the front lines.
A worrying reality
However, according to The Economist , this good news is not enough to alleviate some worrying realities.
Firstly , while the new aid package will bolster Ukraine's defenses, it is insufficient to help the country regain territory, which currently accounts for approximately 18% of Ukraine's land area. The lessons learned from last summer's failed counteroffensive came at a heavy cost to Ukraine in terms of both human and material resources.
Secondly , the battle in the US Congress to get the bill passed is a sign of the trouble ahead. The $61 billion figure is nearly equal to the amount the US spent on Ukraine in the first 20 months of the war, after which its funding ran out. Therefore, the new funds may not be used up by the end of 2025. Even if there is money left over, it's not guaranteed to be used if Donald Trump is elected President. If Biden remains President, the recent battle in Congress could repeat itself next year. The latest US aid package may be the last.
Ideally, the West's goal is a stable, secure, and prosperous Ukraine within defensible borders, progressing toward membership in the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
According to The Economist, internal US issues related to support for Ukraine mean that European leaders realize they will have to shoulder more responsibility to achieve this goal and will need a larger defense industry.
Although Europe is the largest provider of financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, in terms of military support, European and American spending are nearly equal. Thanks to American aid, European leaders have more time to figure out how to help Ukraine win. The scale of this task means their work is equally urgent.
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